Real Winners to be Nationalists and David Trimble

The 108-seat Assembly election is the icing on the settlement cake. Following on the huge referendum yes vote, the UUP will trounce the DUP, and the SDLP is exceedingly likely to handsomely defeat SF in the battle for nationalist hearts and minds. For the first time ever, the unionist majority will be small. The unionist bloc will win about 57 seats, with roughly 41 seats for the nationalist bloc and 10 or so for the Alliance Party.

The reason for this sea change in relative political fortunes lies in the number of seats for each constituency. The 18 constituencies are all six seaters. A candidate needs only 14.3% of the vote to be elected. This will have a profound effect on nationalist representation in the new Assembly. Compared to five-seater constituencies, nationalists are likely to win eleven of the extra 18 seats, with four for the unionist bloc, and three for Alliance.

The UUP was the party most traumatised by the Good Friday Agreement. In the event, the 71.12% yes vote will revitalise that party and effectively marginalise the anti-Agreement UUP MP's. It is likely that the ‘soft No's' in the unionist camp will accept the referendum result and vote for Trimble's party.

Magill forecasts the  result outlined in the table below.

The result would be a huge triumph for David Trimble. He would have routed the DUP, and would be in a strong enough position to consider deselecting anti-Agreement MPs such as William Thompson or William Ross.

Nationalists will be represented in some largely unionist constituencies for the first time. The SDLP will pick up single seats east of the Bann as well as in Belfast and the Hume/ Mallon/McGrady heartlands. By contrast, most of SF's support is confined to Belfast and some border constituencies.

Some fascinating contests are in prospect. In the three county Antrim constituencies the UUP or PUP may just shade it over the DUP for each of the last seats. The fracturing of the unionist bloc is likely to see SF winning the most seats in Belfast, with the SDLP second. There will probably be a large nationalist turnout in Upper Bann due to the Drumcree factor, and this could see the election of Breandán MacCionnaith should he stand.

Despite an energetic performance opposing the Agreement, it is unlikely that Robert McCartney can bring in a running mate in North Down. A good showing by the UUP would threaten his Westminster seat in 2002. Alliance will do well in middle-class suburban areas such as North Down. The main interest in Lagan Valley centers on whether Gary McMichael can win a seat for the UDP. On balance, he may just lose. His party's fortunes will contrast with the PUP who will emerge as the dominant working-class unionist party east of the Bann.

Newry and Armagh will see a fierce battle for the last seat. The role of Seamus Mallon in the talks process could swing it for the SDLP, but the odds must favour SF. The high-profile dissident role of William Thompson in West Tyrone could cost him dearly. The UUP leadership will be hoping that a different UUP candidate is elected. However, Mr. Thompson may take a seat at the expense of the DUP. Finally, Mid-Ulster will find SF trying to take three seats. Despite Martin McGuinness's high profile, the SDLP has two strong local candidates in Dennis Haughey and Patsy McGlone, and they should both pull through.

The real winners in this election will be nationalist parties, riding on a wave of self-confidence and demographic change. The SDLP will see off the SF challenge for the leadership of northern nationalism. As a consolation prize, SF might become the third largest party in the new Assembly, ahead of the DUP. However, the greatest triumph will fall to David Trimble. He is likely to be the Northern Ireland Prime Minister for a long time to come. Perhaps 1998 marks the start of a beautiful friendship between David Trimble and Bertie Ahern.

Constituency (MP at present)    UUP    DUP    PUP    UKUP    APNI    SDLP    SF

Antrim, East (UUP)    2    1    1    0    2    0    0
Antrim, North (DUP)    3    2    0    0    0    1    0
Antrim, South (UUP)    3    0    1    0    1    1    0
Bann, Upper (UUP)    3    1    0    0    0    1    1
Belfast, East (DUP)    2    2    1    0    1    0    0
Belfast, North (UUP)    1    1    1    0    1    2    0
Belfast, West (SF)    0    0    0    0    0    2    4
Down, North (UKUP)    2    1    0    1    2    0    0
Down, South (SDLP)    2    0    0    0    0    3    1
Fermanagh/Sth Tyrone (UUP)    2    1    0    0    0    1    2
Foyle (SDLP)    1    1    0    0    0    3    1
Lagan Valley (UUP)    3    1    0    0    1    1    0
Londonderry, East (UUP)    3    1    0    0    1    1    0
Newry & Armagh (SDLP)    2    0    0    0    0    2    2
Strangford (UUP)    3    1    0    0    2    0    0
Tyrone, West (UUP)    1    1    0    0    0    2    2
Ulster, Mid (SF)    1    1    0    0    0    2    2

Total    35    16    5    1    10    24    17