Is Fianna Fail looking for 'stability' or 'endurance'?

The somewhat surprising result of last week's general election has left Fianna Fail with two possible coalition combinations: FF/PD's/Independents and FF/Greens.

This assessment is contingent on the assumption that the Cinderella of Irish politics, the Labour party will not once again decide to shoot itself in the foot and go into coalition with FF and it also assumes that political ideology is still important enough to prevent the PD's and the Greens entering government together with Fianna Fail. Essentially, however, the choice is one for the incoming Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

When the Taoiseach states that 'stability' is the all-important consideration to be borne in mind in the formation of a new government, I would have to disagree with him. ‘Stability' can be defined in a number of ways but when applied to FF, I think most people would automatically translate ‘stability' in this instance to mean FF holding on to power for as long as possible.

In this sense ‘stability' is interchangeable with the word ‘endurance' and I don't the think the success of next administration can be judged merely by remaining in office for the five-year term. Indeed if it is the case that Ahern intends to retire at 60; he will not lead the government into the next election. Therefore, what has to be avoided at all costs is a repeat of Tony Blair's long goodbye in the UK. We must ensure that we do not partake in a 2/3-year retirement party and legacy-constructing era in Irish political life, but this is entirely contingent upon the choice the Taoiseach makes in the next two weeks regarding his coalition partners.

He is now faced with a choice between a remodelled ‘more of the same' option as represented by a FF/PD/Ind coalition or a decision to embrace the difficult questions that will arise in a coalition with the Green Party.

‘Flaky' and politically unproven maybe, but the Greens also represent a fresh air in Irish political life. The macro socio-cultural and economic challenges the Green tackle are the questions of the future and successful coalition between the two parties over a period of 2/3/4 years may transform the political as well as physical environment of the country to a greater extent than any stagnant, status-quo five-year administration. The choice for the Taoiseach is, if he wants his last administration to follow a path of stability and stasis with a decimated PD party and Independents or to embrace the really difficult issues in contemporary Irish society as represented by negotiating a program for government with the Green Party.

People who lived through the 1980's may be weary of unstable governments, but new political circumstances dictate that we are faced with a coalition government in reality. The job of a coalition then should not simply be to ensure ‘stability' but rather should reflect policy and principles that react to the political realties of contemporary society. If in the last 3-4 years of his tenure, the Taoiseach is brave enough to risk embracing the Green Party and their attendant policies, his historical legacy may not have to be contrived or written whilst in office but will be all the more rich for his attempt, however successful, in attempting to undertake difficult and real change for a new Ireland.