All Black Ultimatum

In the last World Cup (2003), the All Blacks humiliated their arch rivals Australia in Sydney by a record 40 point margin just two weeks before the start of the tournament, yet in the semi finals against the very same Australian team the Blacks once again came unstuck, losing and allowing the Aussies to progress, eventually succumbing to England in an historic final. This year All Black Coach Graham Henry and his All Black machine are again the bookies choice, and again the All Blacks and their coaching staff must face the huge national and internal pressure that often hinders their play. Rugby is like GAA in its public expectation in New Zealand, and the All Black Coach is often touted as being more important in New Zealand society than the Prime Minister. Most national coaches that have returned to New Zealand empty handed have been vilified by the media and dropped soon after.

 Graham Henry and the All Blacks must deliver the title this year or live with the tag of ‘World Cup Chokers', something that will not be accepted by the kiwi public. In this year's recent Tri Nation competition the Southern Hemisphere teams flexed their muscle far more impressively that their counterparts from the North. South Africa reverted back their much revered and respected physical game attempting to strangle teams up front but also unleashed some potential new world cup stars in new Springbok number 8 Pierre Spies. Unfortunaly Spies has since been injured and will be a huge blow to the South Africans morale, though the loss of Spies is somewhat balanced by the return from injury of the blond haired flanker Swalk Burger, once voted the best player in the world. 

Burger adds another dimension to South Africa's backrow play, and the Springbok tight five is regarded as one of the most physical in the world game. South Africa then loses the advantage, especially in the midfield where they have always struggled to unearth any serious playmakers. The South African backs are physical and direct, but they are not especially creative like the Irish pairing of say Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy. South Africa's Achilles heel is that like Ireland pre D'Arcy and O'Driscoll, they are forced to rely on building phases and attacking from the opposition twenty-two rather than creating scores from deep where defences are often less structured. In the last 18 months the majority of South Africa's trys from outside their own half have come via the interception prowess of the likes of Springbok winger Brian Habana, but going for the intercept option too often also leaves exploitable gaps outside, something that good teams like France, the All Blacks and even Ireland can use to their advantage. Australia remains something on an unknown quality this year, but in many regards they are the opposite of South Africa. Strong, creative and full of flair in their backline, Australia lacks the perquisite grunt in the pack, especially in the front row where they have always been weak. While South Africa have failed to produce many world class centres in their illustrious history, Australia are the same position as regards their front row. It is hard to name an Australian prop that has ever made a huge impression at the top level, and ironically the man most Australians believed was their best ever cockpit srummager was a player first capped for Argentina before immigrating to Australia, Topo Rodriquez. The world's most capped player, George Gregan, despite his age and lack of a physical tackle, still remains the thinking man's rugby player and can still squeeze the very best out of a limited amount of first phase ball. Gregan's telepathic relationship with his one hundred times capped out half, Steve Larkam, means that even with a limited amount of ball from their pack, Gregan and Larkam are still world beaters in terms of reading the game. In the centres, Stirling Mortlock joins Brian O'Driscoll as the best centre in the world, while the big Fijian winger Lote Tuquiri, despite his publicised problems with discipline off the field, adds the physical edge to Australia's back play. 

The timely return from injury of the unorthodox yet mesmerising fullback Chris Latham means that Australia remain a dangerous team to underrate, with possibly the best set of backs on masse in the game. New Zealand of course remain favourites for the cup and the main reason for this is their perceived strength in player depth. Two years ago the All Blacks were criticised for playing what was deemed to be a second string selection during their off season tour to the Northern Hemisphere, the result of which was a demolition of Wales, Scotland and more importantly France, the latter by nearly 50 points in the first test in Paris. New Zealand, unlike Ireland, can afford to rest key players in the pool stages in France and bonafide world stars like Kiwi out half Dan Carter can be wrapped up in cotton wool, while world class backup players like the underrated Nick Evans will surely carry the All Blacks through unscathed. Ireland on the other hand cannot afford that luxury, and by the time Messer's O'Gara, Hayes, O'Driscoll, O'Connell and D'Arcy get out of the pool stages they would have had to endure two energy sapping matches against both France and Argentina just to qualify. The All Blacks have the best scrum in the world, are shaky at the lineout and in the midfield, but have the best poacher and open side flanker the world has ever seen in captain Ritchie McCaw. The embarrassingly talented Dan Carter pulls the strings at out half and the All Blacks have plenty of strike power on the outsides. Despite a patchy Tri Nation's campaign from both Carter and the All Blacks, the Kiwis still kept winning despite playing badly at times and coming under severe media pressure from critics back home. In rugby speak, all other teams must be still be wary of a team that has the ability to play below par yet still average over 20 points in the last quarter of key matches. 

