Betting on Bertie
A General Election not only excites the media. The bookies and their customers love a competition. Irelands largest bookmaker Paddy Power this week predicted operating profits for 2007 of €58million. This forecast is based on current earnings from sporting events which have gone Paddy Powers way in the first 20 months of the year.
The bookies classify elections as non-sporting events. Until Thursday they are still offering odds on the make up of the next government. When our office punter checked in the morning, the odds of a FF/Green/PD government were 1 / 5. A result with FF / Green on their own was at 3 / 1, a FF / LP coalition was at 8 / 1 and a FF minimum / majority was 9 / 1. By the evening the bets were closed, and all that was on offer in Irish politics was the chance to win big on the possibility of the next FG and FF leader (after Enda Kenny and Bertie Ahern). As far as the bookies are concerned, the contest ended on Thursday. Do the bookmakers know something we don't?
Paddy Power told Village that their odds are based on the opinions of "a team of specialised people working round the clock. A mixture of previous results, opinion polls and personal political opinions were all combined with the weight of money to make up the odds." With the ordinary man on the street up against people like these, does he have a chance?
The surprise result is the only chance to create a windfall for the flutterers. This year was a big year for surprise results. According to Paddy Power, the major upsets were Dan Boyle failing to win in Cork South Central at 1 / 33, Mairead McGuinness losing out in Louth at 1 / 10, Niall Blaney winning over Cecelia Keaveney and FF's Martin Brady and Ivor Callely failing to secure seats. Michael McDowell loss and Sinn Fein's poor performance were both shocks to the bookmakers. The biggest loser for Paddy Power was the "number of seats" market. So many smaller parties lost out to FF and FG that "the punters cleaned up". The bookies also lost a significant amount on Bertie Ahern becoming Taoiseach again.
Not to be outdone, Paddy Power clawed back their losses on constituency betting, proving that not all 1 / 10 shots are certain. Overall, they are in front at the moment, but they have the potential to lose a lot if the FF / PD / Green government is formed. Once the government has been finalised, they will begin taking bets on who will fill what ministries.
Election betting is a huge business. The 2007 election saw €1.1m being staked, of which over €400000 was on "Taoiseach betting", over €300000 on constituency betting and the make-up of the next government attracting in excess of €200000. This is a major increase for Paddy Power on the 2002 election, when it took €75000 in total. The company puts the difference down to the closeness and competitiveness of this year, with "favourites changing hands all the time. Polls were up and down and there was generally excitement in the air". A Paddy Power spokesperson told Village that "In the 2002 election, Bertie Ahern was 1 / 50, so it was almost a done deal".