Bertie still in the driving seat despite drop in party support

That was a cruel trick the Irish Times played on the opposition parties. On Saturday 11 June they published the first instalment of an opinion poll which seemed to have evidence to back up Pat Rabbitte's assertion that a pre-election pact would give a spur to new support for the opposition. but the second instalment on the following Monday demolished this illusion.

According to the poll, Fianna Fáil support has dropped six points, while that of Fine Gael and Labour went up five (three and two respectively). Good news for Rabbitte! But the sting was definitely in the tail when Monday's poll showed that, when offered various coalition alternatives, 51 per cent of the electorate wanted Fianna Fáil in Government as opposed to only 36 per cent who wanted to see Fine Gael there.

The myth that Fianna Fáil is the unpopular element that the electorate want to see out is refuted by those figures.

In fact, while the drop in Fianna Fáil support was dramatic, worrying for the party and not easily explained, the figures in general only confirm the main analysis that has been apparent for some time. This contends that despite the healthy state of the economy, there is an underlying dissatisfaction with the Government, but Fine Gael are not seen as the party to solve the problem.

This is bad news for Labour. Now that they have hitched their wagon behind Fine Gael's lead, Labour's own fortunes depend essentially on Fine Gael's surplus. And this poll doesn't yet give an indication that Fine Gael will have a surplus. Labour's problem is that the two parties will have the same election programme (that's what a pact is all about) and the only reason to choose one over the other is personal and individual. In these circumstances, the bigger party always gains the most.

In terms of government choice, the current Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat combination at 32 per cent is still ahead of the combined FG-Labour-Green option at 25 per cent – and there is no certainty whatever that the Greens will come on board or at what price.

The major point to emerge is that people want change, but want Fianna Fáil involved after the change. And that clearly shows that the PDs are the problem: privatisation, McDowell's antics against the peace process, the image of Thatcherite let-them-eat-cakeism.

Yet the main opposition have consistently taken their eye off the PD ball. Even Labour, which might have been assumed to be ideologically opposed to the PDs, has concentrated its fire against Fianna Fáil. But this poll suggests that the appalling vista of a Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition cannot be ruled out, Pat Rabbitte notwithstanding.

Fine Gael's leader, Enda Kenny, took his eye off the ball so much that he is on record as saying that he thanks god that Michael McDowell is in Government to hold Fianna Fáil back in relation to Sinn Féin, even though McDowell and the PDs are the biggest obstacle to a Fine Gael recovery.

This may not be civil war politics, but it is certainly a hankering back to the good old days of the 1960s when we had a two-and-a-half party system, with a straight-forward choice between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (with Labour). The realities of modern Ireland, with its complex kaleidoscope of opinions, parties and options, still escape the narrowness of their political outlook.

More interesting still, of course, was the fact that for the first time an opinion poll showed a larger number ready to vote against a European treaty than for it.

Even Fine Gael voters were against the EU Constitution (42 to 30). Labour supporters, despite the overwhelming conference vote in favour, came out 33 to 32 against, while Sinn Féin had a massive 53 to 25 opposition. Only Fianna Fáil and the PDs seem to miss the trend of contemporary thinking (39 to 28 and 35 to 26 respectively in favour).

Are our politicians in touch with what the people think?

One other point about the commentary on the poll that the Irish Times put out. Sinn Féin got 11 per cent support, and 11 per cent support for being in Government. The Times declared: "There is a very low tolerance for any Sinn Féin participation in government." But no such comment was made about the Greens, who with four per cent electoral support are tolerated in Government by just 12 per cent. Not much difference there.

But there's one caveat that should be borne in mind in relation to these figures: they indicate first preferences of coalition options. We can't say for sure on these figures what other options might be tolerable or what might be totally unacceptable.

All we can say for certain is that despite the drop in party support, Fianna Fáil still look poised to come back into Government after the next election. The Opposition have a lot of work to do to turn that around.

Eoin Ó Murchú is the Eagraí Polaitíochta of RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta. He is writing here in a personal capacity