Politico calls the election!

Malachy Browne's internal tipping machine has come out with the composition of the 31st Dail at: Fine Gael 79 seats, Labour 31, Independents 21, Fianna Fail 22, Sinn Fein 12, and one lonely Green - Eamon Ryan in Dublin South. 

And so Election Day has arrived. Some two million people will cast their vote today, and if polls are right, 800,000 of us will choose a Fine Gael candidate over any other. Below, an overview of the campaign, and Politico's predictions. Argument is welcome!

While the political, social and economic landscape is unparalleled, the election campaign itself was bland and uneventful, a return to the old-school politicking. One almost wishes Brian Cowen was still at the helm. Almost.

With a calendar of photo-ops, leaders priming the parish-pumps with hand-shakes, pats on the back and pet fondling, this campaign resembled any other of the past decade. The leaders' debates did take on new formats, but the formats proved utterly unfit for the importance of this election. The same broad issues were repeatedly addressed in brief and bland generalities and vague assurances. There were no 'knockout' blows, and arguably they revealed only what we already knew – one leader playing for keeps (Enda Kenny), another with nothing to lose (Micheal Martin), and a third (Eamon Gilmore) whose indecisive political tactics would vacillate through the course of the campaign, ultimately to a point of damage limitation.

Perversely, the two party leaders who received the least attention has arguably the most dramatic proposals. John Gormley may have restored some standing for Green Party candidates by genuinely attempting to put national interest above party politics in calling for unity across the Dail on the jobs issue. Gerry Adams gave considered proposals, but the mainstream media and a large proportion of the electorate are dismissive of Sinn Fein as left wing dilettantes. (The dilettante bit could be justified in Adams' case after his floundering radio performance at the start of the campaign, though he performed strongly in the five-way leaders debate).

A series of focussed debates between sectoral spokespeople on the substantive issues would have served the electorate much better: one on the many good ideas for job creation; a single debate on the EU-IMF bailout and banking versus sovereign debt; one debate on the major and lasting health reform Fine Gael plans to institute; a single discussion on education – the problem with worsening student-teacher ratios, infrastructure, and facilitating those children in greatest need of assistance, and the perpetuation of unfair advantage through funding private schools with €100m, and third level funding; another on housing to address the concerns of over 250,000 people who are without a secure home in Ireland and those who can no longer afford the homes they live in; political 'reform', which Suzy Byrne correctly referred to as "the most abused term of the election".

Notably absent in Election 2011 was any considered debate on social protection. It was entirely dismissed by the mainstream media as 'tinkering around the edges' of the bailout dilemma. The wide range of issues faced by a large proportion of the population was cobbled together into one brief question on social welfare near the end of the final leaders' debate on RTE. Eamon Gilmore was the only party leader to memorably promise policy underscored by fairness.

The supplementary register of 50,000 pushes the number of people already registered to vote (3.16 million) to over 3.2 million people, we are told. Those over the age of 18 in Ireland number only 3 million, many of whom are not registered to vote or are disenfranchised by their residency status, but anyway.

If two and a quarter million people vote, it will be a noteworthy turnout. This accounts for around 70% of the reported electorate and would be the highest turnout since the 1980s (72-73% in 1982/3 and 1987) when Ireland was also in crisis. The 2007 General Election saw a turnout of 67%; given the engagement of people in national issues this time around (as with the 1980s) and given the depth of feeling against the incumbent administration, 70% is not unrealistic.

An opinion poll this week shows Fine Gael on an upward trend with a 40% approval rating. Should this translate to votes, this will be an unprecedented share of the vote for Fine Gael: it won 39.2% of votes in the November 1982 election, and 39% of votes in 1923.

The standard calculations are scrapped this time around. First preference vote will primarily determine the outcome, and it is fair to say that Fianna Fail will see a huge decline here. Fianna Fail candidates topped the poll in 36 of the 43 constituencies in 2007. As calculated by Dr Adrian Kavanagh of NUIM, 11 of these are not contesting this election, leaving "25 Fianna Fail poll-toppers from 2007... in addition to the five Fine Gael, one Labour and one Independent poll toppers".

