The Fall and Fall of the Labour Party

Only seven of the 15 seats which Labour currently holds can be deemed safe; These are Dublin Central (Michael O'leary), Dun Laoghaire (Barry Desmond), Meath (Jimmy Tully), Kildare (Joe Bermingham), Tipperary South (Sean Treacy), Cork North Central (Toddy O'Sullivan) and Cork South Central (Eileen Desmond) .

The party is in grave danger of losing seats in Wexford (Brendan Corish), Carlow-Kilkenny (Seamus Pattison) and Wicklow (Liam Kavanagh). There is less of a danger, but by no means inconsiderable danger, of the party losing seats in Kerry North (Dick Spring), Kerry South (Michael Moyniihan), Galway West (Michael D. Higgins), Tipperary North (John Ryan) and Dublin South West (Mervyn Taylor).

There are only three constituencies in the country where Labour has a realistic chance of winning an adclitonal seat in the next election. These are in the neighbouring constiituencies of Dublin South East, Dublin South Central and Dublin South.

Meanwhile there are eight constituencies where the party could lose a seat in the next election. The likelihood is that the party will drop a further four to five seats in the next election, ending up with only 9 or 10 seats. There is a prospect that the party could be reduced to 7 seats after the next election.

Labour's position in Dublin, in particular, has been gravely weakened. It won 28.3% of the vote there in 1969. This dropped to 22.3% in 1973 and to 17.5% in 1977. It collapsed to 12.2% in 1981.

Labour held seats in the following constituencies until quite recently and now there is no prospect of winning a seat in any of these in the foreseeable future: Cork South West (Michael Pat Murphy), Cork East (Paddy McAuliffe), Limerick East (Stephen Coughlan and later Mick Lipper), Waterford (Tom Kyne), Dublin West (Justin Keating), Dublin North East (Conor Cruise-O'Brien) and Dublin North West (David Thornley).

Labour held seats in the following constituencies at one time and there is now no prospect of regaining a seat in these areas: Clare (where the vote is now 5.5%), LaoissOffaly (4.3%), Longford-Westrneath (7.1%), Louth (6.2%), Mayo (both constituencies are now uncontested).

There are only four areas where Labour has never held a seat. These are Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, Roscommon and Sligo- Leitrim.

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Carlow-Kilkenny: Seamus Pattison's seat here is in grave danger. The Labbour vote has been declining consistenttly in the constituency since 1965 when it was 20.2%, to 12.9% in 1981. With his nomination to the European Parliament, his chances of being reeelected must be in even greater jeoopardy. If Labour loses the seat .here next time, it will be the only time since 1923, apart from the 1932 elecction, that it will have failed to win a seat in this constituency. Cavan-Monaghan: Labour never held a seat here but it did win 11.3% of the vote in 1923, 7.2% in 1943 and 5.4% in 1969. (On all these occasions the two counties formed separate connstituencies but we have amalgamated the figures for the purposes of commparison). Labour nowadays doesn't contest the constituency.

Clare: Labour held a seat here at all elections from 1923 onwards, except for 1938 and 1944, until 1967 when Patrick Hogan, the Labour TD and then Ceann Comhairle died. In 1951 the last election which Hogan conntested), the vote was 12.6%, it had dropped to 6.9% in 1965. It was 7.7% in 1969,6.3% in 1973 and 4.4% in 1977. There were optimistic hopes that the party could take a seat here in 1981 with Patricia McCarthy but she won a derisory 5.5% of the vote, which means that there is no prospect of Labour recovering a seat it held here for so long, in the foreseeable future.

The Cork Region: The Labour vote has declined steadily here since 1961 when it was 20.7%. It stood at the same percentage in 1965 but declined to 17.2% in 1969 and is now 10.7%. While Labour manages to take tw.o seats from the region (Eileen Desmond and Toddy O'Sullivan), it has lost, seemingly irrevocably, two seats it held here for many years. The first of these is that formerly held by Paddy McAuliffe in Cork North and Cork North East. That seat was lost in 1965 and never recovered. In Cork Hast, where the party held a seat in the twenties and thirties, the Labour vote is now a mere 1.7%. Labour had hopes of picking up a seat in Cork North through Dr. Michael Smith of Kanturk but he managed to poll only 11.9% of the vote in this three-seater ~ i.e. less than half a quota. But worst of all, Labour has faded from the map in Cork South West where it held a seat from 1923 to 1981. In the recent election, following the retirement of Michael Pat Murphy, it managed to poll only 9.6% of the vote.

