The Galway East by-election - No Certainty for Fianna Fail
Should Fianna Fail fail to win the East Galway by-election, Charlie Haughey's position as Taoiseach and leader of the party would be under further threat, possibly fatal threat.
On the face of the Fianna Fail position seems secure. It won 55.1 % of the first Preference vote in the 1982 election, an increase of 2.2 percentage points on the 1981 result. On the Last effecctive Count (the net vote a party gets" - irwhjch means the first preference total minus votes that either don't transfer or transfer to other parties and plus any votes transferred to to it) the position is even more encouraging for Fianna Fail - it won 7.4% in 19S2, a gain of 3.5 percentage points on 1981.
But there are a number of facctors which suggest that Fianna Fail will 'not fare as well in a by-election. Firstly, the strong perrsonality advantage the party had over 'Fine Gael, with three strong candidates (the late John Callaanan, Michael Kitt andTorn Musssey, the former Minister for State) as against just one formidable opponent, Paul Connaughton, will not recur. The personality.factor this time will be very much more even, whatever candidates are chosen by either party.
Then there is the unpredictaability of by-elections generally. An analysis ofby-elections shows tha t there is little correlation beetween what happens then and the previous general election. This is so f of all sorts of reasons. Among themobviously being the massive attention showered by party leadders on a by-election constituency .
Fine Gael proved in Dublin West that it has the organisational know-how to rival Fianna Fail and this should again be a factor assisting the Qppositiori',' Paul Connaughton is one of the most ~mpressive of the 'new crop of Fine Gael TDs,- as evidenced by his recent elevation to the fronttbench and he will'be determined to prove his mettIe as Jim Mitchhell was.
On top of all this, the Tuam factory issue will likely be less decisive than it was in either the 1,9lH or 19!12 general elections, And the belief that Fine Gael Was abandoning the West is 'likely to seem less plausible, following the appointments of several Western TDsto Fine Gael portfolios. '.
There is little that Fianna Fail can do to improve on its situation. Therefore the tide of advantage would seem to swing. in favour of Fine Gael. Whether this tide will be sufficient to dissturb a last effective count total of S7.4% is a different matter.
One further point however.
Fine Gael did win a by-election in this area in 1964 when John Donnellan won 49.8% or the first preference votes as against 46.7% for Fianna Fail. However, Michael Kitt reversed this result in 1975 when he won his father's seat by taking 52% of the first preference vote.
All in all, this is not an absolutely sure fire thing for Charlie Haugghey. Were Fianna FaU to lose the election, it would be due to a commbination of 'the above factors, coupled with disillusionment with the Government - which means that Haughey Would be only marginnally responsible. But that is not how it would seem and 'his position would possibly be unntenable in that eventuality.
FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES
1981 1982 Gain/Loss
FF 17,509 52.9% 17,697 55.1% + 2.2%
FG 15,581 47.1% 13,454 41.9% - 5.2%
Lab. - - 946 2.9% + 2.9%
LAST EFFECTIVE COUNT
Gain/Loss
FF 53.9% 57.4% + 3.5
FG 46.1% 42.6%