The dismal prospects for politics

Fine Gael demoralised, Labour becalmed, Sinn Féin discredited, Green defected, socialists defeated, the next five years are likely to be dreary. By Vincent Browne

The election outcome initially was an adreline rush for Fine Gael. The recovery of 20 of the seats lost in 2002 was a considerable achievement for Enda Kenny and, theoretically, the party was in a position to challenge for government. But the reality is the party won a smaller share of the vote than it got in 1997 and remains well below the high-water mark of the Garret FitzGerald era (in November 1982 Fine Gael won 39.2 per cent of the vote).

Facing into another five years in opposition is a dismal prospect for Fine Gael, as it is for Labour. All the more so since our form of parliamentary democracy makes parliament a creature of the government of the day, insulated by party whips from any independent exercise of parliament autonomy.

Fine Gael has been in office for only 11 of the last 50 years. By 2012 that perspective will look even worse – 11 of the previous 55 years, with Fianna Fáil in office for 44 of these years.  As much as Fianna Fáil is the party of government, Fine Gael is the party of opposition, a position made all the more unsatisfactory by there being now no significant policy differences of any kind between these two main parties.

And in 2012 the hopes of Fine Gael regaining office will not seem too promising either. Again there will be no policy difference. Again Fine Gael will be campaigning on a negative ticket – Fianna Fáil having been in office for too long, instances of incompetence and mismanagement. But again, even more so, Fianna Fáil will have the advantage of even more experience in office, more credibility as managers of the economy and the country.

Enda Kenny will be encouraged to remain on as leader because of the perceived electoral success but as time goes by his weaknesses will become more exposed: his difficulties in handling complex briefs on economic, social and legal matters, his vagueness on detail, his tendency to incoherence. And as the polls show no improvement in the party's standing, Fine Gael is likely to do to Enda Kenny what it did to John Bruton – a ruthless, calculated dismissal. He serves to avoid that but only by going voluntary in the meantime can he do so.

Not that there are legions of credible leadership contenders lining up in Fine Gael. Richard Bruton is by far the most accomplished performer but his willingness to last the pace may be in doubt now and, anyway, the desire for a “new” face may come against him. Simon Coveney might have been considered an option but his listless performances during the campaign will have done him no favours. Olwyn Enright might be an attractive option but she is untested so far and likely to be distracted by family responsibilities.

For Labour the prospects are similarly bleak and the leadership options even more miserable. The party was so eager to go into office with Fianna Fáil this time in the face of so many repeated promises it would not do so, that its credibility is at a low ebb too. Labour was the only main party to lose ground in this election and it did so because of a lack of leadership and definition. It forsaked the “Left” to a centrist/right-of-centre coalition with Fine Gael, and  a reversal to a more defined position on the left is not a credible option for the present leadership, indeed for almost anybody in the party.

Pat Rabbitte would be sacked as leader now were there a credible alternative. Even in the absence of a credible alternative when his time is up in October 2008 he is almost certain to be ousted, unless he agrees to go quietly.

For the “Left” as a whole this election and its aftermath has been a serious reversal. It lost its most credible and effective spokesperson, Joe Higgins. One of the parties of the notional “Left”, the Greens, have abandoned “Left” politics by going into government with Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin abandoned “Left” politics in the course of the election by its opportunism, dropping of all commitments that might be a turn-off for potential government coalition partners. The opportunistic antics of Finian McGrath, the previously regarded “Left” independent has seen another defection. The defeat of the socialist independent, Seamus Healy, in South Tipperary was another reversal.

Politics is likely to be as dreary in the next five years as for a long time, unless it is rescued by “events”.