The election calculus
Fianna Fáil back in office with Labour. By Vincent Browne
All election predictions are wrong but one can get a sense of the likely outcome from an examination of each constituency, based, in part, on public and private constituency polls.
The key issue in Election 2007 outcome is how Fianna Fáil will fare. The consensus is it will lose seats from the 81 level it attained in 2002. But it is still possible for the party to win an overall majority (this could happen if it is perceived in the course of the campaign that the alternative coalition has no chance of making it). But the likelihood is the party will lose seats and we are predicting losses of a net eight seats, down to 73.
Were this to happen, Fianna Fáil would seek to form a coalition with Labour because that would be the only party (aside from Fine Gael) that could give a new coalition an overall majority.
Coalition with the Greens or Sinn Féin would fall short of 84 seats. And would require the support of Independents. With fewer Independents around and much fewer Fianna Fáil “gene pool” Independents, it is unlikely a stable coalition could be formed by Fianna Fáil other than with Labour.
As for the prospects of a new Rainbow Coalition comprising of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens, there seems very little prospect of that. On the basis of these predictions these parties between them could have the same number of seats as a depleted Fianna Fáil would have on its own: 73.
There are likely to be several surprises and some inevitabilities. Among them the following:
• Sinn Féin will fail to make a dramatic break-through but will still gain seats.
• The Independents will fare badly.
• Fine Gael will make a recovery on its 2002 performance but nowhere like the levels predicted by its election-diviner, Frank Flannery.
• Labour's performance again will be dismal but the party is likely to find itself in office.
• The Dáil's best TD, Joe Higgins, could lose his seat in Dublin West.
• The PDs will do badly (hardly a surprise?) but even if they don't, the party has almost no chance of returning to office.
• The Greens will do well but still will get no more than nine seats. The party will however have a real chance of significant gains in the following elections, if Labour again commits hari-kari by going into government with Fianna Fáil.
But predictions are always wrong, especially of the future.
FF min FF max FF likely Fine Gael Labour Greens Sinn Fein PDs Other Seats
Carlow Kilkenny (5) 2 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 5
Cavan-Monaghan (5) 2 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 5
Clare (4) 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
Cork East (4) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 4
Cork North Central (4) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 4
Cork North West (3) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Cork South Central (5) 2 3 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 5
Cork South West (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Donegal North East (3) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Donegal South West (3) 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 3
Dublin Central (4) 1 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 4
Dublin Mid West (4) 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 4
Dublin North (4) 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 4
Dublin North Central (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Dublin North East (3) 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 3
Dublin North West (3) 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 3
Dublin South (5) 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 5
Dublin South Central (5) 1 2 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 5
Dublin South East 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 4
Dublin South West (4) 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 4
Dublin West (3) 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 3
Dun Laoghaire (5) 1 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5
Galway East (4) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 4
Galway West (5) 2 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5
Kerry North (3) 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 3
Kerry South (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Kildare North (4) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 4
Kildare South (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Laois-Offally (5) 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 5
Limerick East (5) 2 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 5
Limerick West (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Longford-Westmeath (4) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 4
Louth (4) 1 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 4
Mayo (5) 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 5
Meath East (3) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3
Meath West (3) 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Roscommon-Sth Leitrim (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Sligo-North Leitrim (3) 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 3
Tipperary North (3) 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 3
Tipperary South (3) 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 3
Waterford (4) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 4
Wexford (5) 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 5
Wicklow (5) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5
Total 61 86 73 43 21 9 8 3 9 166
2002 seats 81 31 21 6 5 8 14 166
Difference -8 12 0 3 3 -5 -5