Transfers too are unpredictable this time around. Previously, an ample Fianna Fail vote was distributed elsewhere, but today many Fianna Fail candidates will rely on transfers to carry them over the quota. Additionally, whereas the Independent grouping heretofore typically consisted of left-leaning candidates, many centre-right candidates are standing in 2011 (for instance, Paul Sommerville who Fine Gael has backed as a de-facto second choice candidate in Dublin South East).

So, caveats stated, here is Politico's prediction for Election 2011! Below also is a Google spreadsheet we compiled with stats on each constituency (and former constituencies). Here too is a link to profiles of all constituencies in Election 2011.

***

Carlow-Kilkenny (5 seats)

For an overall majority, Fine Gael must win three seats here, and are likely to do so. John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward were elected on the first count here in 2007 with over 11,000 votes each. This time, they will each win much fewer votes, perhaps half, and will rely on transfers from the other to carry.

Phil Hogan who is managing Fine Gael's campaign will be elected in the first count with a strong polling. In 2007 half of Fine Gael transfers went to other party candidates and in this count transfers will carry John Paul Phelan (who won 6,494 first preferences in 2007) and Cllr. Patrick Deering. The Green Party's Mary White will poll reasonably well, but will struggle to secure transfers. Neither of Labour's candidates - Cllr. Ann Phelan and Cllr. Des Hurley – ran in 2007. Opinion polls suggest that Labour will secure a seat here.

FG: 3; Phil Hogan TD, Sen. John Paul Phelan, Cllr. Patrick Deering

Labour: 1; (Cllr. Ann Phelan or Cllr. Des Hurley)

Fianna Fail: 1; John McGuinness TD

***

Cavan-Monaghan (5 seats)

Rory O'Hanlon was re-elected unopposed in 2007. Retiring his seat, this now becomes a five seater.

Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin TD will be comfortably re-elected for Sinn Fein as will Brendan Smith TD for Fianna Fail. Again, Fine Gael must win three seats here for an overall majority. Two are certain; the third will be a battle for transfers with Sinn Fein's Kathryn Reilly. Some Fine Gael transfers could go to John McGurk; Labour transfers to both Fine Gael and Sinn Fein.

Fine Gael: 3

Fianna Fail: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

***

Clare (4 seats)

Former Minister and Fianna Fail's 2011 campaign manager Tony Killeen has retired politics. The former Fianna Fail candidate James Breen is running as an Independent this time and will reduce Fianna Fail to one seat in outgoing TD Timmy Dooley. Outgoing TDs Pat Breen and Joe Carey will be comfortably re-elected for Fine Gael.

Fine Gael: 2

Fianna Fail: 1

Independent: 1

***

Cork East (4 seats)

Fianna Fail will lose two seats in Cork East. Ned O'Keefe has retired. Micheal Ahern will struggle for the final seat. Sean Sherlock will be re-elected for Labour. As will outgoing TD David Stanton for Fine Gael. Labour's Cllr. John Mulvihill will be carried by transfers and one of Tom Barry or Pa O'Driscoll for Fine Gael.

Fine Gael: 2

Labour: 2

***

Cork North-Central (4 seats)

An Ipsos/MRBI poll put Labour's Kathleen Barry at 18% here during the campaign and she will be elected. Although comfortably elected in the first round with 1.12 of the quota in 2007, Fianna Fail's prominent Minister for State Billy Kelleher could struggle today. He polled just 13 per cent in the Ipsos/MRBI poll.

With Bernard Allen retiring, Fine Gael's Dara Murphy and Pat Burton will poll well. There is doubt that Fine Gael can return two candidates but judging by national polls they should do in this four seater. The final seat is between Billy Kelleher, Sinn Fein's Jonathan O'Brien and Socialist Party candidate Mick Barry. With the same approval as Kelleher, the transfer-friendly Barry could clip it.

Fine Gael:2

Labour: 1

Independent: 1 (Mick Barry)

***

Cork North-West (3 seats)

Fianna Fail backbencher Michael Moynihan polled 2,100 more first preference votes than outgoing Batt O'Keefe in 2007 and will poll strongly again this time out. Fine Gael's Michael Creed TD and Cllr. Derry Canty will also be returned in subsequent counts.

