Morning Blog - 03 December 2010
Criticism, analysis, response: The BudgetJam liveblog. Email your comments here or comment below.
11.12 PK listener 'The IMF are our social partners now'. Thanks to Donogh for this heads up.
The Unite Pre-Budget submission is out. Michael Taft has a short post on it.http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2010/12/the-peoples-budget.html
Document is here: http://notesonthefront.typepad.com/politicaleconomy/2010/12/the-peoples-budget.html
Any comments on same very welcome.
The IT has an opinion piece by Michael Casey, entitled 'Are shutters to be pulled down on Irish banks'. Casey writes 'It does not seem as if Ireland negotiated a very good deal. Yes, we secured additional funding of €67.5 billion, allowing for the fact that €17.5 billion is our own money. But the average interest rate, 5.83 per cent, is high, even with an upward sloping yield curve...Being such good Europeans we were easy meat. We had been cajoled to vote for the Lisbon Treaty; we had promised faithfully to deliver on the fiscal targets laid down by Brussels; we had never massaged our borrowing numbers..The ECB is clearly trying to protect French and German banks and prevent contagion. One might have expected that in return for this the ECB might have written off some of its own extensive lending to Irish banks or even taken over part of the Irish government guarantee of €440 billion..' Casey speculates that Irish banks may soon have foreign owners..He adds, ' It is said that approaches have already been made to potential buyers of banks in different parts of the world, including China.'
If that hasn't fired you up even more Therese Caherty reminds us why we shouldn't listen to Martin Naughton, 'While multimillionaire Martin Naughten urges us to tighten our belts, elsewhere in the Independent and Times reality bites. The ESB, Bord Gais and Airtricity make "the easy decision" not to disconnect those many people who are in arrears - there were over 500 disconnections in November. Charlie Weston in the Indo focuses on mortgage arrears. According to the Central Bank "more than 40,000 homeowners are in arrears as they have not paid their mortgage for three months or more, while another 30,000 have got their lender to lower their repayments. Where's Martin Naughten when you need him?'
10.47 PK switching over to a weather discussion.. interviewee: 'we are resourceful in a community sense'..Keep talking us up..A postscript here on Whelan on PK from an AITT member,
'Fun stuff on PK, where Mary O Rourke simply can't envisage going into an election with Cowan's poll numbers. In advance of Noel Whelan turning up to 'crunch the numbers', she discussed how he had spoken to the Lemass group (meeting of backbenchers) recently, and tried to prepare them for huge seat losses in January. Now I've never understood Whelan's Edward De Bono style political analysis - 'now wearing my green FF hat, now wearing the neutral blue helmet of a political analyst' - but I did cackle mirthlessly as O Rourke described discussions where he tired to prepare TDs for the reality that they would have to go look for a job. Wow. Do they need a Fás scheme? Are they workshy, skittering towards a welfare/dependency culture? In a country where thousands have applied for a few hundred retail jobs on several highly publicised occasions, the government - that accepted the IMF cut n paste workfarism that depends on a moralised vision of the feckless poor who need to be incentivised (bullied) to work - are worried about the job market. That is, a government that has refused to meaningfully examine job creation as a growth strategy is now peopled with folks suddenly worrying about unemployment.'
10. 35 PK interviewing a selection of the FF disaffected Tom Kitt, Mattie McGrath and Noel O'Flynn. Cowen needs to be replaced as leader of FF acc. to Tom Kitt, though not as Taoiseach..Hmm. Kitt reckons they need to connect again with the people. Noel Whelan (ex Ogra FF) expressing shock and awe...had reckoned in Oct that FF would be at 15 - 16 per shent. PK 'The budget will be a sucker punch but then people will calm down over the Christmas period'..So, acc Whelan FF's vote will rise again..Let's try a Where's Wally on the Irish population and this time Wally is an FF voter..
10.31 Quick comment here from Roddy Flynn. ..Just listening to Mary talking to PK and she referred to a meeting with Noel Whelan (political analyst and former FF candidate) talking about the poor poll numbers. His advice on canvassing for FF candidates - abandon the usual practice of knocking on every door in a housing estate since you're only going to get dogs abuse. Instead, mark out addresses of constituents who've been in contact with you and go only to them.
In other words, despite everything that's happened, despite a colossal failure on the part of politicians to look at the bigger picture over the past couple of decades, FF canvassing advice continues to fall back on clientalism (i.e. concentrating on the little picture).
10.10 Silja Bárá Ómarsdóttir writing in yesterday's Huffington Post is in jublilant mood trills, 'Today, Iceland celebrates 92 years as a sovereign country. This morning I woke up as a newly elected representative to the country's new constitutional assembly. The Beatles' song "Revolution" has been in my mind all day. The assembly is a direct result of the Pots and Pans Revolution which took place in Iceland after the banking crisis tanked the country's economy just over two years ago.' Silja is very happy at how the Icelanders readjusted the map of power to suit themselves
This set me thinking about protest movements here that have shaped my consciousness, boycotts by Dunnes Stores workers of South African goods, anti-nuclear demonstrations at Carnsore point, hunger strikers in the North (and in the UK), marches for the Birmingham Six on abortion, divorce, the Gulf Wars 1 and 2, the Iraq invasion, nose-cone smashers in Shannon (who featured again in the Wikileaks docs), Shell- to-Sea activists etc and the myriad groups currently assembling around citizen activism here... Protest, contrary to the processes of neo-liberalism is a bottom-up process. It depends on effective networking and also on identity building..If one were to assess the recent flourishing of citizen initiatives/ protest groups, one would not look to the mainstream media here, as they are absent from the pages and the airwaves...Is there a groundswell?
