Election 82: We predict a coalition victory

Predicting the result of Election '82 is very much more hazardous than usual. Normally one canrdetect the drift of public opinion from the trend of the opinion polls over a year or so prior to the election and the preevailing level of price increases over this time span is also a useful guide - Govvernments lose when inflation has run high for a year to 18 months previously.

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Prediction:
FF 78
FG 69
Lab 15
Others 3
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On this occasion no such guides are available. The opinion polls have been too few to be reliable guides (each poll has a margin of error of plus 01; minus 3% which makes prediction from less than at least six polls almost entirely pointless). The Coalition Government has had too short a record for the elecctorate to form a settled opinion and the memory of the last Fianna Fail Government is still vivid.

But some assumptions have to be made and the following are what underlines the accompanying predicctions: (a) that there is no major natioonal swing either to or from the Govvernment, (b) that there is a slight middle class swing towards the Government, (c) that there is a slight big farmer swing towards the Government, (d) that the west will remain solidly Fianna Fail because of the Knock airrport and Tuam factory issues, (e) that there will be a marginal improvement in the Fianna Fail position in the Cork region and (0 that there is a marginal working class swing towards Fianna Fail.

These assumptions are based partly on the available polls and partly on "soundings" with the various political parties and a number of candidates. They are therefore very tentative.

If correct, there will be no change in Connaught, although the Mayo connstituencies are both very marginal and East Mayo in particular could swing to Fine Gael in spite of the Knock airport issue. No change also in Donegal, allthough Paddy Kelly of Blaney's party could dislodge Paddy "The Cope" Gallagher in South West. Fianna Fail to take a seat in Cavan-Monaghan from H-Block, with Fine Gael to take a seat from H-Block in Louth - all commentators, including this one, entirely underestimated the H-Block vote in the June election and the same could occur again now.

Fianna Fail to take two extra seats in Leinster, Meath and Wexford but to lose a seat in Laois-Offaly and Wickklow and fail to take a third in CarlowwKilkenny and Kildare. The collapse

of Labour in Meath and Wexford ennsures Fianna Fail the third seat in both of these constituencies but, it is predicted, this advantage will be wiped out by losses in Laois-Offaly, where a slight farmer swing will give the third seat to Fine Gael, and Wickklow, where the middle class Bray and Greystones vote should ensure the election of Gemma Hussey for Fine Gael. Fianna Fail will fail to take a third seat in both Carlow-Kilkenny and Kildare.

No change in Waterford, Limerick or Tipperary, in spite of Michael O'Kennedy's efforts in North Tippperary. No change in the Cork city constituencies but Fianna Fail likely to gain one extra seat in one of the Cork rural constituencies, most likely, Cork North West.

Fine Gael could be in big trouble

in Kerry where the party remains weak in Kerry North and is under threat from a revitalised Fianna Fail organisaation in Kerry South. Fine Gael finally to achieve a breakthrough in Clare with Madeline Taylor and Donal Carey taking two seats.

This leaves the Dublin region. We predict that Fianna Fail will be held to one seatin Dublin North because of the middle class factor and for similar reasons will fail to make any gains in Dublin South or Dublin West. Fine Gael will take Sean Loftus's seat in Dublin North East, while Fianna Fail is in with a chance of taking three seats out of four in Charlie Haughey's constituency of Dublin North Central.

Garret FitzGerald could even the score in Dublin South East where he could manage to bring in a Fine Gael candidate and Ruairi Quinn of Labour.
Frank Cluskey should return in Dublin South Central at the expense of Fianna Fail, while the latter is under siege in Dublin West, where again the middle class factor could be significant.

THE BATTLEGROUND

Therefore the battleground for Election '82 will be: the rural Cork constituencies, along with the adjacent constituency of Kerry South. Isolated Clare. The large farming connstituencies of Wexford, Carlowkenny , Laois-Offaly, Kildare and Meath, the two former H-Block seats in Cavan-Monaghan and Louth. While in Dublin there is Dublin North along with the three south city constituenncies, Du1;JIin South East, Dublin South Central and Dublin South West.

An analysis of the Fianna Fail benchmark table suggests that the party will have a great deal of difficullty in reaching the magical 82 seats, which (counting on Neil Blaney's vote) is the minimum number they need to form a Government. _

Vincent Browne

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TABLES:
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These tables give the first preference % vote for ..•• eacn party in the '81 election. They also give the Last Effective Count % vote, which indicates the real strengtb of each party in each constituency after seeeoage of votes and transfers from other candidates have been taken into account. We give a benchmark table for FF which states how the party is most likely to g-ain the minimum number of seats (82) it needs to form a Government. We also give the optimum nummber of seats that party is likely to win and the minimal position for it. The 'swing' table shows the percentage points FF needs to gain or lose the marginal seat in each constituency.

