Race to bottom

In agreeing the conditions for the entry of the trade union movement into talks for a successor to the Sustaining Progress partnership agreement, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has agreed implicitly with SIPTU's analysis of labour market trends. That may be a big mistake.

The unions say there is a “race to the bottom”, with businesses displacing existing workers, to be replaced with cheaper foreign labour. While the Irish Ferries example cannot be replicated, in that minimum wage legislation applies onshore, SIPTU in particular believes that in certain sectors employers are trying to replace highly-paid workers in construction, meat plants and hospitality, with workers paid at or near the minimum wage.

Or they are putting together structures for foreign workers who return part of their pay to cover accommodation, transport and other things? (Something that will become worse if Charlie McCreevy introduces a new EU social directive to allow foreign companies to operate in Ireland on terms applicable at home.)

Trouble is, apart from some anecdotal evidence, there are few other hard facts to support that. Dealing with a problem that may not exist in any great scale may be the sticking point in forthcoming pay talks.

An analysis of the statistics by economists at Davy Stockbrokers would not find favour with SIPTU in particular. It suggests not just that 100,000 new jobs were created in Ireland last year, but that wage growth still amounted to 5 per cent, the same level as in 2004 and twice the European average. Construction accounted for one-third of the employment growth, with 10,000 immigrants included in the figure, and for above average wage growth, at about nine per cent. That hardly suggests the foreigners were being taken on at low rates or that they were replacing domestic employees.

If pay rates have suffered in the manufacturing sector, that is as much down to the weakness in exports caused by the exchange rate and a loss of competitiveness as it is down to a replacement of workers with cheaper foreign labour. It suggests the unions are looking at the wrong problem and that there is a danger of Government being forced to repeat the mistake for political expediency.

Davy also suggests the wave of immigration has helped keep a cap on wage growth. It suggests that if immigration had been curtailed – by means of work permits for example – then the growth in the labour force last year would have been cut in half. “The labour market would now be very tight, output would be constrained and the situation that existed in 2000/2001 may have re-occurred when rapid wage inflation led to overheating and a surge in consumer price inflation,” it argues.

Davy admits there may be issues about over-supply in the future if the economy slows. What it doesn't say is that there could be problems if a large supply of foreign labour is suddenly unemployed and that its departure would not necessarily help either, as it could leave a large amount of rented accommodation empty. But, for as long as this boom continues, those foreign workers are needed badly, no matter what the unions and some politicians might argue.

Progressive Fine Gael?

Nobody from Fine Gael or the Progressive Democrats was ever likely to confirm Michael Clifford's report in the Sunday Tribune (15 January) that talks about a possible merger of the parties had taken place in the lifetime of this Dáil.

Mary Harney's public courting in November of Fine Gael as a possible coalition partner after the next general election was just about acceptable to her current coalition partner Fianna Fáil. Confirming that outright merger talks with FF's major rival had taken place in 2002, shortly after they had rejoined FF in Government, would have been very damaging.

And the reality is that the PDs retain a hope of clinging to power alongside Fianna Fáil, possibly with the support of independents, as happened between 1997 and 2002, and regard this as the best shot at future political relevance

Fine Gael had nothing to gain from confirming the story either. It has to proceed with the fiction that it can make up enough ground in the next election to be able to lead a new coalition. To accept otherwise would be to risk losing the only reason many people might have to consider voting for Fine Gael: the expectation that it would help lead to the formation of an alternative to the present arrangement.

There are two other main reasons why such a merger won't happen prior to the next election, but just might afterwards.

The first is the fear of a Labour/Democratic Left outcome. That merger, to use the business parlance, turned more into a reverse take-over of the bigger outfit by the smaller party. More importantly, the combined did not become the sum of the parts, but the vote that the new entity can command is about equivalent to what Labour could have expected without Democratic Left.

The second reason is that such a merger would involve the collision of gigantic egos. Who would lead a combined party? Would Fine Gael like to be lead by a combination of Michael McDowell (a traitor to Garret FitzGerald, it should be remembered) and Mary Harney? Or if Enda Kenny was to be given full control, how long would he remain in situ with that formidable pair breathing over his shoulder? And what would it be called, in light of Clifford's suggestion that one prominent unnamed PD wanted the Fine Gael name jettisoned? (It's easy to think who might have suggested that.)

