Dublin dramatically ups ante as deadline looms
Lack of photographic evidence of decommissioning remains the major obstacle to the restoration of the North's political institutions, writes Suzanne Breen
In Dublin, Bertie Ahern talked up the chance of a historic deal to restore the North's political institutions. In the Belfast Telegraph a writer wondered if Stormont might become a golf course now it has lain vacant so long.
It's a case of brash Southern optimism versus canny Northern realism. November 25th is the latest deadline in a long list of 'ultimate' deadlines the two governments have imposed on the peace process over the years.
In the past week, Dublin has dramatically upped the ante. The Government warns the DUP not to throw away an unprecedented opportunity for a lasting settlement and IRA decommissioning by Christmas.
The Taoiseach says people would be "amused" if they knew what was holding up agreement. Government sources refer to divisions in the DUP and challenge the party to show it's serious about compromise.
If Bertie Ahern wants to coax the DUP into taking the plunge, he's going about it all wrong. The DUP isn't a party to bully or bounce into an agreement. Such attempts will only backfire.
Both nationalist and unionist talks' insiders say they are 80 per cent of the way towards a deal. However, senior DUP figures accuse the Government of "massive and unhelpful spinning" and blame it, and not Sinn Féin, for lessening the chances of progress.
"The Taoiseach's recent comments make me more pessimistic about the likelihood of closing the remaining gaps between ourselves and Sinn Féin," says one. "I thought people in Dublin knew the party and politicians they were dealing with. The tactics that worked with David Trimble and the Ulster Unionists don't work with Ian Paisley and the DUP.
"Bertie Ahern basically said 'Catch yourselves on lads. There's a great deal on the table. If you don't take it, you're against peace'. Well, it's not yet all there on the table. There is a serious amount of work still to be done in getting the right deal, and the Taoiseach singling out our party for attack is silly.
"It has absolutely no effect in terms of producing movement. Sometimes you wonder what they're eating and drinking in Dublin. Does Bertie think DUP voters will turn on us for blocking the process because of what he says? A Taoiseach's words have the opposite effect.
"We will not go for some quickly cobbled together deal that can't command support in our community. Trimble did that and look where it got him." Government sources accuse the DUP of not providing leadership and "making a tortoise seem speedy" in terms of political movement.
The DUP won't negotiate directly with Sinn Féin. But since Leeds Castle in September both parties have been involved in talks with the governments. This dialogue is likely to be intensified over the coming 10 days as the deadline looms.
The biggest obstacle remains the transparency of IRA decommissioning. The DUP is demanding a visual aspect; Sinn Féin is firmly refusing. Sinn Féin says by offering complete decommissioning and pledging all military activity will cease, the IRA is going further than anyone would ever have believed.
It argues that photographic evidence of disarmament would be interpreted as an IRA surrender. It would be used as propaganda by rival anti-Agreement republicans intent on destabilising the peace process.
The DUP insists it's not out to humiliate the Provos but unionist grassroots must have faith in events. The secrecy of previous decommissioning acts led many to believe nothing had been decommissioned, and the governments, the IRA, and General de Chastelain – who chairs the decommissioning body – had collaborated in a big con.
The DUP says it has only the governments' word on likely IRA decommissioning by Christmas; it still hasn't seen a text from the Provisionals. Sinn Féin sources say they won't circulate statements in the absence of agreement on other matters.
Last week, the Independent Monitoring Commission report said that while the Provisional IRA wasn't involved in attacks on the British Army or police, it remained "highly active in paramilitary style shootings short of murder".
It had undertaken training earlier this year, "maintained a capability on intelligence and weaponry", and derived a substantial income from smuggling and other crime. It continued to recruit and gather intelligence.
For the year until September 2004, republicans were responsible for 30 shootings and 44 assaults. The Provisional IRA remained "capable of reverting to more widespread violence, were the decision taken that it should do so".
While senior DUP figures believe it's what the Provos do after a deal, not before one, that's important, they say continuing IRA activity undermines confidence among unionist grassroots.
"There's a feeling in our community that the IRA turns the tap of violence and criminality on and off when it wants to. It does the odd shooting here, the odd heist there, when it's meant to be working to a new agreement," says a DUP figure.
Sinn Féin sources point out that loyalist paramilitaries remain active and are responsible for far more violence. There has been progress between the DUP and Sinn Féin in terms of the reform of the Stormont political structures.
Insiders say Sinn Féin has agreed to changes to allow the future First Minister (Ian Paisley) and the Deputy First Minister (Martin McGuinness) to be elected separately in order to spare the DUP's blushes with a single election.
The parties are still at odds over DUP demands to make ministers more accountable to the Assembly. Sinn Féin remains unconvinced that the DUP is genuinely concerned about democracy and claims that, as the largest Assembly party, it just wants to tie the hands of nationalist ministers by reintroducing majority rule through the backdoor.
Both parties are agreed on the transfer of policing and justice powers from Westminster to Stormont. In return, Sinn Féin will support the police force. However, Sinn Féin wants policing and justice devolved to the Assembly within a year or two, while the DUP refuses to commit to a time frame, saying it depends on "community confidence". Even if the situation developed smoothly, the DUP is unlikely to agree to devolution of these powers in under two years.
Speculation that the DUP is split over a deal is untrue. While there are occasional differences between fundamentalist and pragmatic elements over tactics, the party remains unbelievably united. Reports that Nigel Dodds favoured a more hardline approach and clashed with Peter Robinson are fiction. Sinn Féin remain similarly united, although the party plays up reports of tensions in IRA ranks to the governments in order to strengthen its hand.
The 25 November deadline has been set because that marks the anniversary of last year's Assembly elections. Also, in the event of a deal, Sinn Féin wants to be back in government before the likely May Westminster elections.
The DUP is demanding a period to assess the promised ending of IRA activity before the Assembly and Executive are restored. As the clock wouldn't start ticking until the date of a deal, Sinn Féin needs an agreement imminently.
A settlement in the first half of next year, when the parties are in election mode, is unlikely. In the second half of 2005, the UK will hold both the EU and G8 presidencies which could limit Tony Blair's involvement in Northern Ireland negotiations.
That's why the Taoiseach has claimed that unless progress is made now, the chance of a deal could be lost until 2006. In the absence of agreement within the next 10 days, the governments will likely publish their suggestions on the way forward by the end of the month.
There is speculation these could be take-it-or-leave-it proposals with the governments pressing ahead with the phased restoration of the Assembly and Executive, providing the IRA decommissioned.
But any proposals will fail if the DUP doesn't sign up to them. Twenty DUP and a handful of anti-Agreement Ulster Unionist members created turmoil in the last Assembly. Now with 33 out of 108 Assembly seats, the DUP would be even more powerful.
Previous initiatives in Northern Ireland failed because of Sinn Féin and Provisional IRA opposition. Unpalatable as it may be to nationalists, no agreement can work without the DUP.