Fianna Fail-Labour still the most plausible combination

There remains a suspicion that the discussions with Fianna Fail and the Greens is a smokescreen. The areas of disagreement seem too great for there to be any prospect of agreement (for instance, co-location of private and public hospitals and the use of Shannon by US troops). But more critically, it is unlikely Fianna Fail will agree to be dependent on a party which is controlled by its volatile (from the Fianna Fail perspective) membership.

The suggestion that the Greens would join a Fianna Fail/PD alliance seems even more farfetched. Such a deal would discredit both the Greens and the PDs (not that the latter prospect is any more relevant).

There is the further issue of Bertie's money. It seems implausible that the Greens could get a deal with Fianna Fail by its conference without guarantees on the Bertie money issue, guarantees that, essentially, are undeliverable.

While the likes of Trevor Sergeant (in spite of his repeated protestations to the contrary before the election) and John Gormley are desperate to get into office, there is no such enthusiasm among the likes of Ciaran Cuffe and Eamon Ryan, still less so among the membership.

Far more plausible is a Fianna Fail-Labour alliance. Pat Rabbitte's pre-election protestations that he could not put Fianna Fail back in government never counted for anything. Several Labour TDs want to get into office – for most of them it is their last chance of office – and the trade union movement want a Fianna Fail-Labour deal.

For Fianna Fail it has one major disadvantage – it involves sacrificing five cabinet seats and five junior ministries. But the upside is very appealing. It guarantees a five-year government with Labour and, furthermore, it guarantees a further five years in office for in an election in 2012 there would be no plausible alternative.