Bertie's spare wheel

When Michael McDowell opened his address to the Fianna Fáil Parliamentary meeting on Tuesday with the words: "Taoiseach and friends", they were greeted with hoots of laughter and someone shouted: "It can only go downhill from here".

It was meant as a joke but it was prophetic. Despite receiving polite applause at the beginning and end of the meeting, McDowell was not among friends and the meeting didn't improve the already fragile relations between the PDs and Fianna Fáil.

The anticipated showdown may not have happened (mainly because McDowell's U-turn on café bars had taken the wind out of his Fianna Fáil critics) but the Justice Minister certainly caught the mood of those present when he parodied himself as a right-wing politician by quipping that the building was surrounded by "my guys and if I'm not out in an hour it'll be stormed".

The Minister began well by outlining his position on reforming the drink laws and promising to consult his Fianna Fáil partners about amendments and new ideas. But the initial levity that greeted him evaporated when he gratuitously offended some Fianna Fáil TDs by disparaging one of the medical experts they had cited to back the case against café bars.

According to some accounts he was briefly heckled and jeered at this point. By the end of the meeting one Fianna Fáil TD said McDowell was on his feet "lecturing us" about how the public would not "forgive us if we resisted his proposals for change". The old arrogance had returned and several Fianna Fáil TDs seethed with indignation. "There's 80 of us and only eight of them," one of them said afterwards, clearly bothered by the minister's effrontery. Bertie Ahern sat silently throughout.

When the meeting broke up, more than half of those who wished to speak had not been reached leading some to ask the PD minister for a return visit.

McDowell said he'd check his diary but it's not clear if there will be a re-run.

In recent months the senior party in Government has run rings around its junior partner, securing victory on aviation policy, café bars, and most recently by delaying McDowell's plans to reform the defamation law. Throw in Mary Harney's woes in health and things begin to look quite bleak forthe PDs.

So bleak in fact that Fianna Fáil TDs are openly speculating about not if, but when their coalition partners will pull out of Government. The thinking is that the Government has hit a brick wall, unable to make progress on a series of issues because of ideological differences. While it suits Bertie and Fianna Fáil to sail the crest of a strong economy and maintain the status quo, the PDs know that if they are not radical (and seen to be delivering on reform and competition) they will be redundant by the next election.

For some the only question is what issue the PDs will seize upon to detonate their exit strategy.

A parting of the ways is unlikely to happen anytime soon and certainly not this side of Christmas but a growing number in Fianna Fáil and the PDs now believe it to be a real possibility and for some even inevitable.

Ironically, a PD pull-out has more chance of destabilising the opposition than precipitating a general election. That's because Bertie has a Plan B: His "spare wheel" of independent TDs from the Fianna Fáil gene pool who could be brought on board (at a price) to keep him in the power he is

accustomed to for a little while longer.

Few doubt that Mary Harney and Bertie Ahern enjoy good personal relations and trust each other, but with the end game in sight, cold political logic will set the agenda because in politics, it's always business and not personal.

Ursula Halligan is TV3's Political Editor and Presenter of The Political Party on Sundays, 5pm, TV3