Donegal: The party never held a seat in any of the Donegal constituencies. Dublin Region: There has been a ca1amatous decline in the Labour vote in the Dublin region, which should be the stronghold of the party. From a peak of 28.3% in 1969, the vote droppped to 22.3% in 1973, to 17.5% in 1977 and 12.2% in 1981 - a fall of 57% in eleven years. The party has now only three TDs in the region, which has a total of 43 seats. In 1969

Labour had eight TDs in the Dublin region. But the most depressing feaature of the party's position in Dublin, from Labour's point of view, is the fact that its chances of reversing this trend appears remote.

In Dublin North the party won only 16.0% of the vote in this three seat constituency, less than two-thirds of a quota. In Dublin North East, Conor Cruise O'Brien's old constituenncy, it won a mere 8.8% of the vote. In Dublin North Central it took just 4.5% of the vote. In Dublin North West, where Brendan Halligan stood, it won 12.4%, far short of the quota. In Dubblin South East where Ruairi Quinn lost his seat, it won 12.2%, again well short of the quota (which is 20% in a four seater). However here transfers frorn Fine Gael brought it up to 18% on the last count, thereby giving the party a chance of recovering this seat.

In Dublin South Central it won 12% of the first preference vote and 14% on the last count, just short of the quota in this five seater (the quota being 16.6%). It was here that Frank Cluskey lost his seat and there would be a chance in normal circumstances of recovering this. However, given the fact that Cluskey's personal vote has declined steadily since 1969 and that he has now become emersed in the European Parliament it must be assummed that the party will fare even worse here than it did in the June election and will therefore fail to take a seat.

In Dublin South West it won a seat with 17. 7%of the first preference vote and 21 % of the vote on the last count. Mervyn Taylor was the elected candiidate. This seat cannot be regarded as secure however as Fine Gael came close to taking a second seat here, allthough Dr. Con Brennan, the Fine Gael candidate was 2,000 votes beehind Taylor on the last count.

In Dublin West Labour fared disasstrously, winning only 7.9% of the vote. Given the fact that the party was strong in this region in 1969 and 1973 ~'., John O'Connell and Sean Dunne were both elected in the old Dublin South West of which part is in this new constituency of Dublin West and Justin Keating was elected for Dublin Mid County in 1973 and, again, part of that constituency, is now in Dublin West - this is a disastrous showing. There would seem to be no immediate prospect of regaining a seat here.

In Dublin South, Labour lost a seat, winning only 9.8% of the first preferrence votes. John Horgan was almost 2,000 votes behind Nial Andrews when he was eliminated. Horgan has now become a member of the Euroopean Parliament and this must damage his chances of regaining the seat.

In Dun Laoghaire the party was just short of a quota with 16% of the vote and that seat, held by Barry Desmond, would seem to be reasonably secure. Dublin Central the constituency of the party leader, Michael O'Leary, Labour got just over a quota in first preference votes with 17.5%. There were hopes that O'Leary would bring in another Labour candidate, Pat Carroll, but that

is clearly out of the question in the foreseeable future. To sum up thereefore, as far as the Dublin region is concerned, there is a prospect of taking only one further seat here, that in Dublin East, but as against that there is a danger that the party would lose a seat in Dublin South West. Galway: Labour won a seat here in 1923 and in June 1927. It did not Àcapture a seat in the region again until 1981. The party doesn't contest Gallway East but in Galway West its vote has been increasing steadily since Michael D. Higgins first entered the fray in 1969. It was then 11.3%, it increased to 13.5% in 1973, dropped back to 11.7% in 1977 and rose to 12.2% in 1981. Assisted by Fine Gael and SFWP transfers Labour won 17.2% of the vote on the last count, just over the quota of 16.66%. This seat cannot be regarded as secure, esspecially if Fine Gael makes a deterrmined effort to take a seat in Galway City.

Kerry North: Labour has held a seat here since 1943, when Dan Spring first got elect~~~However Dick Spring got in by a mere 144 votes on the sixth count over Ger Lynch of Fine Gael. Although Spring has an opportunity to consolidate his position, having been appointed a Minister for State, the seat is highly marginal and Fine Gael must pose a very serious challenge next time out.

