Digital kills the cinema star

In recent years there has been a global decline in cinema attendance. Ireland still has a high attendance rate but this could soon change

While video may indeed have killed the radio star, it left cinema relatively unscathed. However, the same cannot be said for digital, which appears to be making a good job at killing cinema's shiny star.

What do cinema's media moguls and teenage girls have in common? Answer: Their determined pursuit of young men. However, this round seems to be swinging in favour of the teenage girls, because the movie moguls are being jilted by the very audience they love the most.

Cinema admissions in many countries, including the all-important US market (to themselves anyway), have been dropping in 2005. US box-office revenue is down eight per cent (year-to-date) versus 2004, and ticket sales are down approximately 11 per cent. Ireland has long enjoyed one of the highest admissions figures in Europe: recent figures had us at 4.2 visits per person per year: not far off the US's average of 4.6 visits.

That's big money, when you consider that US box-office takings for 2004s The Incredibles was $261m. Of course, the highest-grossing US movie ever is still the bottom-numbing Titanic – coming in at more than $600m. Trailing by $140m, in second position is Star Wars, followed by Shrek 2 (both infinitely more watchable).

Irish cinema admissions have increased by a whopping 75 per cent in the past decade. The biggest growth years were 1996 (the year of Jerry Maguire, Independence Day and Twister) and 2000 (Gladiator, The Grinch, Misson Impossible II and many more). These movies have something in common – they appeal to everyone.

The top movies for the year to date in Ireland are also family-friendly, but simply not as successful as previous years in drawing in the crowds. It is with sadness that I inform you that the abysmal Meet the Fockers is the most popular movie in Ireland from January through to August 2005. It is followed by Charlie & the Chocolate Factory, Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith and, the just not-up-to-scratch, Madagascar.

While it is great to see cinema admissions increasing by 75 per cent and the number of screens increasing significantly over the past decade, there is concern that the party may be over. From January to August 2005, cinema admissions dropped by 9 per cent and, say what I might about Meet the Fockers and its ilk, these should have been big draws. The multitude of screens at UGC (now renamed Cineworld – does it change its name every year?) and the new cinema in Dundrum should go some way towards halting the decline, but I expect that, by year end, admissions will have dropped to 7 per cent on 2004, bringing it back in line with 2001's figures.

I digress. Back to the missing young men. Men tend to be innovators in media usage. They are early adopters of new media and, as such, are good indicators of how other audiences will react in the future. Young American men (those under 25) say they have seen 24 per cent fewer movies this summer compared to 2003.

The digital age has captured the hearts and minds of younger men. PlayStation, Xbox and the internet all serve to distract men from other media. This could have a knock-on effect for outdoor advertising, which is currently a good medium to reach this audience. However, if these young men are just hanging out in their mate's basement playing video games, how can they possibly ever see a poster? Besides that – how are the young girls going to find them?

There is talk that the latter part of the year will save us all, but that's beginning to sound like a George Bush promise. Wallace and Gromit, Chronicles of Narnia, Harry Potter and Oliver Twist are the big releases for the last quarter, but, in my opinion, are not strong enough to reverse the year-long trend. One to keep an eye out for is the surprise summer hit in the US, March of the Penguins, which does exactly what it says on the tin (it's a documentary about penguins marching).

Hollywood has two choices – reinvent itself into a medium that attracts young, male viewers or create products that appeal across a wider section of the population. These audiences are less picky and more loyal. One of the other reasons sited by young men for non-attendance is price – cinema is no longer a cheap date. Maybe this is another area into which Eddie Hobbs could do some research. In Ireland the ticket price, plus a medium popcorn and soft drink will see no change out of €15 – and that's if you're a scaldy git and she has to pay for herself.

Nuala Long is director of MCM Communications Ltd