The matter of policy differences does not even count as a third issue. Just as the PDs and FF are very close in their thinking, there is little difference in substance between the PDs and FG (just as FF and FG share much of the same ideals and methodologies of politics as well).

It could be a different matter after the 2007 general election, however. Assume that both the PDs and Fine Gael are consigned to the opposition benches. The PDs would be convulsed by the loss of power after 10 years in office. Fine Gael would be distraught about the failure to regain power. The attraction of merger would become much greater, especially if Labour had joined Fianna Fáil in power.

There's another possibility. Maybe Fine Gael, the PDs and Labour (and possibly even the Greens) might join in government together as a giant coalition. Labour won't want to share power with the PDs, regarding it as just as culpable as Fianna Fáil for the government mismanagement of the last eight-and-a-half years. But could it deal with former PD ministers, who would then be senior members of a Fine Gael party to whom it is committed?

Galloway is odious, a bully and a narcissist

It could only have happened on television. George Galloway MP is morphing into David Brent: a real-life, political version of the fictional character made famous in the brilliant British comedy series, The Office. Galloway's vanity has become compulsive viewing on Celebrity Big Brother, which has rendered the RTÉ nine o'clock news redundant in my house.

It doesn't matter whether you are left or right in your political views, or what your position on Iraq is, or what your opinion of the man was before he appeared nightly on this programme. There can only be one verdict now: Galloway has been revealed as utterly odious, a bully and a narcissist.

He will be remembered mostly now for his sexual antics with actress Rula Lenska, rather than his prominence in the anti-war movement. If you haven't heard, or didn't see the hourly re-runs on Sky News last Friday, as part of a Big Brother experiment, Galloway role-played as a cat. He went on all fours and pretended to lick cream from her hands as she stroked behind his ears and asked “would you rather be at home with Mummy?” I'm not making this up.

But there's been lots of other things: kissing performer Michael Barrymore on his forehead to comfort him as he wept; acting as a laboratory assistant while the aforementioned Rula stared at a goldfish to establish whether she could read its mind; arguing childishly with Barrymore as to how many cigars he had given him from his stash.

That's just the stupidity. There was serious nastiness too. The man who shamelessly kissed Saddam Hussein's butt in public tore into page-three model Jodie Marsh because of her coarse discussion of sexual matters. Distasteful as Marsh may be, she wasn't a mass murderer of the type Galloway has defended – and it is also clear she has emotional and intellectual problems that will not be helped by his sanctimonious hectoring of her.

So it was pathetic then to see him gloat on Saturday evening – to camera in the “diary room” – of how proud he was to have beaten a page-three tart in a public vote, as it was an endorsement of his brave, anti-war, left-wing politics.

If it hasn't happened already (Galloway remains in this “house” at the time of writing), Galloway's eviction promises to be a wonderful television moment.

It is to be expected confidently that he will strut into the public gaze, savouring the latest opportunity to play to what he will anticipate is an adoring gallery.

Marsh was booed loudly by a hostile crowd on her eviction last Friday evening. Galloway is likely to get a much worse reception – and much better for the viewer – as Galloway is unlikely to be able to cope with naked hostility.
And that will only be the start of his discomfort, as he will be mocked by every interviewer and berated by many of his constituents before he, in the way of the bully, tries to shout them all down. It will be gorgeous and the credibility of the anti-war movement may actually be helped by his inevitable departure from the public stage as a serious commentator.

Taking too much from motorists

Road hauliers aren't the only ones who dislike tolls. Many ordinary motorists hate them too and this is an issue the Opposition could exploit between now and General Election time, to the great discomfort of the Government.
The new M4 is the cause of the latest outbreak of displeasure and has brought about the protest that hauliers conducted on Monday 16 January on the road. There was some sympathy from users of the M50's now-infamous West-Link toll plaza, of the River Liffey East-Link bridge, and of the M1 toll booth near Drogheda.