Kerry South: Michael Moynihan took a seat here for Labour in 1981 for the first time ever, with 24.5% of the votes. Although he headed the poll here, the seat is vulnerable. Fianna Fail need only a slight swing to take two seats out of three and Fine Gael should do better next time than the 23.5% it won in June.

Kildare: Labour held a seat here from 1923 to 1969 - the former Labour leader, William Norton represented this constituency from 1932 un til his death in 1964. There was no Labour representative elected in 1969 but Joe Bermingham won through in 197 3 and has held the seat since. The seat can be regarded as reasonably secure, although with just 18.5% of the first preference vote there is not much room for slippage.

Laois-Offaly: Labour won a seat here in all elections from 1923 to 1965, with the exceptions of 1957 and 1961. In fact in June 1927 it won two seats, through W. Davin and 1. F. Gill. Since 1961 the party's vote has steadily deeclined. It was 12.8% then, fell to 11.4% in 1965, to 9.6% in 1969, to 4.3% in 1973, rose to 5.0% in 197·7 and fell back to 4.3% in 1981. There is no foreseeable prospect of Labour being able to regain the seat it held here for so long.

Limerick: The party held a seat in all elections here since 1923 until 1977, with the exception of 1932 and 1957. It never was in with a chance in West Limerick (the constituency was diviided in two in 1947) but it held a seat in East Limerick until 1977, with the exception of the 1957 election. In 1977 Mick Lipper was elected as an Independent Labour candidate and he later joined Labour. He was defeated in 1981 by Jim Kernrny. He was less than 900 votes behind Kernrny when he was eliminated. There seems little prospect of Labour regaining this seat in the foreseeable future - indeed there must be a danger of Kemmy's seat going to Fianna Fail next time. Longford-Westmeath: Labour won a seat here in both elections of 1927 but on no occasion since then. It won a creditable 10.6% of the vote in 1969 but only 7.1 % in 1981 and therefore has no prospect of taking a seat here. Louth: Labour held a seat here in 1943 and 1948. It won 12.8% of the vote in 1969, 8.2% in 1973, 5.2% in 1977 and 6.2% in 1981. There are no prospects of winning a seat here. Mayo: Labour won a seat in both elecctions since 1954, except for 1957. However there has been a steady deecline in its vote since 1965, when it won 28.8%. It won 23.4% in 1969, 19.1% in 1973, 16.9% in 1977 and 17.1 % in 1981. With a swing away from the Government it is possible that Jimmy Tully would lose his seat here. There is also the prospect that once Tully retires, on present form, Labour would lose the seat. Roscommon: The party never held a seat here. Although it won a respecctable 12.6% of the vote in 1965 it doesn't contest the constituency nowwadays.

Sligo-Leitrim: It never held a seat here either. It got 11 .7% of the vote in 1965 but this has been whittled away to 0.8%in 1981.

Tipperary North: The party has traaditionally held a seat here but lost it in 1969. This was regained in 1973 when the party won 19.1 % of the vote. Allmost uniquely this vote has risen since then to 23.2% in 1981. In spite of that the seat cannot be regarded as safe. It was short of a quota on first prefeerence votes (23.3%) and just ahead of a quota on the last effective count. With David Maloney securing a seat here for Fine Gael, Fianna Fail will be challenging Labour for the third seat. Tipperary South: This seat would seem to be secure, although it seemed in jeopardy prior to the recent elecction. Sean Treacy took 21.5% of the first preference vote and would seem to be in no danger of losing the seat. Waterford: Labour held a seat here through Tom Kyrie until 1977 (he was defeated in 1969 but regained the seat in 1973). However that seat would seem to have been lost irrevoocably for the foreseeable fu ture for the vote has now declined to a mere 3.7%, from the 24.5% peak it reached in 1965.

Wexford: Brendan Corish and his father, Richard Corish, have held a seat here since 1922. However, there is grave doubt that Labour will manage to hang on here at the next election. The party's vote has been steadily declining since 1965, when it was 32.3%. It had dropped to just 13.6% in 1981 and Corish was elected with only 94 votes over Sean Browne of Fianna Fail on the last count. Wicklow: Again there is doubt about the party's ability to hang on to its seat here. Its vote has declined since 1969 when it was 23.2%. It was 14.7% in 1973,jumped to 19.8%in 1977 and fell back to 14.4% in 1981. Liam Kabanagh had only 218 votes to spare over Gemma Hussey of Fine Gael on the last count. •