Election possibilities
Fianna Fail, to paraphrase novelist Alasdair Gray, may be in danger of becoming the ‘party that will bake and eat itself'. Having overseen prosperity and renewed promise it is now stands on the verge of imploding due to internal strife. The electorate is about to be seated at the banquet table and it is unclear as to whether it will opt for the sweet new crème brulee of Fine Gael and Labour, garnished perhaps with a Green sprig, but most definitely with a cherry on top, or old Bertie's tried and tested recipe served on a tough PD base.
As Pat Rabbitte polishes the bells of his hat in anticipation of his appointment as Dail jester, his Emperor Enda Kenny is beginning to feel his invisible garments morph into a very real cloak of governance. Fine Gael has attacked the island armed with a razor light smile and pristine albeit slightly wooden leader. But has the charm offensive really grown teeth or is it merely a consoling shoulder offered with dubious intent to an electorate still attempting to work out its true feelings towards its nurturing yet mischievous government partner.
Enda Kenny's new found confidence showed sinister vigour when he alleged that Fianna Fails coalition partner was to blame for the leaking of confidential documents. Although Richard Bruton offered a dignified response, this impulsive act of over confidence if left untreated could ultimately spell the downfall for the man who would not look out of place on a US election poster. The Government, notably the PDs and their Leader Tánaiste Michael McDowell, are adept at dealing with such flying shrapnel and Enda should be warned that perhaps if he turned this election into a forum of verbal chicanery it could significantly loosen his tentative hand on the reins. Fine Gael undoubtedly are a serious and worthy contender.
It would appear that the opposition's best chance to seize power would be a bloodless coup in which it at no point engages in meaningful policy debate or offers resistance to a shot across the bow. The Greens are no virgins of this strategy, but it will mean an unfamiliar reserved stance from the Labour leader and a continuation of Enda Kenny's smiling denigration. If the Alliance is to win this election it will be by virtue of a cosy chat from the fireside, promise change and popular policy whilst at all times wearing the mask cloned from that of Mr Kenny. ‘Change for change sake' could yet be the silent slogan that wins this election.
To date, Bertie's bodyguard Brian Cowen to date has defended his weary vessel valiantly and the polls may yet reflect this. It is worth noting in any poll that a percentage of people will adopt a stance against the government so as to register protest, but will they all dip the quill in ink on polling day? Fianna Fail for their part will continue to hit the headlines with strongly worded press conferences attempting to address ongoing issues on the national agenda. The historic developments in the North and a change of heart with the passing of time could find the removal men quietly in reverse outside Government chambers. They will be hopping time will be an ally where all things ‘Bertie' and Finances are forgotten.
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The PDs are to some extent a victim of their own success. If success is to govern then the PDs have excelled. But the strong stance taken on certain issues and unwarranted attacks of personnel from some segments of the media could see their principles go unrewarded. Yet not unlike Fianna Fail the party may yet find a platform from which it can be effectively heard and some of the doom merchants may yet find themselves hopping off the bandwagon from which they gave PD seats so freely. That said, Tanaiste McDowell and his ranks will have to act fast if they are to win anything near the eight seats secured in 2002.
Pat Rabbitte could yet be asked to don his tri-point hat in a very different court, if he discovers that the one he loves most was in power all along. Bertie is most definitely under pressure, but by no accounts is he on board a sinking ship with bucket in hand. Whilst the smiling army of the alliance continues to offer the shoulder, Bertie will be aware that, as Truman Capote said, ‘murderers often come wearing smiling faces'. This is a battle that is far from over and Mr Kenny may yet unsheathe his blade, but it remains to be seen as to whether it will strike foe..or his foot.