THE DUMP HAUGHEY CAMPAIGN

Charles Haughey's fate was sealed long before the votes were cast. It was Albert Reynolds who decided to remove his photograph from the newspaper advertisements and it was Reynolds who was the first to sense alarm at Haughey's headlong drive for power at that first wild press conference of the campaign on January 28.

Martin O'Dohoghue was approached by reporters in the Da~staurant later that evening and asked if he approved of Haughey's stated attitude towards borrowing, the Coalition's budget and general economic strategy. Clearly, it was the first that O'Donoghue knew of the press connference, let alone of what Haughey had said.

A hasty meeting of senior party figures took place the following morning (Friday January 29) in Mr. Haughey's room at Leinster House. Those attending that meeting inncluded O'Donoghue and and Reynolds as well as George Colley, Gerry Collins, Des O'Malley and Brian Lenihan. There, the general strategy for the campaign was.hammered out. Eventually, a speech was drafted for him on the ecoonomy, in which he was to accept the Coalition's current budget deficit target of £715 million for 1982. Haughey was at first reluctant to deliver that speech but was evenntually prevailed upon to do so at a party function in Malaahide that evening. Ironically, it was to attract little media attention.

The first opinion poll of the campaign was published in The Irish Times on Friday Febuary 5. It showed Haughey trailing Garret FitzGerald in the popularity stakes by 20 percen tage points. Some days before that; the Fianna Fail strategy committee had,begun to accept that Haughey was a major electoral liability and had started to play down his role in the campaign. The poll only confirmed what had already become obvious from the doorstep canvass.

At some stage during the campaign, consideration was given to dumping Haughey from the leadership then and there. It wasn't seriously considered because of the unnlikelihood of securing unanimity on the proposal and the probability that Haughey himself would vigorously resist the attempt, thereby ensuring the party's defeat at the polls. But there evolved a tacit agreement to get rid of him immediately after the election, whatever the outcome.

The determination to move against Haughey has soliidified since the inconclusive outcome of the election became known. There is a perception at senior levels within the party that whatever chance Fianna Fail has of attracting the necessary support from the Independentand SFWP deputies is gravely prejudiced with Haughey still in the leadership.

Therefore, a determined effort to oust 'Haughey before the Dail meets on March 9 is being mobilised. The effort is likely to come to the fore at the meeting of the Parliamenntary Party to choose Parliamentary nominees for the Senate election panels - this meeting is likely to take place around the middle of next week - March 2 or 3.

Jim Gibbons, Haughey's old adversary, has been the first to give public utterance to the mood within the party to topple Haughey. He said on television on the night of the election count that the Parliamentary Party would be meetting "for the purposes of putting forward a candidate for the leadership" - there is no such procedure in the Fianna Fail constitution.

More significantly, when, on the same night, Martin O'Donoghue was asked on television if Mr. Haughey's name would be proposed as Taoiseach when the Dail met, he evaded the question by claiming that he did not know the procedure which the Parliamentary Party adopts on such occasions and that there were special problems caused by the defeat of the chairman of the Parliamentary Party, Billy Kenneally of Waterford. Later on during the night of the count, George Colley also demurred when asked about Haughey's continued leadership of the party.

Haughey has amassed an array of enemies within the party over the last two years, thereby greatly weakenning his position at present. Martin O'Donoghue has a score to settle, following his dismissal from the Government when Haughey became Taoiseach. So, too, has Bobby Molloy. George Colley and Jim Gibbons have long-standing grudges.

Brian Lenihan was none too pleased with being moved to the vague position of Policy Director in the recent fronttbench re-shuffle and he was one of t~ose who put the curbs on Haughey during the campaign. Ray Burke also has no reason to be enamoured of the leader. He was very obvioussly demoted in the re-shuffle and his failure to take a second seat in Dublin North cannot have soliidified the relationship between Haugghey and himself. Incidentally, both Lenihan and Burke voted against Haugghey in the December 1979 leadership election, having deliberated on the issue in Buswells Hotel for days before the vote.

The position of Albert Reynolds is also crucial. He was effectively demooted in the Haughey re-shuffle of last month - he lost responsibility for Posts and Telegraphs and was given noominal responsibility for organisational matters. As it happened, this latter ressponsibility became crucial in a manner that was almost certainly never intennded by Haughey. Once the election had been sprung within two weeks of the re-shuffle, Reynolds had to be appointed Director of Elections. He was less than entirely successful in this role during the campaign, which was hardly surprising, given his relative lack of experience with the nitty-gritty of the Fianna Fail organisation. •

ANTI HAUGHEY 30

Jim Gibbons
Rory O'Hanlon
SYlvester Barrett
Pearce Wyse
Joe Walsh
Hugh Goughlan
George Colley
Ray Burke
Jim Tunney
Seamus Brennan
Niall Andrews
Tom FitzPatrick
Mary Harney
Brian Lenihan
Liam Lawlor
David Andrews
Martin O'Donoghue
Bobby Molloy
Frank Fahey
John O'Leary
Charles McGreevy
Des O'Malley
William O'Dea
Gerry Collins
Albert Reynolds
Padraigh Faulkner
Eddie Filgate
Denis Gallagher
Sean Browne
Ciaran Murphy

NEUtRAL, Or UNKNOWN  - 34

Liam Aylward
John Wilson
Jim Leonard
Michael Ahern
Denis Lyons
Gene FitzGerald
Clem Coghlan
Paddy Gallagher
Michael Woods
Ned Brennan
Michael Barrett
Ben Briscoe
Gerry Brady
Sean Walsh
Michael Kitt
Maire Geoghegan -Quinn
Denis Foley
Gerry Brady
Liam Hyland
Bernard Cowan
Michael Noonan
Sean Keegan
Tom Bellew
Sean Calleary
P.J. Morley
Michael Lynch
Colm Hilliard
Jim Fitzsimons
Terry Leyden
Michael O Kennedy
Sean Byrne
Sean McCarthy
Jackie Fahey
Hugh Byrne

PRO HAUGHEy - 17
Brendan Daly
Bill Loughnane
Sean Ffrench
Tom Meaney
Bertie Ahern
Charles Haughey
Vincent Brady
John Callanan
Tom McEllistrim
Paddy Power
Ger COnnolly
Padraigh Flynn
Sean Doherty
Ray McSharry
Matt Brennan
John Ellis
Lorcan Allen