Fine Gael: 2

Fianna Fail: 1

***

Cork South-Central (5 seats)

Despite courting national broadcast media, Fianna Fail's outgoing TD Michael McGrath is unlikely to be re-elected in this constituency. Party leader Micheal Martin will hold his seat. Fine Gael is running three strong candidates in outgoing TDs Deirdre Clune and Simon Coveney and Senator Jerry Buttimer . The outgoing TDs who likey be comfortably elected. Labour TD Ciaran Lynch should poll well for labour and be carried by transfers from running mate Cllr. Paula Desmond and Sinn Fein's Cllr. Chris O'Leary. Senator Dan Boyle is a prominent Green Party member but polled terribly at 2 per cent in an Ipsos/MRBhttp://www.politico.ie/administrator/index.php?option=com_content§ionid=40&task=edit&cid[]=7333I constituency poll. Buttimer will likely be carried on transfers from his two running mates, though Chris O'Leary of Sinn Fein could pose a challenge on transfers from Independents. Fine Gael must win three here for an overall majority.

Fine Gael: 3

Fianna Fail: 1

Labour: 1

***

Cork South-West (3 seats)

Fine Gael will return outgoing TD Christy O'Sullivan and outgoing Senator Dennis O'Donovan. The final seat is between Labour Senator Michael McCarthy and Fianna Fail TD Christy O'Sullivan.

FG: 2

FF: 1

***

Donegal North-East (3 seats)

Cllr. Pádraig Mac Lochlainn of Sinn Fein will be returned here and the national polls suggest that outgoing TD for Fine Gael Joe McHugh and Fianna Fail's sole candidate Cllr. Charlie McConalogue will be returned.

Fine Gael: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

Fianna Fail: 1

***

Donegal South-West (3 seats)

Former Senator and outgoing TD for Sinn Fein Pearse Doherty is guaranteed a seat here having polled an overwhelming success in the December 2010 by-election. The second seat is guaranteed for Fine Gael TD Dinny McGinley. The final seat is between Tainiste Mary Coughlan and Independent Thomas Pringle. High unemployment (of approx 20%) is a big issue in Donegal and Coughlan had an approval rating in December of only 10% in this constituency. But her family ties run deep and there is a loyal vote. Pringle is seen as an alternative and has strong support in the Killybegs region. Transfers from other Independents, Pearse Doherty and Labour's Frank McBrearty could swing it for Pringle.

Fine Gael: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

Independent: 1

***

 

Dublin Central (4 seats)
This will be a closely fought constituency and is difficult to call. Fine Gael Senator Paschal Donoghue lost in the eighth count to Fianna Fail's Cyprian Brady in 2007, when Brady had 939 first preference votes but was carried by Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's huge surplus. Donoghue polled 3,302 first preferences but this wasn't enough as transfers were poor. This could be a problem for him again.

Joe Costello of Labour and Independent TD Maureen O'Sullivan will poll well. Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein (who was surprised to lose here in 2007) will likely poll well with transfers from left-leaning Independents and the Labour vote. The final seat is between Donoghue and Brady or Mary Fitzpatrick.

Fine Gael: 1

Labour: 1

Independent: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

***

Dublin Mid-West (4 seats)

Fine Gael Senator Frances Fitzgerald will win a seat here and carry running mate Cllr. Derek Keating. Joanna Tuffy will poll well for Labour. The final seat is a battle of the left. Cllr. Gino Kenny of the People Before Profit Alliance (ULA) will poll well and transfers will determine if it is Gino or Eoin O Broin for Sinn Fein who will be elected deep into the counts. Having shifted home address and constituency from Dun Laoighre, Eoin O Broin has been doing light canvassing in the area since September 2010 with a strategy to building a base ahead of the general election that will follow this one. There's a chance of coming in early.

Fine Gael: 2

Labour: 1

Independent: 1

***

Dublin North (4 seats)

Fine Gael need two seats here for a majority but could be in trouble. Just as Willie O'Dea did in Limerick (2007) and Bertie Ahern did in Dublin Central (always), James Reilly is mismanaging his campaign to ensure that he is elected. It was not until the tenth count in 2007 that the prominent Fine Gael Health spokesperson was elected. This strategy will damage running mate Cllr. Alan Farrell's chances of election.

