Fine Gael - almost as bad

Magill had commissioned a cover for this issue depicting Garret FitzGerald as a prostitute for having sold his party's soul in its quest for power over the week prior to the election of a Taoiseach - we were naturally constrained from printing this by the revelation of Haughey's astounding deal with Tony Gregory. By Vincent Browne

But the fact remains that in the week to 10 days prior to the election of a Taoiseach, Fine Gael traduced the strategy which they had declared was central to their election and budgetary policy and committed themselves - and their successors - to two major white elephants which will cost the country massive amounts of money over the next several years.

There was serious disquiet within the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party and, more critically, within the cabinet over the tactic adopted by FitzGerald to hang on to power. Before the Fianna Fail leadership issue was settled there were a number within the party who viewed with some equanimity the prospect of Des O'Malley becoming Taoiseach. But when it emerged that it was Haughey who was to be the Fianna Fail nominee there was a determined effort made within the leadership to do almost anything to ensure that Haughey would not again get his hands on the levers of power.

It appears that there was serious disagreement within the cabinet on how far they should go in attempting to come to some kind of accommodation with the five left-wing deputies who held the balance of power. One cabinet minister was against any concessions whatever, John Bruton was against all but token modifications to the budget which had been defeated.

It seems it was FitzGerald who was primarily responsible for the suggestion that the VAT on clothes and footwear should be dropped, and then that the abolition of food subsidies should be shelved. It was at the very last moment that the further "concession" of dropping the taxation of short-term social welfare benefits was made.

Throughout the election campaign, Fine Gael had insisted that the VAT on clothing and footwear, along with the abolition of food subsidies, were critical instruments in getting the country out of the financial mess which Fianna Fail had left it in. Now with the abandonment of that line, serious questions arose about the correctness of that elecction strategy, as well of course as the credibility of the new Fine Gael posture.

The Whitegate issue was forced on the Government by the arbitrary deadline of March 1 set by the oil companies for a decision. The Government was faced with the alterrnative of committing itself to taking over the refinery or closing it down, at a time of maximum embarrassment to itself in the middle of a sensitive negotiation process with left-wing Independents, one of whom, Joe Sherlock, represented the constituency where the refinery is situated.

In the event, the worst instincts of the cabinet prevailed and a decision was taken to take over the refinery.

The cost to the exchequer per year is in the region of £20million, and the sole benefit to the country is the maintenance of about 150 jobs - a total cost per job per year of £133,333. The strategic arguments in favour of the refinery - that it advanced Irish economic sovereignty by providing an independent refining capacity which would help secure the availability of refined oil in times of world crisis - was recognised by most of the cabinet as entirely bogus (it was acknowledged that in the event of a world crisis there would be difficulty in getting access to crude oil and, in any event, the storage of refined oil would have the same effect).

Another decision of similar proportions was taken during this time also - to go ahead with the construction of the new power station at Arigna. This will cost £60m, of which the interest repayments on the capiital will be in the region of  £10m per annum. As no projections of electricity demand suggest that this additional capacity will be needed until the 1990s, it is certain that for a period of at least five years we will be paying £10m per annum for a plant for which there is no need.

Fine Gael is temporarily stunned by its removal from power and a feeling of helplessness in the face of the perceived Haughey ploy to spring a general election at a time when Fine Gael without Labour could not pose a credible alternative. However, there are some prospects of the party being able to entice some recruits from the disaffected Labour benches.

Fine Gael sources say that the likes of Barry Desmond, Eileen Desmond, Dan Kavanagh and, possibly, Dick Spring, would be persuaded to cross the gangway to Fine Gael. Kavanagh would be, in the eyes of Fine Gael elders, the best "catch" but then there would be little prospect of holding three Fine Gael seats out of four in Wicklow (the new electoral commission may oblige however by increasing the size of the constituency). Were the party able to take, say six Labour TDs, then with a total of 69 depuuties it could make a credible challenge for power on its own, but without that and without Labour's participation in a Coalition pact, the return of a Fianna Fail government would be almost a certainty - if there are such phenomena in Irish politics any more. •