A process of degradation
India and China will be economically developed enough in 15 years so that an increased proportion of their population will likely seek car ownership. Automobile makers, anticipating this development, are designing the first generations of cars geared to cater for the demand.
At present, car ownership amounts to an estimated 800 million vehicles, and anticipating increased car ownership, in about 15 years that may have reached two billion. It is reported that currently there are problems disposing of an estimated three billion used tires; this and other car waste will rise exponentially as carmakers expand production. Figures are not readily to hand about the average per unit fuel consumption of the present world car fleet, but it is unlikely to better a mixed driving average consumption of over 40 miles per gallon. It is unlikely that the first generations of cars designed for expanding Indian and Chinese markets will make the overall average of fuel consumption any better. Given the increase, to remain at the level of current world car-fleet fuel consumption would require an average of about 100 miles per gallon per unit. The currently more readily available “light” fossil-oil variety is the fuel most likely to be used throughout this period. When that becomes less available, fossil-oil deposits in shale and other less convenient locations will need to be accessed.
More cars will increase CO2 pollution. A “top of the range” luxury car in 2007 produces per kilometre driven, 335 grams of carbon dioxide, a kilo every three kilometres – a similar output as for mid- or heavy-weight SUVs that are so much in demand. Entry-level cars being designed for Indian and Chinese markets are unlikely to feature the presumably more sophisticated anti-pollution measures in larger contemporary “Western” cars. Engine size will likely be the determinant of the amount of pollution emitted by each of these new cars. In any event, the overall emitted amount will increase. It is reasonable to assume that increased car ownership will add more CO2, further increasing warming of the earth's atmosphere. It is nearly certain that solar activity has not added to the warming of the earth's atmosphere, at least since 1985, and most likely not since pre-1940s.
Car ownership thus presents us all with a difficulty. We can enjoy the sense of independence provided by travelling surrounded by about a ton of metal, propelled by fossil fuel, by itself, or mixed with crop fuel, which is displacing food crops. But as car use increases so will the associated pollution and the deterioration of our environment. We need to pay heed, car-makers, road-builders, quarry-owners, fossil-fuel miners and producers, and all the rest of us, that we are part of a process of degradation of our planet, which is impossible to sustain.
We need to do a worldwide audit of car ownership and our use of cars. Our planet is under increased environmental stress due to car ownership, plus many other considerations, causing pollution. There is considerably less than a human generation in which to change this situation in order to mitigate the likely tragic outcome in a near future. The multiples of pollution are just too high; we are rapidly wearing out our only home. We should begin change by teaching children in primary school about consumption and conservation, given that they will inherit and bear the impact of our consumption and must learn to cope in order to survive, eg teaching growing local food in allotments, and how to make better energy consumption choices than we have managed, like using sustainable travel.