Fionnan Sheehan (rent an opinion) and Aunty Mary on Pat Kenny analysing, incisively, the FF meltdown...'You don't want to get your nose bitten off on 179 doors.' (Aunty Mary)
09.20 From Gavan, frostbitten ear stuck to the radio: Interesting discussion with Paul Colgan on Morning Ireland, presenting several international perspectives that regard default as inevitable and outlining how the Irish 'bailout' is already a footnote to discussions about far more drastic, systemic interventions. According to Colgan, influential market analysts are in agreement that what he called 'piecemeal bailouts' are not working, and that Jean Claude Trichet's policy of stepping up bond purchases and talking up growth is being met with increased discussion of strategies designed to pool sovereign risk in the Eurozone. They excerpted Justin Knight from UBS, who argued that a EU sovereign bond guarantee, akin to that which underwrites the ECB, is possibly the only action that will 'settle the markets' (again, that preternatural thing beyond human agency, it just needs some antacids for a bad case of reflux) short of the dismantling of the Eurozone. Knight was echoed by Graham Turner, also excerpted, and Turner went on to suggest that this would involve a 'massive political gesture' from Germany, which was wholly unlikely given that the Bundesbank was already uneasy with the bond buying strategy. The third excerpt, from Constantin Gurdgiev, focused on how the contagion crisis was now like a drunk in a bar at closing time, leeching for a fight or a shag (my summary), and had beer goggles on not only for Spain and Italy, but according to some reports, for France. It won't be contained by underwriting Irish banks, as near everyone bar the huddled lunatics in the Dáil asylum understand (or, perhaps like McMurphy, they understand more than they let on, in which case, fast forward to a more appropriate form of shock therapy). Gurdgiev speculated on a two-tier currency arrangement, with one northern European group centred on the Deutschmark and another set of peripherals with wheelbarrows of Namarks.
So be clear, the budget next week that will 'adjust' us once more is being pursued on the basis of a strategy that is already regarded as being almost beyond comment/contempt by market analysts.
09.15 Just wrapping up the last of the Morning Ireland good news - apologies for the time lag. Des Cahill feigning incredulity, in that teddy soft voice of his, at the FIFA decision to have the 2018 World Cup hosted in Russia and 2022 in Quatar. The snow has drifted from the news agenda for the interim but we did have a brief and celebratory Trichet interlude - he's 'playing poker with the markets' and according to Christopher McKevitt they just have to 'suck it up'. What's Trichet got that we don't have?
Justin Knight on Morning Ireland told us that the Germans hate the idea of guaranteeing debt, as Angela Merkel, known for her pathological aversion to risk, has indeed been indicating in recent days, signalling perhaps an unwillingness to ride over and over again to the rescue of errant PIIGS. Graham Turner reckons that a split in the Euro is likely, points to Argentina's successful default and the emergence of a (weaker) Euro- (stronger)Deutsche Mark bloc (Vorsprung durch die deutsche Mark), NUIG economics professor, professing the virtue of sentiment via references to third quarter good news: increased tax revenues, drop in the live register, increased consumer confidence (? Did I hear right?) though we're still looking at a 6 billion adjustment next year – but tbtg no more than that. Go revenue! John Murray chirping us all into wakefulness...'A Garda search has begun today for the 13% of voters still voting for Fianna Fáil...'
09.00 Morning all, Anne Marie here, hoping to kick off another busy #budgetjam day. Thanks to all who’ve warmed the Liveblog seat for the last two days and have vigorously turned up the volume on what will hopefully be a noisier, more informed, more widespread and dynamic discussion about the failure of our government to govern. Thanks also to our hosts here at politico.ie and to the backroom folks who’ve kept the show on the road.
I’ll be with you till 1pm. Looking forward to your tips, comments and asides on, and dismissals of, the myths that are being peddled today in the media around recent and upcoming fatal political choices, made on our behalf by a hollowed-out government, at the behest of the IMF and the ECB and in the interests of preserving the neo-liberal matrix into which we’ve slid.
Top stories this a.m. FF’s disastrous slide in the polls, as reported in today’s Irish Sun’s Red C poll. All media outlets are emphasizing FF’s drop to a level even lower than that of Sinn Féin’s 16 % (the proximity, the indignity, the shattered self-image (?), the horror, the horror). Election geeks are busy calculating just how many seats there will be for those FF posteriors not solidly kicked by voters, in the next Dáil. Estimates are panning out at around 16 – 18 seats acc. to Morning Ireland.
This morning’s IT aka the IBEC Voice gives centre stage to alpha businessman, Martin Naughton of Glen Dimplex urging us not to tax the country’s management classes, to cut overseas aid and halve the size of the Dáil. He is quoted as saying, “We are lucky that we have a very sound underlying economy. This has given us a good opportunity to sort ourselves out. I believe there are positives in it.” So, there you go sugar-coated shock doctrine. If you’re curious to know what exactly it is Naughton likes to spend his mega-dosh on, read the story here. Conspicuous consumption hasn’t gone away you know.
Hoping today too, to hear from you how we might transmute the anger we’re all experiencing into action. The Gardai are already on a countdown to next week’s overtime. What (non-violent) creative, highly visible, concerted plans do you/does your group have? Or if you’re not part of a group but want to register a protest against our rendition into neo-serfs, what plans do you have? Keep us posted at budgetjam@gmail.com or #budgetjam. Thanks a million to those of you who’ve already mailed on suggestions, comments and offers of assistance..stay in touch