Ahern is going, long live Ahern

Bertie Ahern has said the next general election will be his last. But be warned, the days of Ahern rule may not be finished when the Taoiseach hangs up his political boots. Another Ahern is quietly grooming himself for the big job and building a track record at home and abroad to enhance his leadership chances whenever the contest is called.

While Dermot Ahern's appointment as the man in Europe to help the UN Secretary General persuade the world's capitals to accept his package of reform for the UN is a great honour for the country, it is also a golden opportunity for the Louth man.

Not only will the position enable him to build a global network of contacts, hob-nob with world leaders and play a vital role in reshaping a stronger and more effective UN. It will also do his reputation and stature at home no harm at all. Bertie Ahern won kudos during Ireland's EU presidency when he pulled off a deal on the EU Constitution. Imagine what a similar triumph on the international stage could do for Dermot Ahern's political ambitions.

Ahern is one of four envoys charged with preparing the ground for the UN summit in September when key decisions on reforming the organisation will be made. Initially, some chuckled when they heard the politician (dubbed by Pat Rabbitte "The Dundalk boot-boy" for his Dáil heckling) had been picked for the task.

They chuckled because eight years ago when Ray Burke was first accused of accepting corrupt donations, Bertie Ahern's appointment of Dermot Ahern as his "eyes and ears" to check the veracity of the allegations resulted in the Louthman – at the end of the episode – looking foolish, naïve and like a patsy for the Taoiseach.

But all of that's history. Ireland and the party got over it, and Dermot Ahern's political star has been rising ever since. For a long time Brian Cowen and Micheál Martin were seen not only as the front-runners in a leadership battle to succeed Bertie Ahern, but as the only real runners. Increasingly, however, Dermot Ahern's name is surfacing as a possible contender.

"He's personable, able and presents well. His face would look well on a poster and he has few if any skeletons that people are aware of anyway," a Fianna Fáil backbencher told me recently.

Since 1997, Ahern has also notched up considerable cabinet experience. He's been Minister in three Departments: Social, Community and Family Affairs; Communications, Marine and Natural Resources; and since last September, Foreign Affairs.

When he was promoted to Foreign Affairs, he was regarded as well equipped for the Northern Ireland role. He had been a former co-chairman of the British-Irish Inter-Parliamentary Body and Charlie Haughey had involved him in the Peace Process from its inception in 1988.

Ahern got off to a wobbly start when he suggested that Sinn Féin would soon be involved in government in the Republic. His comments were taken as a signal that Fianna Fáil was opening the door to a coalition deal with Sinn Féin after the next election and were widely seen as a gaffe.

Then, when the Peace Process ran into trouble before Christmas and was subsequently put on ice following the Northern Bank Robbery and the McCartney murder, Michael McDowell stole all the best lines, upstaging both Aherns and emerging as the government's most coherent and impassioned voice on the subject.

The ubiquitous Justice Minister may have overshadowed Dermot Ahern on the North, but he could not eclipse him. Ahern's decision to fly out to South-East Asia following the tsunami on St Stephen's Day earned him serious brownie points with the public including the honour of being hailed "the Messiah" by Goal's John O'Shea on The Late Late Show.

Now, the United Nations job has handed Dermot Ahern another opportunity simultaneously to enhance his stature abroad and his leadership ambitions at home.

And make no mistake, say colleagues, Dermot Ahern is ambitious and fancies his chances at the top job. The Minister blitzes the parliamentary party almost on a daily basis with press releases about his various activities.

"If Dermot Ahern farts, we get a press release about it. It was the same when he was in Communications and Social Welfare. Everything Dermot Ahern does comes out to us," a Fianna Fáil backbencher says.

The scale and duration of the UN's problems may hobble his contribution to a solution. But if he's seen to have at least contributed competently, that will greatly improve his possibilities on the home front, if and when Bertie Ahern relinquishes his leadership.

Ursula Halligan is TV3's Political Editor and Presenter of The Political Party, Sundays at 5pm