It's not just the economy, stupid!

Fianna Fáil TDs, Ministers of State and Government ministers are all running around like headless chickens in the wake of the two recent negative opinion polls, repeatedly chanting to themselves the mantra: "It's the economy, stupid. It's the economy, stupid."

Of course, it's patently obvious that it's not just the economy, that large sections of the electorate are unhappy about the Government's loss of touch in key areas, especially health, transport and political management.

The disarray in the national partnership talks, along with the awful decentralisation mess, are just reinforcing the view that this is a Government which has lost its way and doesn't know how to find its way back.

Commenting last weekend on the opinion polls, education minister Mary Hanafin, one of the brighter young sparks in the Government and a real banker for future party advancement, had nothing to offer except a tired appeal to keep the stability that the current Government has given us. She seemed impervious to the fact that is largely a stability of policy stagnation, and that the more the Government flounder around the more the electorate will look at the possibilities of an alternative.

It seems that leading elements of Fianna Fáil are spending their time talking to their cronies in the world of business rather than listening to their own members or supporters.

The PDs' Mary Harney has manifestly failed to quell public unease about health, and unless Fianna Fáil take charge of this issue and produce signs of real improvement within the year left to the next election they will pay a heavy price at the polls.

There is equally widespread public frustration at the transport situation. While there are significant infrastructural improvements, the tolling of roads – and the consequent logjam on the M50 toll bridge – are deeply unpopular, but the Government is unable or unwilling to change tack.

Decentralisation is causing huge disruption and demoralisation in the public service, especially but not exclusively in state agencies, but the Government still remains unable to grasp the nettle of ditching a bad policy and trying to reconstruct it in a more realistic fashion.

Instead Government ministers blink like rabbits caught in a car's headlights, and wonder why economic success is not guaranteeing re-election. It's the quality of life, stupid!

Of course, the rainbow alternative are still a long way off winning power. They too are stumbling along, and if the electorate desert the FF-PD alliance they will do so without any great enthusiasm.

More likely, Fianna Fáil will still manage to crawl back into office, with Labour – but neither Fianna Fáil nor Labour have given any indication that they have any new ideas for any new departure: Fianna Fáil because it is unwilling and unable to admit mistakes and change tack; Labour because it is in thrall to Fine Gael.

But a quick look at the constituencies shows that Fianna Fáil are facing real problems that must be addressed if they are to have coherence in government next time around, if they do manage to stay there.

At the moment, in Dublin, they look certain to lose seats in North (a big issue here being the privatisation of Aer Lingus which the Government can't seem to abandon), North-East, North-West, Central and South-West; and there are possible seat losses in North Central, South-East, South-Central and Dún Laoghaire. Five or possibly nine losses in Dublin alone.

In Connacht-Ulster, they could lose seats in Donegal South-West and North-East, one or two in the Roscommon-Sligo-Leitrim combine, and even their one seat in Mayo, with no gains in either Galway constituency. A loss of three, four or in the worst case five.

In Munster, seats are in danger in Kerry North, Limerick West, Tipperary North, Cork North-West and South-West, Cork North and South-Central and Cork East. A possible loss of seven or eight seats.

And in Leinster the party will probably lose Kildare South, and is under pressure in Meath, Wexford, Carlow-Kilkenny, and even Laois-Offaly: a probable loss of three or four.

That's a total potential loss of 18 upwards.

The blame for this lies squarely with the Taoiseach for it is his policies of drift, combined with a total abdication to PD privatisation ideology that has undermined Fianna Fáil's core support and left it floundering.

It can be saved, of course. But radical surgery is needed, and that means putting the PDs in their place, or breaking with them if necessary. Stopping the rot in Aer Lingus and the airports, ending the privatisation obsessions, taking charge and solving the A&E crisis, abandoning the decentralisation fiasco, ending the arrogance, and starting to listen to people again.

Showing a bit of dynamism, Fianna Fáil could use its trump card of the North to some effect, with the Rainbow exposed as anti-nationalist at a crucial time for the peace process. But unless Fianna Fáil gets its act together on the basics, all the good work elsewhere will count for nothing. Eoin Ó Murchú is the Eagraí Polaitíochta of RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta. He is writing here in a personal capacity.