Bertie will be

Labour-Fianna Fáil government next

Noel Whelan, political commentator, reckons FitzGerald underestimates Fine Gael and overestimates Fianna Fáil and Labour, predicting a Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition

Maybe he is overcompensating for being perceived as biased but, given their respective local election performances, their current poll ratings, and a likely fatigue factor when the election comes in 2007, Garret FitzGerald is being too generous to Fianna Fáil and he is understating Fine Gael's likely gains. He is also being a bit over optimistic for Labour.

To his list of potential Fianna Fáil loses I would add Wicklow, Dublin North and Donegal North East and possibly one in either Longford or Westmeath. On a bad day the party could also lose a seat in Waterford, Cork East or Kildare South. Kerry South on the other hand should be seen as a likely gain for Fianna Fáil.

In Dublin I would see four more Labour seats in trouble than Garret suggests. The constituency redraw around Dublin's commuter belt will see two Labour gains in East Meath and Dublin Mid-West but the other hotly-fought constituency here will be in Dublin South-West. Brian Hayes' probable regain for Fine Gael is as likely to be at Pat Rabbitte's expense as Fianna Fáil's.

Being Labour leaders does not guarantee comfortable re-election as the previous experiences of Ruairí Quinn, Dick Spring and Frank Cluskey have shown. With Sean Ryan retiring in Dublin North, the Socialist Party's Clare Daly is a near cert and Labour can only hold their seat here if Fianna Fáil drop one. In Dublin South-East, Labour's seat is again in jeopardy even with Ruairí Quinn running. In Dublin North-West, Roisín Shortall could be the loser to Sinn Féin not Pat Carey.

I broadly agree with Garret's suggestion of Sinn Féin seat gains although in addition Donegal North East is also a possibility for them and a Sinn Féin gain in Wexford, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out. If Rory O'Hanlon retires as Ceann Comhairle before the next election, or retires as a TD at it, then Sinn Féin might actually win two seats in Cavan-Monaghan, but that's a long shot. On the other hand, Aengus Ó Snodaigh holds a rare entity – a vulnerable Sinn Féin seat.

I agree with Garret that Michael McDowell will hold his seat in Dublin South East, in fact he is likely again to top the poll. Although divisive, McDowell has surely roused the positive passions of more than a fifth of the electorate in these mature suburbs. Predictions of John Gormley's demise have repeatedly been proven premature and he will again hold on. With a Fine Gael regain likely here, Eoin Ryan's absence means that in this constituency Fianna Fáil cannot be guaranteed a seat.

Of course no one can predict the inevitable surprises. The Progressive Democrats (and perhaps Fine Gael) are likely to come up with a couple of new celebrity candidates. Fearful for their seats, Independents like Paudge Connolly, Mildred Fox and Niall Blaney may follow Liam Twomey's example of joining a party. Also, in all recent elections one member of the outgoing cabinet has lost his or her Dáil seat. Martin Cullen is currently the most vulnerable to this threat.

There are more than 90 weeks to the likely election date and that's an eternity in politics but I predict that although with a diminished parliamentary party Bertie Ahern is likely to still have the edge for re-election as Taoiseach. The likely outcome could be:

Fianna Fáil 65

Fine Gael 49

Lab 20

PDs 7

Green Party 5

Sinn Féin 9

Socialist Party 2

Independents 9

In this scenario if both the Socialist Party and Sinn Féin abstain in the vote for Taoiseach, Ahern would have enough with the support of the PDs and "gene pool" independents to win – but the more stable option would be a Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition.

Fine Gael set to win more seats

Mary Kerrigan, political commentator, agrees with Garret FitzGerald that Fine Gael will make the most gains, but she disagress on where those seats will come from

I agree with Garret that Fine Gael stand to make the most gains. Fine Gael is the only major political party actually making gains on the ground, taking two seats in the Leinster constituency Euro Election and making impressive gains in the local elections – the most impressive being in Longford where all 11 candidates put forward were elected. The gutsy, disciplined strategy epitomised by their director of elections in Leinster, Phil Hogan, is paying off. Where I disagree with Garret is as to where those seats will come from.

No gains to Fine Gael:

Carlow-Kilkenny: I can't see Fine Gael picking up a seat here. In the local elections last year, the Fianna Fáil vote in Carlow held, bucking the national trend. Bobby Aylward, brother of Liam who comfortably took a Euro seat, is set to run here and the party should hold their three seats.

Cork North-West: Garret sees an extra seat for Fine Gael at the expense of Fianna Fáil. With Batt O'Keefe in the ring, I doubt it. Batt had to move into this constituency some time back and the word on the ground is that he's never been off the ground since!

Dublin North-East: another constituency Garret targets for a Fine Gael gain at the loss of Fianna Fáil. With Michael Woods running again, and the hugely popular Martin Brady in situ with Labour's Tommy Broughan, I can't see this happening.

North Tipperary: this three seater is a classic battleground between the two major parties. The holding or losing of a seat for Fianna Fáil is solely down to whether or not former Defence Minister, Michael Smith will run. If he steps down, Fine Gael are sure to gain.