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    First Preferences 1981            
Constituency        FF        FG        Labour        Others
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)    46.9 (2)    36.9 (2)    12.9 (1)    3.3 (-)
Cavan-Monaghan (5)    43.9 (2)    41.0 (2)    -        15.1 (1)
Clare (4)        58.7(3)        30.7 (1)    5.5 (-)        5.2 (-)
Cork East (4)        38.1 (1)    45.3 (2)    1.7 (-)        14.9 (1)
Cork North-Central (5)    37.9(2)        34.0 (2)    15.8 (1)    12.3(-)
Cork North West (3)    46.0 (1)    42.1 (2)    11.9 (-)    -
Cork South-Central (5)    43.1 (2)    42.3 (2)    13.9 (1)    0.7 (-)
Cork South-West (3)    41.9 (1)    45.3 (2)    9.6 (-)        3.2 (-)
Donegal Nth-East (3)    38.4(1)        35.6 (1)    1.5 (-)        24.5 (1)
Donegal Sth-West (3)    45.5 (2)    38.4 (1)            16.2 (-)
Dublin Central (5)    43.0(2)        28.8 (2)    17.5 (I)    10.7 (-)
Dublin North (3)    46.4 (1)    37.7(2)        16.0 (-)    -
Dublin Nth-Central (4)    50.9 (2)    25.5 (1)    4.5 (-)        19.1(1)
Dublin Nth-East (4)    43.5 (2)    28.2(1)        8.8 (-)        19.6 (1)
Dublin Nth-West (4)    44.7(2)        32.8 (2)    12.4 (-)    10.1 (-)
Dublin South (5)    42.3 (2)    46.0 (3)    9.8 (-)        1.9(-)
Dublin Sth-Central (5)    34.4(2)        29.2 (2)    12.0 (-)    24.4 (1)
Dublin Sth-East (4)    38.5 (2)    43.0 (2)    12.2(-)        6.3 (-)
Dublin Sth-West (4)    39.9 (2)    38.2 (1)    17.7(1)        4.2 (-)
DubEn West (5)        38.7 (2)    42.1 (3)    7.9 (-)        11.3(-)
Dun Laoghaire (5)    37.4 (2)    43.4 (2)    16.0(1)        3.1 (-)
Galway East (3)        52.9 (2)    47.1 (1)        
Galway West (5)        55.1 (3)    30.0 (1)    12.2(1)        2.7 (-)
Kerry North (3)        51.0 (2)    21.2 (-)    16.6 (1)    11.3(-)
Kerry South (3)        47.2 (I)    23.5 (1)    24.5 (1)    4.8 (-)
Kildare (5)        48.6 (2)    31.5 (2)    18.3 (1)    1.5(-)
Laois-Offaly (5)    49.9 (3)    45.2 (2)    4.3 (-)        0.7 (-)
Limerick East (5)    42.3 (2)    33.8 (2)    11.8 (-)    12.1 (1)
Limerick West (3)    64.3 (2)    35.7 (1)    -        -
Longford-W'meath (4    46.8 (2)    36.1 (2)    7.1 (-)        10.1 (-)
Louth (4)        41.2 (2)    29.9(1)        6.2 (-)        22.6 (1)
Mayo East (3)        53.9 (2)    46.1 (1)    -        -
Mayo West (3)        54.1 (2)    45.9 (1)    -        -
Meath (5)        44.2 (2)    33.9 (2)    17.1(1)        4.9 (-)
Roscommon (3)        48.3 (2)    39.4 (1)    -        12.3(-)
Sligo- Lei trim (4)    49.9 (2)    35.6 (2)    0.8 (-)        13.8 (-)
Tipperary Nth (3)    45.7 (1)    29.4(1)        23.2 (1)    1.8(-)
Tipperary South (4)    41.4 (2)    28.1 (1)    21.5 (1)    8.9 (-)
Waterford (4)        38.8 (2)    41.9 (2)    3.7 (-)        15.5 (-)
Wexford (5)        48.2 (2)    36.2 (2)    13.6 (1)    2.0 (-)
Wicklow (4)        41.5 (2)    35.0 (1)    14.4 (1)    9.1 (-)

