With France and the Netherlands rejecting the European Constitution an activist, an academic and

Scrap this right-wing treaty, says Sinn Féin's Eoin O'Broin

The voters of France and Holland have dealt a devastating blow to the EU Constitution. While few commentators thought that all 25 member states would ratify the Treaty, none anticipated that two of the Union's founding members would say no, and with such clarity and certainty.

What is equally significant is the nature of the No campaigns and the motivation of their supporters.

In France, the No campaign was led by the left. A significant section of the Socialist Party, led by former premier Laurent Fabius, joined forces with the French Communist Party, smaller parties such as LCR (Revolutionary Communist League), trade unions and global justice organisation Attac. They opposed the right-wing economic model promoted by the constitution; its failure to tackle the EU's democratic deficit; and the hankering after superpower status embodied in the common foreign, security and defence policies.

The French result was astonishing, not only because of the 55 per cent no vote, but the turnout, at 70 per cent, was unprecedented by any standard. In Holland, the Socialist Party also led the No campaign and focused on a similar platform of issues. There, the no camp secured 62 per cent of the votes in a 61 per cent turnout.

Contrary to much media analysis, the majority of people who voted No in both countries did so out of discontent with the way in which their domestic social, economic and political agenda is being constrained by a cosy consensus at national and European level. This consensus, encapsulated in the constitution, sees neo-liberal market economics and centralisation of power in Brussels as the only solutions to the rise of corporate-led globalisation.

The voters of France and Holland have not only called for a rethink on the constitution, but more importantly on the political and economic principles that inform its content. The front page of the French newspaper Humanité said it all: "55 per cent of people say No to a neo-liberal Europe".

And so, the question today on everyone's lips: where to now? Commentators have focused on three possible scenarios, which may unfold in the coming weeks.

The first is the formal scrapping of the constitution, and the gradual incorporation of its main elements through the present decision-making process. A constitution-by-stealth may overcome the problem of the French and Dutch votes, but at the cost of further undermining public confidence in the EU as a whole.

The second option would be to press ahead with the process of ratification in the hope that all other member states support the Treaty. EU leaders may then return to the French and Dutch voters a second time, hoping that the pressure of isolation would force them to relent.

Such a course of action risks a domino effect, as those other countries planning referendums may also reject the constitution. Polls in Luxemberg give the No camp a clear lead. Denmark and Ireland have rejected EU treaties before and the Czech Republic may do likewise.

The third option would be some form of renegotiation of the Treaty in the hope that limited change would allow the constitution to be put again to French and Dutch voters.

However while any renegotiation would be aimed at securing French and Dutch support, other member states would see this as an opportunity to raise additional issues, which could lead to the unravelling of the entire treaty. This would be a high risk strategy with no guarantee of success.

The official line coming from the Council of Ministers and the Commission centres on the need for a "period of reflection" and insists that ratification must proceed. However some EU leaders appear to be looking for a way out.

While a British rejection was always a possibility, Tony Blair can hardly be enthusiastic about the prospect of his final period as prime minister being dominated by an EU debate which he now has no hope of winning. Jack Straw is expected to announce the suspension of the British referendum early next week, while some are suggesting that the British European presidency would prefer to focus on reviving the Lisbon Agenda rather than the Constitution.

Despite attempts by right-wing politicians in many countries to link the impact of the French and Dutch votes on future enlargement of the EU, the acceptance or rejection of the constitution will have no impact on future enlargements, which in the case of Turkey is almost a decade away at the earliest.

Whatever the outcome of the 16 June Council of Europe summit it is clear that the EU is at a crossroads. The Laeken Declaration mandated the Convention on the Future of Europe to draft a treaty which would bring the citizens of the 25 member states "closer to the European design and the European institutions".

Clearly in the minds of French and Dutch voters, the constitution failed to achieve this central task. It may be time for the European design and institutions to be brought closer to the people. A good place to start would be the scrapping of this undemocratic, right-wing Constitution and the opening of a real debate about the future of Europe.

Eoin O'Broin is Sinn Féin's Director of European Affairs