Results analysis - MINISCULE SWING

The electoral balance is still on a knife-edge. A mere 2% swing in favour of Fianna Fail would give them an exxtra 9 seats, while a similar swing against them would lose them 7 seats. By Gordon Colleary

The extent of the swing in this election, as compared with the 1981 election was miniscule. Once the H-Block factor is taken out of the reckoning (Cavan-Monaghan, Cork North Central, Louth), along with the eclipse of Sean Loftus in Dublin North East and the absence of John O'Connell in Dublin South Central, and of Noel Browne in Dublin North Central, the swing towards and against Fianna Fail was very even with only the most marginal net swing in favour of the party.

In the remaining 35 constituencies, Fianna Fail had a swing in its favour in 20 constituencies and a swing against in 15. It had a swing of more than 2% in only 9 consti tuenncies other than the above and a swing of less than 2% in 11 others. There was a swing away from Fianna Fail of less than 2% in 8 constituencies and of more than 2% in 7 connstituencies. The RTE/Cara computer was programmed to compute swings on a first preference vote basis. It took no account of factors such as the extraordinary showing of the H-Block candidates in the last election, nor of the effect of the absence of the likes of John O'Connell and Noel Browne. Thus it presented a vastly misleading picture of what happened.

We have presented the swing factor in terms of the last effective count for Fianna Fail. The last effective count in this case means the vote with which Fianna Fail ended up, net of loss of transfers and of gains from other candidates. The last effective count figure gives the true picture of the effective Fianna Fail vote - the vote which determines how many seats the party gets. It is the swing in this vote which is critical.

The figures in brackets refer to the June 1981 election.

THE NEW BATTLEGROUND

If the Dail fails to elect a Taoiseaeh on March 9 there will be another election in five weeks time. If the new buddget is defeated there will be an election in eight weeks time. In any event there is a strong likelihood of another election within the next four months. The following is the battleeground for the next election, presented in terms of what would happen given the stated swings for and against Flanna Fail. ~

SWING AGAINST FlANNA FAIL
Sligo-Leitrim (0.2%)
Kildare (0.3%)
Louth (0.4%)
Dun Laoghaire (0.9%)
Laois-Offaly (1.2%)
Wexford (1.2%)
Clare (1.6%)

SWING TOWARDS FlANNA FAIL

Tipperary North (0.1%)
Waterford (0.1%)
Cork East (0.3%)
Wicklow (0.5%)
Carlow-Kilkenny (0.8%)
Dublin West (0.8%)
Kerry South (0.8%)
Cork North East (1.2%)
Dublin North (1.8%)