Blogging the election

The exponential growth in political blogs will have a negligible effect on the outcome of election 2007, but will set the foundation for online debate in future elections. By Malachy Browne


Number of seats:  4


Several seats in danger here: Arthur Morgan (SF), Seamus Kirk (FF), Fergus O'Dowd (FG), the later from the “imposition” of Mairead McGuinness (FG). Only Dermot Ahern (FF) secure.


Prediction: FF 1; FG 2; SF 1.

Best candidate: Arthur Morgan (SF)

Weakest link: Seamus Kirk (FF)

In the long grass:  Jim D'Arcy (FG)

Tipperary North

Number of seats: 3

Former Fine Gael minister, Michael Lowry (Ind) certain, thereafter uncertain. It is likely Fianna Fail will lose a seat here to Kathleen O'Meara (Lab) but whether the loser is former minister Michael Smith or new TD Máire Hoctor is uncertain.


Prediction: FF 1; Lab 1; Ind 1.

Best candidate: Kathleen O'Meara (Lab0

Weakest link: Michael Smith (FF)

In the long grass: Kathleen O'Meara (Lab)

Donegal North East

Number of seats: 3

Fianna Fail certain to take two seats. The third seat between Fine Gael's Joe McHugh and Sinn Fein's Padraigh MacLouchlain. The curiosity here is which of the three outgoing Fianna Fail TDs will lose: Jim McDaid, Cecilia Keaveney or Niall Blaney.


Prediction: FF2; FG 1.

Best candidate: Joe McHugh (FG)

Dublin Central

Number of seats: 4

Bertie Ahern (FF) will win a quota and a half for himself but may fail to bring in a second Fianna Fail candidate (either Cyprian Brady or Mary FitzPatrick) because of his refusal to abide by the rules he imposes everywhere else on vote management. Tony Gregory (Ind) is secure, Joe Costello (Lab) not secure, especially if Sinn Fein do well.


Prediction: FF 2; Lab 1; Ind 1.

Best candidate: Bertie Ahern (FF)

Dublin North

Number of seats: 4

Only one of the four outgoing TDs is standing, Trevor Sargent (GP) and he seems secure. Clare Daly of the Socialist Party seems likely to take a seat, possibly at the expense of Labour. Fianna Fail not sure of second seat.


Prediction: FF 2; GP 1; SP 1.

Best candidate: Clare Daly (SP)

Weakest link: John O'Leary (FF)

In the long grass: Joe Corr (GP)

Dublin South East

Number of seats: 4

The most marginal constituency in the country. No candidate and no party sure of a seat. Fianna Fail should take a seat, probably with Chris Andrews rather than the more accomplished, Jim O'Callaghan. John Gormley (GP), Michael McDowell  (PD) and Ruairi Quinn (Lab) should all hold their seats.

Best candidate: Ruairi Quinn (Lab)

Weakest link: Chris Andrews (FF)

In the long grass: Daithi Doolan (SF)

Prediction: FF 1; Lab 1; PD 1; PG 1.