Good crime, bad crime

The press response to crime statistics is bereft of logic or consistency, writes Conor Brady

The publication of the annual crime statistics by the Garda (and in recent years, the publication of quarterly figures) provides the occasion for some of the lesser ritual dances that punctuate the media year.

Many a news editor's spirits have been lifted in an otherwise dull week by the promised launch of the Commissioner's report and an invitation to send a reporter along to hear the Minister give an account of his stewardship.

This is because the crime figures offer the opportunity to a creative editor and an imaginative reporter to come to virtually any set of conclusions they may wish. They can almost always be presented in such a way as to show that the Minister, the Commissioner and the gardaí are doing a fine job. Equally, they can be used to show that crime is going to hell and that nobody is safe in their beds any more.

They also provide an opportunity for opposition spokespersons on Justice to have a cut at the Minister of the day, usually in vapid generalities.

The provisional crime figures for 2004, released late last month, are a case in point. Almost without exception, the media decided they were a "good news" story.

"Praise for Garda as crime rate takes new beating" ran the headline in the Irish Independent. The Irish Times was somewhat more low-key, settling approvingly for "4 per cent drop in serious crime in Garda data for 2004." The Times had a short, accompanying report of the critical reactions of Opposition spokespersons under the headline "New crime figures prompt criticism."

In contrast, when the quarterly figures were published last October, the media in general decided they constituted a "bad news" story. The Irish Examiner headline ran "McDowell 'losing gun crime battle' as shootings continue." "Huge increase in gun crime," announced The Star. The Irish Independent told its readers "Gun crime, rape increase but fall in some offences."

Yet the crime realities on the ground in respect of both reports have been essentially the same. If anything, insofar as there have been changes in the recorded rates of serious crime, they contradict the newspapers' positive instincts in January and their negative instincts of last October.

It is true that the Garda's recorded incidence of "headline crime" is down 4 per cent in 2004 over the previous 12 months.

But in contrast, the rise continues in reported serious sexual crime – a phenomenon that has characterised crime reports for almost a decade now. These figures are notoriously susceptible to changes in reporting patterns and in the changing attitudes of victims.

Within the "headline crime" category, there is a rise of 38 per cent in cases of illegal discharge of firearms. Discharge of firearms rose from 210 to 290 known offences – almost four incidents each week of the year. It seems a frightening statistic in a supposedly low crime society served by a generally unarmed police force.

The Minister, Michael McDowell, makes the not unreasonable point that an overall reduction in crime represents progress and a vindication of his policies – not least against the background of a rapidly growing population. At 24.4 crimes per 100,000 people, Ireland has one of the lowest crime rates in the western world, he says. A reduction of 4 per cent is a "remarkable achievement" for the Garda he claims.

But in reality, the figures mask reported rises in the most threatening crimes – those involving the use of firearms and those involving rape or aggravated sexual assault.

So why do the news media greet what is essentially the same picture – or latterly a worse one – with positivity at one point in time and with negativity at another?

I cannot give a categorical answer. Perhaps it is because so much journalism has to be superficial, because reporters seldom have the time any more to research or to seek out international comparators when reporting on the performance of national institutions like the police. Perhaps it is because the Minister, or the Commissioner, or their press-relations executives are more persuasive at one time than another.

It certainly bears no relationship to the degree of critical scrutiny brought to bear on the figures by Opposition spokespersons. Fine Gael's Jim O'Keeffe trotted out the same jaded line last month about the "chronic under-resourcing of the Garda at the hands of the Minister." This is nonsense. The Garda is one of the best-equipped and best-trained police services in the world and this State has one of the highest ratios of police officers to population.

I am left wondering whether the decision to go "upbeat" or "downbeat" with the crime figures is something that varies with and reflects a more general mood in the community – and by extension in the newsrooms.

In the aftermath of a terrible tragedy or an especially memorable crime, there is often a rise in popular, supportive sentiment towards the police and it will be reflected in the media. I was frequently made aware of it in the years that I edited The Irish Times. In the weeks after an especially brutal murder or the hearing of a graphic case in the criminal courts, letters and telephone calls would frequently laud the gardaí for the discharge of their duty. Critical comments would tail off and sometimes disappear completely from the correspondence columns or from the telephone logs.

Conversely, there can be a different attitude when some wrong-doing or culpable failure by the police may be in the public consciousness. Perhaps revelations of events in Donegal coloured October's reports. Perhaps tragedies in Cork and elsewhere served to affirm the role of the Garda in recent weeks.

It's just a theory. But no news editor – and no reporter – is an island.

Conor Brady is Editor Emeritus of The Irish Times. He is a senior teaching fellow at the Michael Smurfit Graduate School of Business, UCD, where he lectures on modern media