Socialist party Cllr. Clare Daly (ULA) polled 4,872 (9%) of first preferences in 2007 and is in a good position to win a seat. She campaigned strongly against bin charges and in favour of airline workers. Trevor Sargent is one of two Green Party members who have an outside chance of a seat. Labour Senator Brendan Ryan will be elected as will outgoing Fianna Fail TD Michael Kennedy who was outspoken against Brian Cowen's unpopular leadership of Fianna Fail.

Fine Gael: 1

Labour: 1

Fianna Fail: 1

Independent: 1

***

Dublin North-Central (3 seats)

Fine Gael's Richard Bruton strong polling here will bring in running mate Cllr. Naoise Ó Muirí. Independent TD Finian McGrath will likely win the third seat, though Labour's Cllr. Aodhan O'Riordan may threaten. Outgoing TD Sean Haughey will lose his seat.

Fine Gael: 2

Independent: 1

Fianna Fail: 0

***

Dublin North-East (3 seats)

Fine Gael 's sole candidate, TD Terence Flanagan will be comfortably elected here. Labour TD Tommy Broughan will be re-elected also. Both polled well in 2007 and should improve their position this time out. First time candidate for Fianna Fail Averil Power is unlikely to be brought in on transfers. Sinn Fein Cllr. Larry O'Toole will likely be carried on transfers.

Fine Gael: 1

Labour: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

***

Dublin North-West (3 Seats)

Labour's outgoing TD Rosin Shorthall is a shoe-in. Fianna Fail's outgoing TD Pat Carey will likely be re-elected. The third seat is between popular Sinn Fein Cllr. Dessie Ellis and Fine Gael's Cllr. Bill Tormey, whose position is doubtful. Fine Gael need a seat here.

Sinn Fein: 1

Fianna Fail: 1

Labour: 1

***

Dublin South (5 seats)

Labour Senator Alex White is almost assured a seat here having lost out to Fine Gael's (and RTE's) George Lee in the 2009 by-election to replace deceased Fianna Fail TD Seamus Brennan.

Fine Gael frontbench TDs Olivia Mitchell and Alan Shatter will be comfortably elected between them. Things could be tricky for their running mate, banking consultant Peter Matthews. Despite his high media profile, transfers are more likely to shift toward Independent Senator Shane Ross who broke the FAS expenses and overspending scandal with journalist Nick Webb and who has a better public profile. Ross previously ran for Fine Gael. '

Fianna Fail Senator Maria Corrigan will struggle and Green (former Minister) Eamon Ryan has a chance.

Labour: 1

Fine Gael: 2

Independent: 1

Green Party: 1

***

Dublin South-Central (5 Seats)

The most left-leaning constituency in the capital.

Sinn Fein's Aengus Ó Snodaigh will be re-elected, as will Fine Gael TD Catherine Byrne. Byrne will likely carry running mate Cllr. Colm Brophy. Cllr. Eric Byrne has a good chance of being elected for Labour with transfers from running mates Cllr. Michael Conaghan and Cllr. Henry Upton who replaces former TD Mary Upton. Transfers could bring in People Before Profit Cllr. Joan Collins who is well known in the constituency for her work and her independent stance in Dublin City Council. Joan Collins is also affiliated with the CWU.

Fine Gael: 2

Labour: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

Independent: 1

***

Dublin South-East (4 Seats)

Down one seat on 2007, this is an extremely tight constituency. Green Party leader John Gormley is unlikely to be re-elected. Lucinda Creighton will get in for Fine Gael and running mate Eoghan Murphy has run a strong campaign with a prominent office in Ranelagh village. Labour's Ruairi Quinn will be re-elected also. The fourth seat is between Fianna Fail's Chris Andrews and Labour's other candidate Cllr. Kevin Humphries who is more transfer –friendly.

Fine Gael: 2

Labour: 2

***

Dublin South-West (4 seats)

The final seat here will be between Sinn Fein's Sean Crowe and Fianna Fail's Conor Lenihan.

