Spectre of coalition hangs

They've ruled out coalition with Fianna Fáil, which means that they are in danger of being taken for granted as partners for Fine Gael and Labour. The Greens must now show some bottle on key issues, writes Eoin Ó Múrchú

The spectre of coalition is hanging over the Green Party as its delegates gather in Kilkenny this weekend for the party's annual convention. Naturally the convention agenda is dominated by issues of Green concern, like the environment, planning, waste management and the organisation of economic restructuring in the context of global climate change.

And the party will, like the bigger players, be anxious to milk the media for coverage that can appeal to its niche support, while not cutting across the prospects of government participation.

Officially, the Greens have not committed themselves to government. But in emphatically ruling out co-operation with a Fianna Fáil-led Government while being quite open about a Fine Gael-led alternative, the Greens, convention decision notwithstanding, have made their position as clear as Pat Rabbitte has made that of the Labour Party.

In this regard the Greens are making the same mistake as Labour: they are putting all their eggs in the Rainbow basket, irrespective of the ideological complexion that real choices of government might bring up.

In other words, instead of making clear certain basic fundamental principles of policy that must be achieved by the Greens for them to participate in any coalition, party personalities will decide the issue.

It is hard, of course, to see the Greens being compatible with Bertie Ahern as taoiseach. He has made no secret of his contempt for them, and is decidedly hostile to their stances on neutrality, peace, controlled development and environmental protection.

But are these absolutes? Within Fianna Fáil itself, there are many who share some if not all of these Green aspirations; and if the PD tail can so obviously wag the Fianna Fáil dog there is no objective reason why anyone else should not do so as well.

But instead of defining their must-be-included policy demands, the Greens have started the other way around by ruling out potential partners, as laid down in the Irish Times script.

There is definite unease in the Green ranks about this, and that is almost certainly why no commitment to coalition has been given. This does give the Greens a greater negotiating strength than Labour has earned through its supine pre-policy commitment to coalition with Fine Gael, but Fine Gael and Labour strategists frankly don't believe that the Greens will offer any serious problem when the deal comes to be made. They believe, rightly or wrongly, that a few choice phrases should suffice.

A more fundamental problem for the Rainbow is that even with the inclusion of the Greens, it is more and more looking as if the numbers still won't be sufficient. In a surfeit of optimism, the Sunday Independent suggested that Fianna Fáil would lose 19 seats on its 2002 total, but even then a viable Rainbow government would require a combination of Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens and the Progressive Democrat (PD) rump to ensure access to power.

It is in this light that we should judge the very restrained response to the McDowell-Bruton row over Garda numbers. Pat Rabbitte, with a generosity of spirit with which he is seldom associated, dismissed the idea that McDowell should resign over his intemperate attack on Bruton: a light apology would suffice.

Richard Bruton, himself, ever a gentleman, politely refrained from putting the boot into the bold Michael, and the only party that really seemed embarrassed by McDowell's outburst was Fianna Fáil.

Where, however, does this leave the Greens? McDowell's abusive and hectoring style is no problem, naturally, when he is excoriating Sinn Féin and the republican movement. But while he apologised comprehensively for his abuse of Richard Bruton, saying that he "knew and liked" the Fine Gael man, he withdrew without apology even more offensive remarks about John Gormley and the Green Party.

In case you've forgotten, McDowell said that the Orange March day rioters who attacked PD headquarters were "John Gormley's type of people." In fact Gormley is a very strong pacifist and was genuinely enraged by McDowell's comments and its suggestions that he and people like him engage in violence.

But while Rabbitte came strongly to the defence of Richard Bruton, poor John has been left by himself.

Is there a message here that the Greens don't matter and that they are being taken for granted in relation to government formation?

This is a very dangerous road. John Bruton's blunt disdain for Labour sensitivities was an important factor in bringing about the original Fianna Fáil-Labour Coalition in 1992, and Fine Gael have certainly learned the lesson of that since.

But, that said, they probably do have the measure of the Greens, for where can they go? They have ruled out Fianna Fáil, so government is a question of whether or not they can accept the Fine Geal-Labour policy parameters. PD insults to the Greens will not loom large on the negotiating agenda.

This is the context in which the Green delegates make their way to the marble city – to reaffirm their definition of themselves as a party, and, if they are realistic, to lay down some markers as to essential policies for their party.

To be taken seriously by the other participants, they need to show some bottle now on key issues and demand real respect from prospective coalition partners.