A confident Ireland can win the Grand Slam

With France weakened by retirements and England inconsistent, Ireland have every chance to redress their World Cup failures. By Brent Pope

A mere five months after their humiliating exit from the World Cup, Eddie O'Sullivan and Ireland have a real opportunity to win their first ever Six Nations and restore passion and confidence in Irish rugby. Some may think this ludicrous given the dire performances in France last September. But Ireland didn't become a bad team overnight – the rudiments of the team that nearly won last year's Six Nations remain intact. Other Six Nations teams have appointed new coaches and many new players – notably France and England, who Ireland meet in away games.
By contrast, Ireland's team is largely unchanged from last year and is a far more experienced team than the other sides. When you compare man-for-man the ability of Ireland's first fifteen with that of France, England or any team, more Irish players would be retained than replaced. That logic doesn't take into account the confidence or camraderie of a team, but in terms of ability, Ireland are the best equipped to win the championship.
 

Add in the fact that Ireland are more motivated this year than ever, that they want to prove the World Cup was an ‘anomaly' (as Eddie O'Sullivan phrased it); the potential is there for a championship win, possibly a Grand Slam.
But seeking out the big results is not necessarily the best course of action for Eddie O'Sullivan this year. I believe that he has four objectives for this Six Nations:

• Get some good results early on to restore in Irish rugby the confidence and enthusiasm that was lost at the World Cup;
• Rotate more players in the squads;
• Develop impact substitutes;
• Test young new players who could be developed for key positions (out-half, prop forward, centres).

The latter, somewhat risky objectives are not necessarily conducive to winning a Grand Slam – testing inexperienced players leaves Ireland exposed and prone to mistakes, as France proved in the World Cup when they exploited Andrew Trimble on the wing.

To ensure that Ireland get off to a powerful start against Italy in Croke Park, Eddie O'Sullivan is likely to select a starting team of familiar faces, choosing new players only where he has to: Bernard Jackman for Jerry Flannery (suspended); Mick O'Driscoll for Paul O'Connell (injured); Geordan Murphy and Andrew Trimble for Shane Horgan (injured) and Denis Hickie (retired). Jamie Heaslip may start in the back row purely because of his tremendous form for Leinster.

The game against France in Paris one week later is a big test, and a big opportunity. France have made wholesale changes: Ibanez, Betsen and Pelous are retired; Jauzion is injured; Chabal, Nyanga, Hardinoquay are overlooked in favour of younger players. France have so many new combinations to get right; Ireland have the combinations in place. Add a new, albeit respected coach in Marc Lievremont, and the fact that the French, by their very nature, will not have settled in to their stride by then – Ireland have every chance of winning. That would give Eddie O'Sullivan the latitude to experiment with the squad.

Earn such an opportunity and Eddie O'Sullivan must take it. He must rotate players on the bench and try out new players in key positions. The team should be selected on present form, not reputation; on who is playing good club rugby, not past loyalties. People want to see how the fresh talent develop at international level, even if this comes at the sacrifice of results.

O'Sullivan's conservatism at the World Cup meant it was harder to get out of the team than into it. The frustration for some players showed when they returned; these were the Irish players who had a point to prove. They played magnificent rugby in the Magners League and European Cup: Malcom O'Kelly, Alan Quinlan, Geordan Murphy – they all played superbly this season. As did Jamie Heaslip and Keith Gleeson, players who didn't make the World Cup squad at all. If O'Sullivan plays the same World Cup team and things go wrong again, then the Irish media and public will demand an explanation, if not a resignation.

Eddie O'Sullivan must use the bench more, and use it cleverly. Players must be introduced with enough time to make an impact on the game. At international level it takes 10 minutes for a player to get his second wind, to get up to the speed of the game, particularly in the forwards. The bench should be laden with impact subs, not just utility players who fill several positions as has been O'Sullivan's want. Like France used Chabal, Ireland need players who can come on, lift the team and make a difference. Exciting players who are playing well; Luke Fitzgerald, Jamie Heaslip, Alan Quinlan and Malcom O'Kelly should be strategically introduced and given the requisite time to impress.

Ireland will be fragile in key positions as they near the 2011 World Cup unless Eddie O'Sullivan develops strong players. Ireland needs strong centres, two good props and a back up out-half for Ronan O'Gara. O'Sullivan must begin that process now – players who are worth developing for key positions should start in some of this year's games. There is a case for starting Luke Fitzgerald or Tommy Bowe in the absence of Denis Hickie – it depends on who Eddie O'Sullivan thinks is the better form player.

Leinster's Jonathan Sexton can be developed as an impact player and a natural successor to Ronan O'Gara. He can run the game at out-half, he is calm under pressure and he's an excellent goal kicker from anywhere in his own half. Eddie O'Sullivan will initially rely on Paddy Wallace who can cover full-back and out-half, but if he is to gamble in the backs, it may well be on Sexton. Ireland have players who can cover several back line positions – D'Arcy can play at centre or full back, Horgan can play the wing or centre as can Trimble. Sexton could, and should, replace Wallace on the bench later on in the competition.

Andrew Trimble's natural position is in the centre and this is where he should be developed. It's not easy for a player to focus on one position when he fluctuates from wing to centre. Trimble has plenty of speed, good ball skills, he breaks defences – all the attributes of an outside centre – a poition that Ireland is light on for the next World Cup considering Brian O'Driscoll will be 32 by then. Trimble and possibly Luke Fitzgerald can be developed as natural successors to O'Driscoll; any player that can be developed into his rightful position should be.

Eddie O'Sullivan's squad selection this year raises some concerns. Players who were on form for the World Cup are suddently left out. Brian Kearney was included for the World Cup; he hasn't done anything wrong for Munster, yet he's not included. There is no natural Number 7. Perhaps Johnny O'Connor who has had a good season for Connaught, but Keith Gleeson has the right to feel aggrieved – he is a player whose experience Ireland could have done with this year.

There will be changes within the squad, but the extent of these has yet to be seen. If Ireland can regain confidence early on, they are man-for-man as good as any other team in the Six Nations.