The Pope: no longer governor

'Less is more' will be John Paul II's motto this year. John L. Allen looks at the key issues facing the Vatican as the Pope becomes increasingly an icon, and not a governor, of the Catholic Church

The year 2005, if all goes according to plan, will mark Pope John Paul II's 84th birthday in May, and the 27th anniversary of his election to the Throne of Peter in October. The papacy's unofficial motto over these 12 months is likely to be, "less is more".

Given the impact of age and illness, John Paul's identity as the Vicar of Christ has taken a new form. Functionally speaking, the Pope is no longer the governor of the Catholic Church as described in the Code of Canon Law; the man who dispenses "supreme, full, immediate and universal" authority over Roman Catholicism's 1.1 billion adherents. Increasingly, on anything other than big-picture matters, that authority is wielded by lieutenants.

John Paul has instead become an icon of the suffering of Christ, a witness to the dignity and value of all human life from conception to natural death, no matter what a person can "do".

What John Paul "does" in 2005, from a quantitative point of view, is likely to reach a low-water mark. He will travel less, stage fewer events in St. Peter's Square, and, when he appears in public, he will say less.

This was evident over Christmas when the Pope's public addresses were shorter than normal, though he did deliver them himself. These days, John Paul no longer "celebrates" mass but "presides," which means that someone else does most of the ritual action.

From the point of view of his critics, all this is proof that the Emperor has no clothes – if the Catholic Church were a corporation, the board of directors would demand John Paul's resignation.

The Pope's fans respond that this is precisely the point – the Catholic Church is not Wal-Mart – and that John Paul is a father and a pastor, spending himself to the end. Nevertheless, time and the tides stop for no man. The challenges facing the Catholic Church will not take a breather in light of the Pope's struggles, and hence there will be business to do in 2005. Look for the following five stories to loom large.

The one fixed point of John Paul's schedule for 2005 is 20-21 August, when the Pope will be in Cologne, Germany, for the climax of World Youth Day. It will be another mega-event, with as many as two million young people at what has come to be known as the "Catholic Woodstock".

The Pope, who invented World Youth Day and who always draws strength from it, will move heaven and earth to be present.

It will be especially interesting to see how this plays out in Germany, long the mothership of Catholic dissent.

Beyond Cologne, three other potential trips are under examination. John Paul seems likely to visit Poland, for what will be the ninth trip home of his pontificate (and, quite probably, the sixth or seventh time that reporters will write wistfully of the Pope's "farewell" trip).

There is also talk of a trip to Istanbul and the headquarters of the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, Bartholomew I. The Phanar, which is Constantinople's equivalent of the Vatican, has been pressing hard for a papal appearance, in part to reciprocate Bartholomew's visits to Rome, in part to beef up Bartholomew's standing in both the Orthodox world and with Turkish authorities.

Finally, there remains the possibility of a papal trip to Ireland. John Paul has not been to Ireland since 1979, and on that occasion was not able to visit the Primatial See in Armagh because of sectarian violence.

While Vatican officials say they have to evaluate the Pope's capacity for travel later in the year, the idea of an Irish swing remains a "live possibility".

There has been no higher priority for John Paul II in recent years than the effort to heal the millennium-old gap between divided Eastern and Western Christianity.

The Pope sees better relations with the Eastern Orthodox churches as an antidote to secularism and religious indifference in the West.

His dream is that religiously-dynamic Eastern European countries will bring their experience into the new European Union, thus catalysing a Christian renaissance.

The central problem is that the Orthodox don't seem interested.

When John Paul recently sent a venerated Russian Orthodox icon of Our Lady of Kazan back to Moscow, for example, the reaction from the Russians was decidedly frosty.

One flash point in 2005 will be Ukraine.

The 5.5 million-strong Greek Catholic Church, which follows Eastern customs but is loyal to Rome, was a key player in the political success of Viktor Yushchenko, and is now flexing its muscles.

The Greek Catholics want John Paul to recognise their leader, Cardinal Lubomyr Husar, as a "patriarch," a move that would inflame Russian Orthodox sentiment.

The Pope in 2005 will find himself between the rock of Russian opposition, and the hard place of Ukrainian nationalism.

The Israeli/Palestinian problem has long been the Vatican's top diplomatic priority, and not just because it is "the mother of all conflicts" in the Middle East.

The Vatican fears that someday the land of Christ's birth will be empty of Christians; already there are more Palestinian Christians in Australia than in Palestine.

With the death of Yassar Arafat and the election of a new Palestinian regime, the Vatican, in tandem with the rest of the global community, is likely to press hard for a solution.

The Holy See does have one card to play. It has been involved for years in negotiations with the Israeli government to implement the 1993 "fundamental accord" between Israel and the Holy See, and Israel's failure to negotiate in good faith has become an embarrassment.

The Vatican could make one headache disappear for the Israelis in exchange for movement towards a peace deal.

Depending on how the politics shake out, 2005 may be the year when the long-awaited Vatican document on the admission of homosexuals to Catholic seminaries appears. It will take a dim view of admitting gays; the key question is, will the document define a "homosexual"?

That is, will it ban anyone who has experienced a same-sex attraction, will it lean more towards someone who is part of the "homosexual lifestyle" – or, as seems probable, will it leave that decision in the hands of bishops and seminary rectors, thus potentially changing very little?

On the sexual abuse front, rules for handling accusations against priests in the United States, known as the "one-strike" policy, expire in March 2005.

Negotiations are underway between the American bishops and the Vatican, where there are serious reservations about what is seen as the "draconian" character of the policy. Whatever decision results will have to be approved by the Pope, and will set a precedent for the rest of the world.

As John Paul retreats from day-to-day governance, an increasing number of senior officials, both in the Vatican and the College of Cardinals, worry about incoherence in Church policy.

No one is going to ask John Paul to step aside, and not just out of fear or deference; most senior churchmen believe that the witness he is offering is precious.

Yet there is talk about asking the Pope to approve a mechanism that would permit greater cohesion, whether that would be empanelling a body of cardinals to advise him, or at least appointing a stronger Secretary of State.

The question is: how will John Paul react?

One place where tensions may come to a head is the Synod of Bishops scheduled for October 2005.

The theme is the "Eucharist," but the bishops may use the opportunity to talk about the practical challenges created by a papacy whose contribution is today more symbolic and spiritual than managerial.p

JOHN L. ALLEN JR

John L. Allen Jr is the Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter and author of All the Pope's Men: The Inside Story of How the Vatican Really Thinks (Doubleday, 2004).