Dismal performance by Labour

It wasn't just the Progressive Democrats who fared dismally in Election 2007. So too did the Labour Party, which saw a fall in its share of the national vote and its worst electoral performance in 18 years. In 2002 it won 10.8 per cent of the national vote, this time it won just 10.1 per cent. No other party, aside from the Progressive Democrats, saw a fall in its vote share.

On radio on Saturday morning Pat Rabbitte spoke derisively about Sinn Fein's “defeat” in the election. Sinn Fein increased its share of the vote in this election, albeit marginally (from 6.5 per cent to 6.9 per cent). Sinn Fein also saw 22,371 more people vote for it than voted for it in 2002 – Labour, in contrast saw a rise of only 9,037, which is a miserable performance in a total valid poll which increased buy 208,687 since 2002.

But, in spite of this dismal performance (or maybe because of this dismal performance) Labour may turn out to be Fianna Fail's preferred coalition partners, even thought Fianna Fail would have to conceded more cabinet seats to Labour than it would  to the Green Party.

Fianna Fail need six TDs to support it to establish a Dáil majority. This is precisely the number of seats the Green Party has won. And with two Fianna Fail-leaning Independents – Jackie Healy-Rea and Beverley Flynn (who may soon rejoin Fianna Fail)  - that might seem sufficient “cover”.

But the Greens may appear to Fianna Fail to be too volatile, too prone to finding a “principle” and resigning as “a mater of honour”. Moreover the Greens may actually refuse to join in coalition, for its even more “volatile” membership (that is “volatile” as perceived by establishment parties) will determine its strategy and could well impose conditions that would be unacceptable to Fianna Fail.

The socialist seventies or about-to-be seventies (that is as in age) realise this is their last chance of office and many are gagging at the prospect of office, after ten years in the wilderness. A sixty eight seat majority would do just fine and it would have another very attractive advantage.

If Labour goes into government with Fianna Fail now, come the next election, what alternative option will be on offer to the electorate – a Fine Gael-Greens alternative? It would secure Fianna Fail's continuance in office not just for another five years but for a another ten.

As for Pat Rabbitte's repeated commitments not to return Fianna fail to office, no problem at all. The “national interest” would prevail. Actually, in such circumstances the “national interest” would coincide happily with the Pat Rabbitte interests, for it he is not to be in government, his colleagues in Labour will almost certainly ask him to step aside.

Too bad about the Labour constituency of the underclass. That 20 per cent of the population who live on incomes of les than the equivalent of €11,000 (euros) for a single person or €29,000 for two adults and three children.