The price of using the newest piece of infrastructure is €2.50 per car for 40-kilometre stretch of road. It is €6.20 for trucks. For occasional car users who want to cut 15-20 minutes off their journey, it is probably fine: the price of a large latte in a Dublin café.

For truckers especially, and for daily motorists, it is an expense that quickly adds up, and one which has persuaded many that staying on the old route – through the towns of Enfield, Kilcock and Kinnegad – is better value for their money. It is worth noting that Drogheda still gets clogged by heavy traffic from those that refuse to pay to use the M1 that bypasses the town.

Over the next 18 months, motorists will find that the number of places where tolls are imposed will increase as new motorways open. The Fermoy by-pass plaza is under construction, so the new section of the Cork-Dublin motorway may be open before the end of the year. The long overdue Dublin Port Tunnel should be open some time this year and high tolls will apply.

The NRA has plans for tolls on some of its major new projects: the Limerick Tunnel; the N25 Waterford bypass; the N3 Clonee bypass; the N6 between Galway and Ballinasloe; and the N7/N8 Portlaoise/Cullahil/ Castletown Motorway. The suspicion is that the NRA might like to toll roads already long built, such as the Jack Lynch tunnel in Cork or the Kildare by-pass.

The idea is that it would not just help to pay for those individual projects, but for other roads, primary and secondary, throughout the country where the NRA could not levy tolls. The involvement of private investors, through public-private partnerships, also has to be repaid. In the recent transport initiative announced by Government, it was anticipated that €8 billion of the planned €36 billion spend will come from the private sector.

There are obvious benefits to these new roads, such as a reduction in journey times and safer stretches where accidents are less likely to occur. However, the Government may find that public appreciation is limited.

Motorists already pay €4.6 billion per annum in motor-related taxes, such as Vehicle Registration Tax, fuel excise and road licences. If the Government was to ring-fence these taxes, it could pay for the entire €34 billion Transport 21 project in just over seven years – three years sooner than the current ten-year completion date and without private investment.

The reality is that much of the motoring taxes go into the general exchequer. Between 1997 and 2005, for example, the total investment in regional and local roads amounted to €4.5 billion, which is obviously less than the Government collects in taxes in just a single year from motorists.

As the Automobile Association has argued, tolls can cause delays and frustration on the motorways themselves and, even more significantly, a great deal of congestion and disruption in the towns and villages which the new roads were supposed to relieve. There are real costs involved in this but as they are not borne by the NRA, it does not seem to care.

Many voters might reward a political party that provides a fully-costed and fair alternative to tolls.

Ghosted political footballs

Pat Rabbitte is a man with an opinion on just about anything (a trait he shares with many broadcasters and print columnists, it should be admitted immediately, for fear of a “pot calling kettle black” response).

Nonetheless, the Labour leader's decision to query the appointment of Steve Staunton as the new Irish soccer manager, in a near full-page “leader page” opinion column in the Irish Sun (12 January), was unexpected. As was the glowering response from Louth man (and Minister for Foreign Affairs) Dermot Ahern in defence of his fellow countyman in the same spot in the following day's edition. Such are the things that occupy the attention of two of the country's political opinion-formers when the Dáil isn't sitting.

There is a tradition of Murdoch-owned tabloid newspapers taking first person opinion pieces from politicians for use on their leader pages. The News of the World, in particular, has offered a platform to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and other ministers on a regular basis.

It is a trend that has spread to the broadsheets in Ireland with the Irish Times and Irish Independent occasionally offering the facility to senior politicians. Sometimes they offer interesting and thought-provoking commentary, often they don't. But one thing is highly probable: rarely are they written by the named politicians and it is doubtful if some are even read by the so-called writers prior to publication.

Whatever happened to journalists interviewing people (including politicians), asking them pertinent questions and then fairly and accurately putting their responses into readable form? Why have newspapers ceded control over some of their most valuable editorial spaces to politicians of all people, allowing them unchecked and unhindered space to promulgate all sorts of guff?

Maybe it's better than what the journalists would write. But the Government doesn't invite journalists to guest as legislators. And thankfully, the FAI didn't ask journalists or politicians to pick the new manager of the Irish soccer team.

The Last Word with Matt Cooper is broadcast on 100-102 Today FM, Monday to Friday,
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