Is Bertie plotting an early election?

Bertie Ahern's reputation for being cunning and devious sometimes makes people see cunning and deviousness in everything he says.

His announcement last week that he wanted the Government to run its full five year term and to fight the next general election "some time around the summer of 2007" has aroused suspicion in certain quarters of Leinster House.

Some wondered why, out of the blue, Bertie should suddenly feel the need to make such a statement. Especially since he already expressed the wish to go the full distance last November, when celebrating his tenth anniversary as leader of Fianna Fáil.

It was further noted that the Taoiseach's comments were not made in the heat of a media ambush or doorstep. They were volunteered to the Fianna Fáil party newspaper, The Nation. Serious Bertie watchers know the Taoiseach seldom says or does anything for nothing. His long-time cabinet and front bench colleague, Mary O'Rourke once famously remarked: "Everything Bertie Ahern does is for a purpose, usually for himself." So, what, then, was Bertie playing at?

Perhaps he was simply reassuring his troops that recent tensions with the PDs about a second airport terminal were not as serious as suggested by the media. Indeed, in his comments to The Nation, the Taoiseach went out of his way to say he had: "…an excellent working relationship with the Tanaiste and I believe it is the preference of both parties to serve out our mandate".

In the last coalition government few believed Bertie when he said (from the outset) that he would go the full five years. Such was his reputation for duplicity that some political rivals suspected the opposite to be the case; ie: that he was planning to spring an early election on them. The uncertainty kept the opposition parties on an election footing for two years before the Dáil was dissolved. By the time Bertie blew the final whistle, they were close to a state of exhaustion.

When it comes to political poker, the Taoiseach is a consummate player who plays his cards close to his chest. Even his brother, the Dublin TD, Noel Ahern, is unable to read him: "I'm straighter," he said a few years ago. "If you look me in the eye, you'll know what I'm thinking. If you look Bertie in the eye, it's quite difficult to know what he's thinking."

Compelling arguments can be marshalled for and against the calling of an early election. Those who say it would be madness argue that there isn't a sufficiently divisive issue around to justify a break-up; that the electorate would not appreciate being plunged into an unnecessary election and would punish either or both of the Government parties if they were responsible for one; that those who hold power rarely relinquish it until they absolutely have to and that smaller parties in a coalition gain more (in terms of profile, pensions, status and ability to get things done) from staying in power than joining the ranks of opposition.

Conversely, those who suspect the Taoiseach and/or the PDs of plotting a surprise run to the country argue it too makes sense because: it would deprive Sinn Féin (a potential challenger to Fianna Fáil seats in several Dublin constituencies) of the opportunity to rehabilitate itself with southern voters after recent controversies including the McCartney murder. It would also deprive the Rainbow parties of the time needed to form and sell a coherent alternative government.

And finally, if the break-up was initiated by a PD pull-out on an issue central to that party's agenda, it could help the junior partner reinforce its separate identity ahead of an election.

In other words, a straightforward comment from Bertie has, once again, sown confusion and worry in all parties. An accident? I doubt it.