The last of the big challengers from the Southern Hemisphere will come in Ireland's group, Argentina. Argentina are always a hard team to read, while nearly unbeatable at home, they do not have the same strength and player base that Ireland have. The Argentineans are fiercely physical upfront, have a game breaking full back Juan Martin Hernandez and a livewire scrum half in Puma Captain Augustine Pichot. Leinster's favourite, Doctor Felipe Contemponi, can mix the sublime with the ridiculous in his play, as he proved with his casual match winning drop goal against Ireland in Argentina recently. Contemponi remains one of the most creative playmakers in the world game, and it will be a travesty if Argentina don't play the brilliant off the cuff player in his best position of out half, but thankfully for Ireland he will probably be shunted into the centres by the conservative thinking Argentinean coaches, thus nullifying Contemponi's genius for a more disciplined and patterned approach. In the Northern Hemisphere game, Ireland and France still hold the key to any potential upset of the pecking order, and despite France's last minute Six Nations title, 

Ireland is still the team that the Southern Hemisphere teams fear the most on any given day. The dancing feet of Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll represent the best pair of game breakers in the world game, and if Ireland can just get parity in the tight exchanges then they have a good chance of topping their group and therefore avoiding the All Blacks in the quarter finals, probably meeting Scotland on the easier side of the draw. Ireland have three players in O'Driscoll, O'Connell and D'Arcy that would make any World XV, while others like O'Gara, Hickie and Leamy wouldn't be too far behind them; throw in a couple of underrated workhorses like John Hayes and Simon Easterby and you have a well balanced and exciting Irish team. 

The problem comes in what we witnessed in Argentina recently, namely that Eddie O'Sullivan does not have the luxury of resting his top line players in a tough pool, nor does he have the adequate cover for his frontline stars. Ulster's Paddy Wallace will surely travel as O'Gara's understudy and it now seems certain that Gavin Duffy, a converted fullback, will have to fill in for the world's best centres. These players are good, but if Ireland loses the likes of O'Gara, Hayes, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy and O'Connell in any game then they will struggle to even make it out of their pool, let alone progress to the semi-finals or finals. Last year Leinster without O'Driscoll and Munster without O'Connell looked rudderless at times, and it is almost certain that if Brian O'Driscoll had played against France at Croke Park earlier this year then Ireland would now be the holders of the Grand Slam going into the World Cup.

 Ireland will beat Argentina simply because Ireland's backs are far too potent and Ireland have a far superior back row and lineout, but history dictates there is only a couple of points separating the teams - it all depends on how many scrums the Irish will have to face and perhaps weather and ground conditions. France in Paris really remains the key match for the Irish: lose that French match and it seems certain that a physically and mentally shattered Ireland will be forced to take on a well rested New Zealand in Cardiff where the expat Kiwi support will be at its highest. Defeat France and win the pool, and Ireland will possibly face Scotland, still not a given win, but a lot better route to take than placing as runners up in their pool. France are a mixed bag, they are far more disciplined under coach Bernard Laporte but they now seem to lack the traditional off the cuff flair that once marked great and unpredictable French teams before them. 

The pressure and expectation of winning at home will hit the French like it does the All Blacks and the French public are desperate to win a rugby world cup after being the most consistent team over all previous tournaments – this pressure can have a negative effect. Laporte has opted for experience over exuberance in his 30 man selection, but many of his players were seriously out of form. Players like Serge Betson who were once great, are now struggling as the game is now a young man's domain - perhaps Laporte is calling for one last push from his golden oldies, but when it takes five matches just to get to the final, including do or die games against Ireland and Argentina coupled with huge national and media pressure, then the tank for many of these older players may well be empty come the business end of the competition. England has an easier passage than Ireland (everybody does) and they proved against Wales last weekend in their pre cup friendly that they could still pull something out of the bag. Like the Springboks, England have gone back to selecting a huge physical pack like they did prior to their historic win in 2003. The average English forward even allowing for the front row, is still well over 6ft 4in and 17 stone, something that other teams will fear, especially if weather conditions in France turn sour. 

A lack of team unity and a poor Six Nations campaign last year really means that England's best hope of a surprise remains in adopting the underdog role, but with a gargantuan pack and Jonny Wilkinson on song then England may be quietly thinking of 2003 all over again. Wales looked poor against England especially when conceding over 60 points, but in fairness they were missing a host of top line players. However, the way they were bossed up front by the English pack will be of major concern to the Welsh selectors, and while a loss is not always a bad thing in the preparation stages, a morale slashing hiding will not do anything for the Welsh confidence. Scotland have the luxury of a good draw, and will almost definitely make it into the final eight, but recent wrangling over the state of the Scottish professional game will not have the Scottish team in the best of mental condition for the tournament. Scotland proved against Ireland last year that they can be a tricky team to put away, but realistically they will come unstuck in the quarterfinals which will probably match their pre tournament ambitions.