Fine Gael: 2

Brian Hayes (FG)

Cait Keane (FG)

Labour: 1 Pat Rabbitte

Sinn Fein: 1 Sean Crowe

***

Dublin West (4 seats)

Joe Higgins has a strong base and will be elected. Similarly, Joan Burton for Labour. If Leo Varadkar polls strongly enough, he could bring running mate Cllr. Kieran Dennison in ahead of Brian Lenihan.

Independent: 1

Labour: 1

Fine Gael: 2

***

Dun Laoghaire(4 seats)

Barry Andrews had much stronger re-election prospects were he to change constituency to Dublin South as offered. He will struggle in a big way to be re-elected, especially considering his mismanagement of his brief on Children. Mary Hanafin too could struggle following poor media performances in election week.

Fine Gael's Sean Barrett polled strongly in a constituency poll and will be elected first count. Senator Ivana Bacik was not being well-received early in the campaign and thought by campaigners not to be connecting with the electorate. But she will likely be brought in on transfers from Eamon Gilmore and Richard Boyd Barrett who is going backward in the poll. Boyd Barrett narrowly lost to Green Party Ciaran Cuffe in 2007 on the tenth count. Cuffe has no chance of re-election. Boyd Barrett ran a strong campaign on local representation in 2007, but may be seen in the constituency to have become a protest politician during the recent economic upheaval. This leaves Fine Gael's Mary Mitchell O'Connor versus Mary Hanafin on transfers. Unlikely that ULA transfers will go to Fianna Fail. Interesting one to watch.

Labour: 2

Fine Gael: 2

***

Galway East (4 seats)

Fine Gael: 2

Fianna Fail: 1

Independent: 1

***

Galway West (5 seats)

Labour: 1

Fine Gael: 2

Fianna Fail: 1

Independent: 1

Noel Grealish TD

Eamonn O'Cuiv TD

Sen. Fidelma Healy-Eames,

Cllr. Brian Walsh

Cllr. Derek Nolan

***

Kerry South (3 seats)

Fine Gael could win two with outgoing TD Tom Sheahan and Cllr. Brendan Griffin. Fianna Fail's John O'Donoghue will struggle leaving it open to Labour's Marie Maloney or Independents Michael Healy-Rae or Cllr. Tom Fleming.

Fine Gael: 2

Independents: 1

***

Kerry North-West Lim (3 seats)

A redrawn constituency. Jimmy Deenihan and Martin Ferris are frontrunners. First time candidate for Labour and nephew of former party leader Dick Spring, Arthur Spring is in with a good chance and has prepared well in advance having been nominated well in advance of the election.

Fine Gael: 1

Sinn Fein: 1

Labour: 1

***

Kildare North (4 seats)

Labour's Emmett Stagg will be re-elected as will Independent Catherine Murphy who previously ran for Democratic Left and Labour. Fianna Fail's Aine Brady reportedly stopped a concerted canvass during the campaign. Fine Gael's Bernard Durkan TD will carry Cllr. Anthony Lawlor.

Fine Gael: 2

Labour: 1

Ind: 1

***

Kildare South (3 seats)

Fine Gael can win one only seat here through sole candidate Cllr. Martin Heydon. Labour TD Jack Wall will poll well as will Independent Cllr Paddy Kennedy who could put out Fianna Fail's Sean O'Fearghaill.

Fine Gael: 1

Labour: 1

FF: 1

***

Laois-Offaly (5 seats)

Perhaps Fianna Fail's strongest constituency and the only one where they may win 2 seats in outgoing John Moloney and Cllr. Sean Fleming. Cllr. Brian Stanley will poll well for Sinn Fein.

FF: 1

FG: 2

SF: 1

Ind: 1

***

Limerick City (4 seats)

Ironically, Sinn Fein's Maurice Quinlivan will lose out here due to Micheal Martin's decision to promote Willie O'Dea.

Labour: 1 - Jan O'Sullivan TD

FF: 1 - Willie O'Dea TD

FG: 2 - Michael Noonan & Kieran O'Donnell

***

Limerick (3 seats)

The extension of the boundary eastward suits Fianna Fail candidate Niall Collins (related to former TD's Gerry Collins and Michael Collins). John Cregan chose not to run having been elected in the last two outings. Fine Gael's Dan Neville campaigns on mental health issues and is well-liked here. With four Independents among 11 candidates and, the final seat will probably go to Fine Gael's capable Councillor Patrick O'Donovan based in Newcastle West and who will be carried with Neville's surplus.

