Africa will suffer most

Climate change caused by the world's richest countries will lead to hundreds of millions of deaths in Africa by 2100. Chris Connolly reports

Up to 185 million Africans could die by the end of this century if global warming continues at its current pace, according to The Climate of Poverty: Facts, Fears and Hope, a new report by Christian Aid.

The spread of disease, along with climate-induced floods, famine, drought and conflict exacerbated by global warming, could kill tens of millions throughout the world and result in millions more refugees unless rich nations end their dependence on fossil fuels and aid poorer nations to switch to renewable energy sources.

In 2003 the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated that 150,000 died from diseases caused by climate change. If current climate change trends continue, their effects will be hardest felt in Africa. Currently 90 per cent of all malaria deaths (2.7 million) each year occur in Africa, mostly children under the age of five. If cooler regions become warmer and rainfall increases in the tropical zones of Africa, the malarial mosquito will survive and spread into new regions. There are already signs that this has happened in some areas of Tanzania and Rwanda. Other illnesses, such as diarrhoea, meningitis and cholera, will also become more prevalent.

Although African countries will be among those most affected by continued climate change, they produce significantly lower amounts of CO2 emissions than developed countries. On average, each African person creates one metric tonne of CO2 each year, compared with 24 metric tonnes per person in America. Africa's most developed countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Algeria) account for 88 per cent of the continent's emissions.

What these figures point to is “a vast discrepancy between rich and poor. The richer and more developed the country, the larger the damaging fog of greenhouse gas that surrounds it; the poorer the country, the fewer emissions. Industrialised nations account for 80 per cent of all the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere,” the report says.

Christian Aid is calling on both the Irish and British governments to set an example for other developed countries by instituting a strict “carbon budget” which would reduce emissions by two thirds of 1990 levels by 2050. Richer countries must also offer revised financial support to developing countries by way of “compensation” for the damage already caused to the environment. Programmes for the provision of renewable energy in underdeveloped countries must also be funded. “Climate change is taking place and will inevitably continue.”

The Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012 and is the only global vehicle for cutting carbon emissions, is seen as ineffective due to haggling over target levels and strategies. It does not commit the major developing nations to make any reductions, and it is rejected by the USA – the world's worst polluter. With talks beginning on a successor to Kyoto, Christian Aid said developed nations must cut carbon dioxide emissions dramatically if global warming is to be slowed.

Global temperatures increased by 0.6 degrees centigrade in the last century, two thirds of this increase happening since 1975. In Africa, this has resulted in increased rainfall in wet, tropical regions, while rain has decreased measurably in arid areas. In a continent where 70 per cent of the working population rely on agriculture to make a living, the effects of further climate change, namely drought and flooding, could put huge numbers of people's livelihoods at risk, resulting in an increase in famine and forcing the displacement of millions.

As key resources like water and fertile land become more scarce the risk of violent conflicts will increase. In Kenya, the unprecedented drought in the region has resulted in farmers killing each other for the use of a diminishing number of water-holes.
Weather-related disasters have increased dramatically over the last 30 to 40 years. Although there is no way that global warming can be proven to have caused individual weather events, there is growing agreement in the scientific community that extreme weather trends can only be worsened by increasing climate change.

Disasters such as hurricane Katrina and the drought in East Africa this year are seen as a foretaste of increasingly regular and more violent weather patterns resulting from climate change.

The IPCC's Fourth Assesment Report, due to be published next year, is expected to “make explicit the fact that global warming is directly responsible for the changing climate”.

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