Last Effective Count 1981            

Constituency        FF        FG        Labour        Others
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)    47.8 (2)    36.4 (2)    15.7 (1)    -
Cavan-Monaghan (5)    44.7 (2)    39.1 (2)    -        16.2 (1)
Clare (4)        61.1 (3)    38.9 (1)    -        -
Cork East (4)        38.3 (1)    41.4 (2)    -        20.3 (1)
Cork North-Central (5)    41.3 (2)    34.0 (2)    16.9 (1)    7.8 (-)
Cork North West (3)    48.3(1)    51.7(2)    -    -
Cork South-Central (5)    42.9 (2)    41.3 (2)    15.8 (1)    -
Cork South-West (3)    48.2 (1)    51.8 (2)    -        -
Donegal Nth-East (3)    40.1 (1)    34.4 (1)    -        25.5 (1)
Donegal Sth-West (3)    51.1 (2)    27.0 (1)    -        21.9 (-)
Dublin Central (5)    48.5 (2)    33.9 (2)    17.60)        -
Dublin North (3)    49.7 (1)    50.3 (2)    -        -
Dublin Nth-Central (4)    54.7 (2)    21.0 (1)    -        24.3 (1)
Dublin Nth-East (4)    47.1 (2)    37.5 (1)    -        15.4 (1)
Dublin Nth-West (4)    45.1 (2)    38.5 (2)    -        16.4 (-)
Dublin South (5)    45.3 (2)    54.7 (3)    -    
Dublin Sth-Central (5)    35.5 (2)    33.5 (2)    14.0 (-)    17.0 (1)
Dublin Sth-East (4)    41.7 (2)    40.3 (2)    18.0 (-)    -
Dublin Sth-West (4)    42.2 (2)    36.7(1)        21.0 (1)    
DubEn West (5)        46.3 (2)    57.3 (3)    -        -
Dun Laoghaire (5)    37.9 (2)    45.2 (2)    16.9 (1)    -
Galway East (3)        53.9 (2)    46.1 (1)    -        -
Galway West (5)        58.0 (3)    24.8 (1)    17.2(1)        -
Kerry North (3)        54.7 (2)    22.8 (-)    22.5 (1)    -
Kerry South (3)        48.6 (1)    25.0 (1)    26.3 (1)    -
Kildare (5)        48.9 (2)    34.0 (2)    17.1(0    
Laois-Offaly (5)    51.5 (3)    48.5 (2)            -
Limerick East (5)    46.7 (2)    35.9 (2)    -        17.3 (I)
Limerick West (3)    63.4 (2)    36.6(1)    -    -
Longford-W'meath (4    56.4 (2)    43.6(2)    -    -
Louth (4)        45.5 (2)    30.1 (1)    -        24.4 (1)
Mayo East (3)        51.6 (2)    48.4(1)        
Mayo West (3)        54.8 (2)    45:2 (1)    -    
Meath (5)        49.4 (2)    33.5 (2)    17.1(1)        -
Roscommon (3)        51.1 (2)    42.3 (1)    -        6.6 (-)
Sligo- Lei trim (4)    59.1 (2)    40.9{2)    -        
Tipperary Nth (3)    44.7 (1)    29.5 (1)    25.7 (1)    
Tipperary South (4)    55.4 (2)    21.4 (1)    23.1 (1)    -
Waterford (4)        41.4(2)        43.8 (2)    -        14.8 (2)
Wexford (5)        49.7 (2)    33.8 (2)    16.6 (1)    -
Wicklow (4)        40.7 (2)    39.9 (1)    19.4 (1)    

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82 Prospects                    
Constituency        FF    FG    Labour     Swing Required    
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)    2    3    2    2.20%    
Cavan-Monaghan (5)    3    3    2    5.30%    
Clare (4)        3    3    2    -1.1%    
Cork East (4)    I    2    1    1    1.70%    
Cork North-Central (5)    2    2    2    + 8.7%    
Cork North West (3)    2    2    1    1.70%    
Cork South-Central (5)    2    2    2    + 7.1%    
Cork South-West (3)    1    2    1    + 1.8%    
Donegal Nth-East (3)    1    1    1    + 9.9%    
Donegal Sth-West (3)    2    2    2    -1.10%    
Dublin Central (5)    2    2    2    1.50%    
Dublin North (3)    1    2    1    0.30%    
Dublin Nth-Central (4)    2    3    2    5.30%    
Dublin Nth-East (4)    2    2    2    -7.10%    
Dublin Nth-West (4)    2    2    2    -5.10%    
Dublin South (5)    2    2    2    4.70%    
Dublin Sth-Central (5)    1    2    1    --                    
Dublin Sth-East (4)    2    2    1    -1.7%    
Dublin Sth-West (4)    2    2    1    -2.2%    
Dublin West (5)        2    2    2    + 3.7%    
Dun Laoghaire (5)    2    2    2    -4.70%    
Galway East (3)        2    2    1    -3.9%    
Galway West (5)        3    3    3    -8.0%    
Kerry North (3)        2    2    2    -4.7%    
Kerry South (3)        1    2    I    +1.4%    
Kildare (5)        2    3    2    +1.1%    
Laois-Offaly (5)    3    3    2    -1.5%    
Limerick East (5)    2    2    2    +3.3%    
Limerick West (3)    2    2    2    -13.40%    
Longford-W'rneath (l    2    2    2    + 3.6%    
Louth (4)        3    3    2    14.50%    
Mayo East (3)        2    2    I    -1.6%    
Mayo West (3)        2    2    1    -4.8%    
Meath (5)        3    3    2    +0.6%    
Roscommon (3)        2    2    2    -1.1%    
Sligo-Lei trim (4)    2    2    2    +0.9%    
Tipperary Nth (3)    1    2    1    +5.3%    
Tipperary South (4)    2    2    2    +4.6%    
Waterford (4)        2    2    2    -1.4%    
Wexford (5)        3    3    2    +0.3%    
Wicklow (4)        2    2    1    -0.7%    

