Initial results suggest PD seats will rely on transfers

Initial counts returned by tallymen in constituencies with candidates for the Progressive Democrats would seem to confirm the conclusion of the exit poll conducted by Lansdowne Market Research that first preference support for the PDs has declined dramatically since the 2002 general election.

PD Deputy leader Liz O'Donnell had this morning secured a mere six per cent of the vote in Dublin South with over 44 per cent of boxes open.

At lunchtime in Dublin South East, Tainiste and party leader Michael Dowell had secured 19 per cent of the vote with 21 per cent of boxes opened (by lunchtime this had decreased to 13 percent). This compared with 32 percent for Fianna Fail, much of which is secured by Chris Andrews, 16 per cent for first time Fine Gael candidate, Lucinda Creighton, and 16 percent for Ruari Quinn, sitting TD for Labour. Based on these results, RTE predicts that the final seat in this four seat constituency will be fought out between McDowell and Quinn. However, with John Gormley of the Green Party assured many transfers , the Green Party is expected to imporove on his current rating of six percent. Dublin South East may yet see a repeat of the 1997election which saw Gormley and McDowell fight it out over several counts. Gormley won that bout after 11 counts.

In most other constituencies, PD candidates had secured very low shares of the vote. Dublin Mid West, Dun Laoighre and Laois-Offaly were the only constituencies with positive with shares of 10 per cent, eight per cent and nine per cent respectively. Should these percentages remain relatively unaffected throughout the day, PD success will hinge upon uncertain transfers. 

In other constituencies, the PDs had secured the following percentages:

Carlow Kilkenny -  one per cent with 11 per cent of boxes opened
Clare - one percent with 20 per cent of boxes open
Dublin South Central - two per with 50 per cent of boxes open
Dublin Central - one per cent with 50 per cent of boxes open
Dublin Mid West - 10 per cent with 50 per cent of boxes open
Dublin North - two per cent with 60 per cent of boxes open
Dublin North East - one per cent with 60 per cent of boxes open
Dublin South Central - one per cent with 32 per cent of boxes open
Dublin West - two per cent with 100 per cent of boxes open
Dun Laoighre - eight per cent with 21 per cent of boxes open
Galway East - seven per cent with 43 per cent of boxes open
Kildare North - two per cent with 25 per cent of boxes open
Kildare South - four per cent with 63 per cent of boxes open
Laois-Offaly - nine per cent with 40 per cent of boxes open
Limerick East - five per cent with 47 per cent of boxes open
Limerick West - nine per cent with 30 per cent of boxes open
Longford-Westmeath - 10 per cent with 28 per cent of boxes open
Mayo - one per cent with 31 per cent of boxes open
Meath East - three per cent with 19 per cent of boxes open
Tipp North one per cent  with 36 per cent of boxes open
Wicklow - one per cent with 10 per cent of boxes open