The French revolution

The French are ditching traditional papers, such as Le Monde and Figaro, in favour of easy-to-read free-sheets. The Irish mainstream press will have to make sute the same doesn't happen here.

Last week this column focused on the imminent launch in Dublin of Associated Newspapers' Metro giveaway and its possible impact on the relatively stable daily print market in the capital.

Independent News and Media, potentially the biggest losers if Metro meets expectations, have been taking a sanguine line about all this, hinting that they too may launch their own free-sheet and that plans are in hand for an early launch if required.

But the print circulation news from France can have done little to soothe nerves anywhere in the Dublin publishing houses. Sales of the French national dailies continue to tumble – in spite of re-launches, re-designs and heavy promotional activity. Much of the blame for the drop in sale of the Paris-based titles is being attributed to the success of the country's new free-sheets, now circulating in the bigger cities with an average daily distribution well in excess of one million copies.

The prestigious Le Monde is down 4.1 per cent year on year. Figaro, the conservative daily is down 3.1 per cent. The left-wing Liberation is down almost 8 per cent. For the first time, the combined circulation of France's national (Paris-published) newspapers is under 1.5 million. In contrast, the UKs London-based dailies sell something more than 11 million copies a day – among a population roughly the same as that of France.

France's taste for free-sheets and sub-compacts has been a slow evolution. Almost ten years ago, I sat in on planning meetings at Le Monde for the launch of a miniaturised Monde that would hopefully appeal to commuters and younger generation readers who could not be persuaded to go for the full-strength parent-publication. It launched successfully and got a share of advertising support. Nonetheless, after two years and a great deal of money it disappeared.

But the formula of the "20 Minutes" free-sheet (which originated in Norway) seems to have struck a chord with the French. They have taken readily to "la presse gratuite." The "20 Minutes" masthead (reflecting the length of time it takes to read it) has now been extended to a dozen countries and is Europe's second largest free-sheet chain, after the Stockholm-based Metro International.

Last week, the editor of France's "20 Minutes," Frederic Filloux, was quoted as saying, "The daily press in France is completely disconnected from the young people of the country. It is viewed as elitist, obsessed with politics and it is expensive."

An estimated seven out of ten of Filloux's readers are people (mainly aged between 20 and 40) who previously never read any newspaper at all. In the boardrooms of the Paris heavyweights this fact may have been initially greeted with some relief. But on closer examination any optimism turns out to be illusory. It is not simply that the free-sheets are building their own, new circulation base. They are taking the replacement readers that the national newspapers have to recruit from the younger age cohorts.

A newspaper's readership will "waste" by anything up to five per cent per annum as older readers die, become incapacitated, suffer loss of eyesight or – in many cases – change their tastes. Thus the publication must be able to gain up to five per cent of new readers each year merely to stand still. In a decade, a newspaper must be able to replace up to 50 per cent of its readership. Hence, the crucial necessity for newspapers to win young readers, in particular.

What are the lessons for the combatants in the looming war between traditional print and free-sheets in Ireland? Traditional newspaper chiefs will argue that France's national press has particular problems of its own that do not apply to its counterpart publications in Ireland. Irish national newspapers are well-embedded right across the community, socially, geographically and politically. They have levels of penetration that are multiples of Le Monde or Figaro. They do not have to compete against strong, entrenched regional dailies like Ouest France, Midi Libre, La Voix du Nord and so on. And on the worst of days, The Irish Times, the Irish Independent or The Irish Examiner sparkle with excitement by comparison with their dreary French counterparts.

Nonetheless, there are no grounds for complacency. Irish dailies are reasonably stable in terms of market-share and there is enough to go around in circulation and advertising to enable everyone to make a living. But the days of strong circulation growth appear to be over – at least for the present. The Irish Independent appeared to make a big jump forward by running two editions – tabloid and broadsheet – in tandem. But after a promising start the combined sales of both editions are hovering somewhere over 160,000. That is back to where the Independent was when it was in single-edition, broadsheet formula. The Irish Times is on the downside of 120,000 and is currently aiming to build circulation through its overseas editions.

In short, the daily market is not growing. And in time, "natural wastage" – if not replaced by new, younger readers, will see present circulation figures begin to drop.

This is ideal ground for the free-sheets. In a media landscape crammed with audio, visual, broadcast and web-based products, big newspapers with lots of pages, packed with type have to work hard to get even a small share of people's time – not to mention some of their money.

The news from France may not cause particular disquiet. But it is another straw in the wind, heralding the passing of traditionally safe assumptions. Irish newspaper managers and editors will also be monitoring what happens in the UK with the re-launch this week of The Guardian in a new Berliner format (a shade larger than conventional tabloid.) Sales of The Guardian have been falling away over the past two years and recently went under 350,000. Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger told this column last year that the re-launched newspaper would "brain-up" rather than-dumb down. More of this anon.

Conor Brady is Emeritus Editor of The Irish Times and a senior teaching fellow at the Michael Smurfit Graduate School of Business, UCD