PDs' message: more tax cuts, privatisation

Notwithstanding widespread public concern about health and crime, the two ministries that are their responsibility, the Progressive Democrats (PDs) are going in to this weekend's party conference in Limerick full of confidence and determined to spell out their re-election message in unambiguous terms.

Bertie Ahern may believe that we have reached the limit of feasible tax cuts for the moment, but party leader Mary Harney will proclaim yet again the party's fundamental belief in cutting taxes, and promise more of the same after the next election if the PDs are returned to Government, with whatever partners.

She also intends to make it clear that a commitment to this strategy – at least in broad terms – is a sine qua non for PD participation in government, and she firmly believes it is a winning formula.

Her argument is simple: tax cuts, she believes, created the incentive to stimulate economic activity and gave us the present boom, and growth rates consistently better than those of our neighbouring economies; further tax cuts will provide more incentive for further stimulation to carry us through downturns elsewhere. With increasing prosperity, she believes that the existing crises in health and education can be overcome – at least for those who have the money to buy the service they need.

The PDs have always been an ideological party, and they remain so. They are a party, too, which understands its strengths and its weaknesses: it will not be a mass party, but if it can maintain the crucial weight which puts it into government, the PDs believe they can continue to swing the direction of government policy as they would like it to be – even if the election requires them to share power with Labour.

One party strategist explained to me that this was because the party knows exactly what it wants, is not hung up on symbolism and will happily yield the rhetorical ground of government presentation for the core reality of deciding crucial policy.

In this regard, the argument is that the only issue which the PDs have to make sure they deliver on is health, and while the problems of health are manifest the party believes it is getting to grips with the underlying structural context of the problems and that success will be more and more apparent from the end of the year as we go into the election period next Spring.

Crime, I was told, is an issue that the opposition makes a lot of froth about, but the PDs are confident that Michael McDowell enjoys the absolute confidence of those who consider law and order to be vital questions.

The same source was also confident that McDowell's strong line against Sinn Féin resonates with Fine Gael voters especially, and that when push comes to shove those voters will be happier with McDowell's firm clarity than with Fine Gael's bleatings on the margins.

Fine Gael, of course, scorn this view. They believe that crime is the weak point for the PDs because, they argue, McDowell has failed to deliver.

This then provides the context for the threefold message of this weekend: a confident and indeed strident assertion of core PD values on the economy, calling for more Boston and less Berlin; an attempt to convince the middle classes that the party is going the right way to solve the health crisis; and an all-out attack on what the PDs call the wishy-washy alternatives to their strategy on crime.

They will be no apologetics, no "not sure" comments, but still room for some liberalism and even some nationalism – just to cover the party's flanks.

So in addition to the main themes, the conference will also discuss transport – and press for more and quicker privatisation; environment – and call for tougher enforcement of existing protection legislation; the Irish language – where it will present a positive approach, with unionist Chris McGimpsey as an invited speaker to emphasise the need to keep Irish away from the dreaded Shinners (who actually speak it); as well as trade unionism and immigration.

But it is the briefing on a new tax policy that will throw down the gauntlet to the other parties, not merely by promising not to raise taxes but by promising to lower them. The PDs believe that this will particularly put Fine Gael on the spot, who will be forced to respond in similar fashion, thereby increasing the difficulties facing Labour.

From the resultant confusion, they hope to convince voters that, whatever misgivings they have about the state of the nation's affairs, keeping the existing coalition is the best option.

Only those who challenge them ideologically, like Sinn Féin and the Greens, will look coherent, they believe; but they also believe that these parties can be easily marginalised and demonised.

That's the script. We'll just have to see if the voters can read it.

Eoin Ó Murchú is the Eagraí Polaitíochta of RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta. He is writing here in a personal capacity.