Time for the PDs to deliver

For some months now the Government jet has been cruising along nicely on the wings of strong economic growth and kudos from its showdown with Sinn Féin and the IRA. Opinion polls show support for the government parties growing while the opposition parties lose ground.

But there is turbulence ahead for the coalition: the storm clouds are gathering. This weekend the Progressive Democrats meet in Cork for their annual party conference and party activists know that it's time to start beating the war drum. The PDs need to start delivering on their reform agenda, at the very least in the key area of transport, or the party could very well end up "redundant" and anything but "radical" as once predicted by Michael McDowell.

The reputation of the PDs as a "can-do party", a slayer of monopolies and a promoter of competition will be on the line if Mary Harney and Michael McDowell fail to reassert their credentials in this area.

While their coalition partners may be quite happy to hold a cruising altitude and do nothing that could lose votes between now and the next election, the PDs cannot afford to be so complacent.

Despite celebrating 20 years as a political party this year, the survival of the PDs remains precarious. The local elections proved a big disappointment and the party remains largely a personality-driven one that could be wiped out by a political tsunami of the type that decimated Fine Gael in 2002.

The problem for the PDs is that the Taoiseach and his pals in the trade unions have been running rings around them on the issue of transport by delaying a Government decision on the future of Aer Lingus and the second terminal at Dublin Airport.

Bertie and the unions don't want an independently-owned and operated second terminal; Mary Harney, the PDs, Michael O'Leary (and the 13 other applicants who submitted expressions of interest to the government to build and operate an independent terminal two years ago) do.

As things stand, the coalition parties are on a collision course; a battle royal looms between Liberty Hall and the PD wing of Government. Neither side wants a show down or to risk losing power before their expiry date in 2007, but unless a compromise is found, it could be the issue that breaks up this government.

So, delegates to the PD conference this weekend will be disappointed if Mary Harney doesn't use the occasion to at least take a few pot shots at the unions for their role in blocking progress on the airport terminal.

Time is running out for the PDs to deliver on the issue. Last year at the party's conference in Killarney, delegates made repeated demands for major transport reforms while Mary Harney told The Irish Times that her party's continued participation in the Government would be in question if it failed to liberalise bus routes and break up Aer Rianta.

"The Programme for Government is very clear in relation to targets in this area", the Tánaiste told The Irish Times. "If we can't have those commitments implemented then we would have to ask ourselves why would we stay there? The reforms in transport are fairly central. They are unique commitments that we made in the general election. They were negotiated with our colleagues in Government and agreed to, and enthusiastically embraced, by the line Minister, Seamus Brennan."

One year on, Aer Rianta has been broken up but proposals to break up CIÉ and deregulate Dublin Bus have been sidelined, as has Seamus Brennan. Now, the issue of the second terminal (also a commitment in the Programme for Government) has been added to the transport tug-of-war between the coalition parties and it could well become an explosive ingredient as the two parties seek to define themselves ahead of the next election.

In a prescient comment that anticipated the difficulties experienced by proponents of a second terminal, the Tánaiste told The Irish Times a year ago: "There are two ways to kill a reform agenda. One is not to act on it, or delay it, or get involved in endless discussions and consultation. Consultation cannot be a substitute for decision," she continued.

So far, Bertie Ahern and the trade unions have used both inaction and procrastination to kill off the notion of an independent terminal but the dithering cannot go on for much longer. The PDs will have to show they can walk their talk or, if not, walk away from Government.

Ursula Halligan is TV3's Political Editor and presenter of The Political Party, TV3, 5pm, Sundays