FG: 2

FF: 1

***

Longford-Westmeath (4 seats)

Fine Gael will win two here in outgoing TD James Bannon and Senator Nicky McFadden. Willie Penrose's surplus could carry Cllr. Mae Sexton for Labour over Fianna Fail's Mary O'Rourke.

FG: 2

Lab: 1

FF: 1

***

Louth (5 seats)

This is the constituency of the current Ceann Comhairle, Seamus Kirk of Fianna Fail, who is returned automatically. Fine Gael may have seen off another Fianna Fail seat here if they had run three candidates instead of two. Gerry Adams could indeed take the third seat despite negative campaigning against him, not by another party, but by the McConville family who accuse him of ordering the murder of Jean McConville.

FG: 2

FF: 2

SF: 1

***

Mayo (5 seats)

Fine Gael's strongest constituency. Possibility of four seats if Cllr. Michelle Mulherin can hold off the challenge of Indpendent Cllr Kilcoyne. Enda Kenny, Michael Ring, John O'Mahony will be returned. Labour's Jerry Cowley will also win a seat.

FG: 4

Lab: 1

***

Meath East (3 seats)

Having lost out in 2007, Senator Dominic Hannigan is in with a chance this time around. He did lots of local work prior to 2007 that will stand him in good stead. Cllr. Joe Bonner may pip Fianna Fail's Thomas Byrne for the third seat.

FG: 1 Outgoing TD Shane McEntee

Lab: 1

Fianna Fail: 1

***

Meath West (3 seats)

Damien English will be re-elected for Fine Gael and may carry running mate Cllr. Catherine Yore. The third seat is between Sinn Fein Cllr Peadar Toibin and sitting TD Johnny Brady for Fianna Fail.

FG: 2

Ind: 1

***

Roscommon-S Leit (3 seats)

New Vision candidate Luke Ming Flanagan who previously ran on a legalise cannabis platform has a good chance here. Frank Feighan and Dennis Naughten will be carried for Fine Gael.

FG:2

Ind: 1

***

Sligo-North Leitrim (3 seats)

John Perry could carry Cllr. Tony McLaughlin for Fine Gael if Susan O'Keeffe has a poor day. Final seat between Sinn Fein Cllr. Michael Colreavy and Fianna Fail's Eamonn Scanlon or Senator Marc McSharry.

FG: 1

Lab: 1

FF: 1

***

Tipperary North (3 seats)

Maire Hoctor will lose out here.

Labour: Alan Kelly

Fine Gael: Noel Coonan

Ind: Michael Lowry

***

Tipperary South (3 seats)

Like Lowry in the North, Mattie McGrath is adored in the South, despite running on the Fianna Fail ticket in 2007. Unless Green Party and Sinn Fein transfers are enough to bring Labour's Phil Prendergast above McGrath he will be elected. A constituency poll showed Tom Hayes and Seamus Healy as clear frontrunners

Ind: 2

FG: 1

***

Waterford (4 seats)

Outgoing John Deasy and Senator Paudie Coffey will poll well here. Fianna Fail's Brendan Kenneally will retain his seat. The final seat is between Labour or Sinn Fein's Cllr. David Cullinane (at the expense of Labour)

FG: 2

FF: 1

SF: 1

***

Wexford (5 seats)

The former developer Mick Wallace is running a strong campaign here under the former Personal Assistant to One in Four founder Colm O'Gorman. Fine Gael will poll well and secure two seats, as will either Sean Connick or John Browne for Fianna Fail and Brendan Howlin for Labour. The final seat is between Senator Liam Twomey for a third Fine Gael seat and Mick Wallace.

FG: 2

FF: 1

Lab: 1

Ind: 1

***

Wicklow (5 seats)

With 22 candidates this is a huge constituency and the quota will be low. Dick Roche's seat in danger.

Fine Gael: 3 - Billy Timmins & Andrew Doyle and Cllr. Simon Harris

Labour: - Anne Ferris

Ind: - Joe Behan