Saved by the opposition

Now the new year reviving old desires, the thoughtful soul to solitude retires... but alas for our politicians they must now get stuck in to a gruelling final run-in to next year's general election.

The Government, or at least the Fianna Fáil component of it, is still timorously confident. Things haven't worked out the way they wanted and the dark clouds on the horizon are looming as large as ever, but opinion poll figures still indicate that the Fine Gael led Rainbow won't have the numbers to do it.

Still, Fine Gael are at least on the pitch, and there is a chance – something that would have been laughed at after the last election; and that achievement can be bettered if the Rainbow can act together to put flesh on the skeleton of their alternative Government.

The first half of this year will be the time for them to try out various options, but by next autumn the two leading parties at least – Fine Gael and Labour – will have to have a joint hymn sheet if the Rainbow option is to be viable at all. That, of course, is easier said than done.

For the Government, things haven't worked out as expected. The idea was that a couple of years of belt tightening would ensure strong economic growth on the strength of which the Government would be able to sail back in. But despite the excellent economic indicators the prevailing public mood is one of disquiet, discontent and a desire to punish the Government.

Obvious issues like health, transport, and childcare and so on are easy to identify, but so far the Government has failed to win public confidence in relation to these issues. It has been saved only by an even deeper lack of confidence in the alternative.

The Government's real problem, though, is that it is beginning to look as tired as it feels. There are no new ideas; or rather the only new ideas are the Thatcherite privatisation obsessions of the Progressive Democrats who resolutely prop up the bottom of the party popularity table and are determined to do to healthcare in Ireland what Bush did to Medicare in the US. The very thought of it gives Fianna Fáil the shivers.

What Fianna Fáil need is some public demonstration of their ability to get things done, and to achieve crucial social and political agreements vital for the economy and for the nation's sense of itself. In practical terms, that means that the national partnership talks – on the economic front – and the effort to make the final breakthrough in re-establishing the Good Friday institutions – on the national front – are crucial for the party and Government in this pre-election year.

But the signs don't look good. The Government hoped that ending the Irish Ferries dispute would settle trade union nerves and allow partnership talks to get underway.

But cruelly, SIPTU President Jack O'Connor had to disabuse the Government of this notion this week, when he said that he couldn't see how his union could enter such talks unless they were convinced that measures will emerge to make sure than an Irish Ferries type situation can't happen again. As Gerry Adams might say, Irish Ferries haven't gone away, you know.

This issue is crucial for the unions: if they don't win the war, having at best achieved a tactical retreat in the battle, they may as well throw their hat at it. O'Connor knows this, and he is in no mood for plámás, as his comments this week showed. What he wants is legislation to outlaw the Irish Ferries' way of driving wages down to subsistence levels and below, and he is uninterested in protestations about EU rules and so on. The union argument is simple: if the rules aren't right, change them!

But even if Fianna Fáil bite the bullet on this, can they be sure that the PDs will come with them?

Elsewhere it was also hoped that the final breakthrough on the North would shower the Government and Bertie Ahern with well-earned praise. But the signs aren't good here either. Sinn Féin are vital for bedding down the agreement, but the Government has thrown caution to the winds in attacking and undermining the party, allowing Michael McDowell to indulge every passion for anti-Republican bile he can conjure up.

Fine stuff, but it butters no parsnips, and with British prime minister Tony Blair on his way out and the unionists looking hopefully to Gordon Brown or to the Tories' David Cameron, only a united nationalist front could have any prospect of carrying the day. That united front doesn't exist and will not exist so long as Michael McDowell is given his head; so it looks like no plaudits for Bertie on this one either.

With the health service in continuing crisis, increasing fears about the role of immigrant labour in driving down Irish wages and conditions, the ball is at the feet of the Opposition. The minor parties like Sinn Féin will reap benefits, but if Enda Kenny wants to get into Government he too will have to start spelling out programmes that are acceptable to his own vote base but are also tolerable for Labour's increasingly restive supporters.

For the old days of tame poodles dutifully trotting behind the major coalition party with little or no impact on policy are over. There are too many alternatives crowding behind Labour's shoulder, so the stakes are raised accordingly.

It looks to be an interesting session.

Eoin Ó Murchú is the Eagraí Polaitíochta of RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta. He is writing here in a personal capacity