Ursula Halligan: The china Syndrome

The Chinese are a superstitious people. Many of them consider the year they were born to be the key factor determining their fate, personality traits and prospects for a long, happy, prosperous life. In the Chinese calendar each year is named after one of 12 animals (rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, sheep, monkey, rooster, dog and pig) and some years are deemed luckier than others. If, for example, you're born in the year of the Dragon or the Horse, you're on the pig's back so to speak. But beware if you're born in the year of the Rooster or the Sheep.

"Baa baa humbug" you might say, but the Chinese take these things seriously. Take 2004, the Year of the Monkey. Because it's so coveted as a birth year in China it sparked a huge surge in births as well as a last minute panic by women in the late stages of pregnancy, eager to give birth before the Chinese New Year begins on 9th February. Many desperately want their babies to be born in the Year of the Monkey (2004) because they believe it's luckier than being born in the Year of the Rooster (2005).

Oddly enough, Bertie Ahern and the pregnant women of China share something in common. The Taoiseach also wants to give birth before the Year of the Monkey ends, but he's got a different kind of enterprise in mind. Later this month, and just days before the old Chinese year expires, he will lead Ireland's biggest ever trade mission to China and he'll be very pleased if some of the luck from the Year of the Monkey rubs off on the exercise. Bertie's baby is about nurturing a thriving, lucrative commercial relationship between Ireland and the world's fastest growing economy, because that's where the big bucks are.

China has a population of 1.3 billion, an economy that is growing year-on-year by more than 9%, and a rapidly growing trade surplus with the US. After centuries of being closed to the world, the last great Communist power has (partially) embraced the capitalist way and has thrown itself open for investment. If current trends continue, by 2020, China will have overtaken Japan as the World's second biggest economy.

To the developed world, China's extraordinary growth represents both a threat and an opportunity. Its low cost base threatens manufacturing jobs in the US and Europe but its huge population and labour reserves represent a honey-pot of profit for beady-eyed entrepreneurs. China is exciting the business world because it's a massive new market for foreign goods, services and skills and it offers access to valuable raw materials. Whether it's Britain, Ireland, France or the US, every self-respecting free-market economy wants a piece of the Chinese action and competition is fierce.

As one American entrepreneur recently remarked: "When a speeding freight train is heading towards you, you either get on board or you get out of the way. We want to get on board."

And the Irish do too. The whole point of the Government's trade mission is to raise awareness about Ireland at the highest levels in China and, in the process, to open doors and opportunities for business, education and trade.

So brace yourself for a massive exodus of government ministers and business people from these shores on the 17 January. Accompanying Bertie Ahern on the seven-day trip will be four cabinet ministers: Micheal Martin, Minister for Enterprise and Employment; Mary Hanafin, Minister for Education; Mary Coughlan, Minister for Agriculture and Noel Dempsey, Minister for Communications.

About 200 business people from over 100 companies, including multi-nationals based in Ireland and educational institutions, representing a cross section of Irish business and education interests, are also going on the trip. It's the third such mission from this country in five years. (Mary Harney led the first in 2000 and President Mary McAleese the second in 2003.)

With extraordinary prescience nearly two centuries ago, Napoleon once described China as a sleeping giant who, when awoken would astonish the world. Looks like China's alarm clock has gone off and the giant is out of bed having breakfast with her western neighbours.

Incidentally, Bertie Ahern was born in 1951, the Chinese Year of the Rabbit. Perhaps, despite all the Labour Party leader's protestations against going into coalition with Fianna Fáil, Pat Rabbitte's destiny is more entwined with Bertie Ahern than even he realises.

Ursula Halligan is TV3's Political Editor and Presenter ofThe Political Party, 5pm, Sundays (the show resumes on the 16 January, 2005)