Sinn Féin's political tornado
The "Butterfly Effect" is a scientific idea that illustrates how small and apparently insignificant events in one part of the world can cause a tornado or an earthquake in another part, thousands of miles away.
It suggests that, in theory, the flutter of a butterfly's wings in China could, over time, affect weather patterns in New York City, and set in motion a chain of events with far reaching consequences.
It's a vivid image that transcends meteorology and begs to be applied to other areas. After all, if a butterfly could wreak havoc on the world's weather system, imagine what a criminal act could do to the global political climate. Sinn Féin knows all about it. This week they learned that a bank robbery in Belfast can cause a political tornado three thousand miles away in Washington DC.
They know too that it's one thing for a butterfly to flap its wings under the noses of Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair and quite another to try the same thing with George W. Bush. Pesky butterflies tend to get swatted in the post 9/11 world of George W.
By all accounts the leader of the free world doesn't much like butterflies or bank-robbers for that matter. US newspapers report that the Belfast heist is "personal" for President Bush because he made telephone calls before Christmas to both Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams in a last ditch attempt to rescue the faltering peace deal talks.
The New York Sun, in a recent editorial, observed that the Bush administration is understandably enraged: "while the Sinn Féin leader, Mr. Adams, was talking peace to the president, the organization with which he is inextricably linked and on whose board of management he sits was planning this massive heist. It is intolerable that the commander-in-chief of the world's only superpower should be humiliated in this way by a group of two-bit provincial hoods masquerading as freedom fighters".
"Provincial hoods masquerading as freedom fighters." It mightn't fit on a t-shirt, but sums up a radical shift in perception and, in politics and fundraising alike, perception is everything. The trailing clouds of sentimentality which have, for many Irish-Americans, obscured the worst of the IRA's atrocities down the years, are likely to dissipate as a result, not only of the Northern Ireland bank heist, but of American coverage of the bank heist.
President Bush – never a major beneficiary of Irish-American sentimentality – is unlikely to provide Sinn Féin with much support. All the signals coming from Washington last week point to an abandonment of the traditional St Patrick's Day hooley in the White House. It's the first sign that the political temperature is rising in the western world.
But politicians on both sides of the Atlantic don't want to overheat things either. They want to punish Sinn Féin in a way that shuts down any opportunity for that party to play the victim or the martyr card. As a result, the US government is reportedly considering canceling the St Patrick's Day bash for all the Northern parties, not just for Sinn Féin. Meanwhile, back home, the Irish and British governments are playing down talk about imposing sanctions on the party.
For the moment, it seems Sinn Féin is being left to stew in its own juices while the British, Irish and US governments keep a collective hand on the thermostat. The US government could, if it wished, turn up the heat at any time and make Sinn Féin sweat hard. It has the power to withdraw visas from party leaders and ban fund-raising in the States. Global warming has come early for Sinn Féin.
Intriguingly, American thinking from an earlier era may also be influencing Bertie Ahern's handling of the crises. Last week, Senator Martin Mansergh, a former special advisor to three Taoisigh on Northern Ireland, observed that the Taoiseach appeared to be following the advice of another US President, Theodore Roosevelt: "Speak softly and carry a big stick."
We've already heard the Taoiseach speak softly and with great effect when he excoriated Sinn Féin for alleged dupli-city in a bravura performance in the Dáil. If there is a big stick in his cupboard, it's probably the government's power to frustrate Sinn Féin's electoral ambitions on both sides of the border by refusing to play ball with them until that party confronts its internal demons.
Ursula Halligan is TV3's Political Editor and presenter of The Political Party, TV3, 5pm, Sun