1982 Election Prediction
                    
Constituency        FF    FG    Lab    Others    Comment
Carlow-Kilkenny (5)    2    2    1    -    Labour seat in jeopardy but there appears to be a slight farmers' swing from FF
Cavan-Monaghan (5)    3    2    -    -    Prisoner candidate could again do well, but likelihood is
Clare (4)    2    2    -    -        Very marginal. FG could at last break FF stronghold.
Cork East (4)    1    2    -    1        FF now much better placed but Joe Sherlock should just hold on
Cork North-Central (5)    2    2    1    -    No Change
Cork North West (3)    2    1    -    -    FF must gain at least one seat in Cork region and it could be here, although FG very well organised.
Cork South-Central (5)    2    2    1    -    No Change
Cork South-West (3)    1    2    -    -    Crowley and Joe Walsh to fight it out for FF seat, hoping to take two.
Donegal Nth-East (3)    1    1    -    1    No Change
Donegal Sth-West (3)    2    1    -    -    Paddy Kelly of Blaney's party could spring a surprise at the expense of FF.
Dublin Central (5)    2    2    1    -    Michael O'Leary could be in trouble here.
Dublin North (3)    1    2    -    -    FF bidding to win second most marginal seat but middle-class vote should secure Nora Owen.        
Dublin Nth-Central (4)    2    2    -    -    Conceivable that FF could take three seats; Bernadette McAliskey also well-poised.
Dublin Nth-East (4)    2    2    -    -    Maurice Manning of FG to take seat from Sean Loftus
Dublin Nth-West (4)    2    2    -    -    No Change
Dublin South (5)    2    3    -    -    No change and no hope for SHe deValera.
Dublin Sth-Central (5)    1    2    1    -    Frank Cluskey to return at FF's expense.
Dublin Sth-East (4)    1    2    1    -    Sean Moore in trouble.
Dublin Sth-West (4)    2    1    1    -     FGcould take second seat.
Dublin West (5)    2    3    -    -        Brian Lenihan could be surprised by Liam Lawlor.
Dun Laoghaire (5)    2    2    1    -    No change.
Galway East (3)    2    1    -    -        Tuam factory issue ensures no change.
Galway West (5)    3    1    1    -        No change but Mark Killilea could be in trouble from  party colleague and Michael D. Higgins could lose to FG
Kerry North (3)    2        1    -        FG threatens Dick Spring's seat
Kerry South (3)    2        1    -        FF now better placed to regain second seat
Kildare (5)    2    2    1    -        Alan Dukes to hold on for FG
Laois-Offaly (5)    2    3    -    -    Farmers' swing should give FG gain
Limerick East (5)    2    2    -    1    No change - Jim Kemmy to hold on.
Limerick West (3)    2    1    -    -    No change,
Longford-W'rneath (l    2    2    -    -    No change,
Louth (4)    2    2    -    -        FF could take 3 seats. Fra Browne of Sinn Fein could again spring a surprise
Mayo East (3)    2    1    -    -        Could be major surprise here in spite of (because of ?) Knock airport
Mayo West (3)    2    1    -    -        No change.
Meath (5)    3    2    -    -        FF to take Labour seat.
Roscommon (3)    2    1    -    -        No Change
Sligo-Lei trim (4)    2    2    -    -    No change but FG's second seat under threat
Tipperary Nth (3)    1    1    1    -    Michael O'Kennedy could be a surprise defeat
Tipperary South (4)    2    1    1    -    No change.
Waterford (4)    2    2    -    -        No change but SFWP threatens FF's second seat
Wexford (5)    3    2    -    -        FF to take Labour seat
Wicklow (4)    1    2    1    -        Gemma Hussey to take FF seat

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