Looking ahead

Cock-a-doodle-doo! Next year will either herald a new dawn for the opposition or see the government continuing to rule the roost. Either way, expect plenty of political crowing, not least because 2005 is the year of the Rooster in the Chinese calendar.

The big question is who will be cock-of-the-walk by the year's end. If 2004 was a critical year for all political parties because of the Local and European Elections, 2005 should in theory be a much quieter affair, a sort of "in-between" year.

All the signs however point to the contrary. Two by-elections will happen in the spring, and possibly a referendum on the new EU constitution later in the year. All three contests will be fiercely fought by the political parties and treated as dress rehearsals for the next general election.

In January, the new Health Services Executive comes into existence. A government decision on the future of Aer Lingus could be known by the end of the month. Environment Minister Dick Roche will have to get off the fence in relation to the planned routing of the M3 motorway through Ireland's oldest and most revered national monument, the Hill of Tara.

The new year will also see the enlarged EU, all 25 member-states, begin haggling over its budget for 2007 to 2013. Closer to home, the possibility of an historic peace deal on the North being hammered out should become more realistic once the British general election in May is out of the way.

Throw in the possibility of Ray Burke going to jail for tax evasion in January and Martin Cullen facing the prospect of two separate inquiries about the employment of Monica Leech as a communications consultant - and 2005 doesn't look at all dull.

Indeed, politically, the coming year may be as exciting as 2004 was, but for a different reason: it could be a pre-election year.

That's because although Bertie has said he will go full term and will not call a general election before June 2007, circumstances may yet tempt him to cut loose earlier.

Fine Gael's tail is up and the more time that party gets to grow support, the better for them. By choosing to go to the wire Bertie would only be giving a resurgent Fine Gael more time to consolidate its position, bed down new candidates and build up a war chest ahead of the election. It would allow Enda Kenny run a year-long campaign and to align Fine Gael with Labour in a way which doesn't threaten that element of Labour which sees more virtue in principled opposition than in participation in Government.

The new year will be vital for the continued promotion and cultivation of Kenny as a credible alternative leader in the public mind. Party colleagues reckon he's at fifty per cent on his upward curve and that there's more ahead of him than behind. They say he's getting more confident, secure and focused all the time.

2005 will be a critical year for all the opposition parties but most of all for Labour. Gone are the days when the media hailed the party leader as the "Real Leader of the Opposition". Rabbitte's star slipped in 2004 and he has much ground to make up in the new year. Healing tensions within his own party over his strategic plans for its future has to be a priority.

Tensions within the governing coalition could also deepen in 2005 as Fianna Fáil and the PDs inevitably seek to differentiate themselves ahead of the next election. Already, the two partners are on a collision course given that the PDs espouse public-sector reforms, while Fianna Fáil lurched to the left recently and capitulated to the trade unions on a number of issues, including Aer Lingus. With An Post hiccupping its way towards major industrial relatins problems, it will be interesting to see whether the pattern of Fianna Fáil on the trade union side, and the Progressive Democrats on the management/reform side emerges.

Barring unforeseen international catastrophes, the economy is predicted to grow more rapidly in 2005 than any other economy in Europe so if there's a banana skin out there for this government, it looks like it will be Health.

Both parties fear an electoral backlash whenever they next go to the polls if the health service is not seen to be delivering in a better fashion. While Mary Harney's move to Health was widely regarded as brave and courageous, it will not be enough to assuage a public that is increasingly impatient with long waiting lists and A&E chaos.

Tangible improvements must be made by the time she presents herself for re-election.

Ursula Halligan is TV3's Political Editor and Presenter of The Political Party on Sundays, 5pm, TV3.