Fine Gael gains:

Cork South-Central: the party vote increased dramatically in the local elections. With Joe Walsh possibly retiring in Cork South-West, a Fine Gael gain is on the cards.

Dublin: In the South-East, Fine Gael should recover its lost seat in Garret's old stomping ground, and in Dublin South-West, Brian Hayes should take his seat back at the expense of Fianna Fáil. With Fine Gael's Leo Varadkar's strong showing in Castleknock in the local elections, winning just under 5,000 first preferences, Fine Gael look set to take a seat in Dublin West and if they have the right candidate in Dun Laoghaire, another gain is possible.

Laois-Offaly: Once Fianna Fáil's model "three out of five" constituency, this is shaping up to be a cliff hanger. Charlie Flanagan's defeat to Tom Parlon last time out was a major shock locally. And the Fianna Fáil result in the local elections raised more than a few eyebrows around Tullamore where Barry Cowen had to wait a tad too long before securing a seat. On balance, there is a second seat for Fine Gael, with the real question being at whose expense – Tom Parlon's or Fianna Fáil's.

Limerick East: Fine Gael should pick up a seat here, having only missed it by a breath in 2002.

Wexford: with former independent Liam Twomey now on the ticket, they should have two seats here.

Cavan-Monaghan: I can't see Fianna Fáil gaining a seat at the expense of an Independent, as Garret predicts. This constituency has long been open to single-issue candidates and the hospital issue is still major in the area.

Donegal: Another constituency which will have a major influence on the overall result is Donegal North-East. If Jim McDaid does not go forward, Fianna Fáil are likely to lose a seat here. An additional factor is Independent Fianna Fáil, who did not do well in the local elections last year. Meanwhile Paddy Harte's son, Jimmy Harte polled well for Fine Gael. And then there is Pearse Doherty. Garret predicts he will take a seat in Donegal South-West at Fianna Fáil's expense, but trying to take out Mary Coughlan or Pat "The Cope" Gallagher is some hill to climb. Although he is based in Glenties, he would be better off trying for a seat in the North-East (and given his Euro election performance, that shouldn't be a problem for the Sinn Féin councillor) and if he does run there, he could take either the McDaid or Blaney seat.

Other threats to Fianna Fáil:

I can't see Fianna Fáil returning less than two deputies from Bertie's stomping ground in Dublin Central, nor can I see Sinn Féin taking a seat from Fianna Fáil in Noel Ahern's stomping ground of Dublin North-West. But there are certainly difficulties ahead for the party in Wicklow, with Joe Jacob stepping down. Garret predicts Labour will make a gain – presumably with Nicky Kelly – at the expense of Independent Mildred Fox. I would think it is more likely to be at the expense of Fianna Fáil.

Fine Gael: 55 seats

Frank Flannery, Fine Gael senior party strategist, says Fianna Fáil is unlikely to rally and Fine Gael should not be underestimated

Garret FitzGerald's analysis of how the next general election would pan out if current factors hold true is impressive. But, quite naturally perhaps, he tends to underestimate Fine Gael's prospects, whilst making generous assumptions about Fianna Fáil's capacity to rally when all evidence indicates that the wear and tear factor on this long-running Government is intensifying rather than receding.

We all know it's folly to predict what might happen so far down the road, but if the general election were held today the combined data from the local and European elections, the recent by-elections, patterns in TNS MRBI polls and feedback from each constituency suggests it's a racing certainty that FG would – at the very least – be returning to its post-1997 position with a complement of seats in the mid-50s.

Apart from FG's much higher yields in actual elections than mere opinion polls, its current transfer-friendly status and the fact that a relatively small increase in its vote share from 2002 will result in a sizeable seat bonus means that in addition to the gains for FG that Garret deems likely, we have extremely good prospects in the following:

Clare: where a strong local team mixing youth and experience is well-placed to take a second seat at the expense of the sitting Independent.

Donegal North East: where Senator Joe McHugh is widely expected to make a breakthrough, at the expense of either FF or Ind FF.

Dublin North: where FG will certainly be in the hunt for a seat, and where FF would exceed local expectations by holding two seats.

Dun Laoghaire: where FG are targeting two seats on the back of exceptional local election results, and where the combined FG/Lab/GP vote share of 3.65 quotas would be more likely to yield the fourth seat than the Government's 1.85 quotas would be two, given the personality factors relating to the various candidates.

Galway East: where local knowledge indicates that Fine Gael will regain the second seat from Independents.

Kerry South: where we expect to build again on strong local election results, possibly at the expense of the Independent.

Kildare South: where FF will be under pressure to retain two seats, as they will in most three seat constituencies.

Longford-Westmeath: the home of the Mullingar Accord, where a FG team of strong personalities, which is well placed geographically, will outgun an ageing FF alternative.

Mayo: where the formidable FG team will regain a third seat.

Sligo-North Leitrim: where local information suggests that FF will not win two seats and that the extra seat will go to FG or Labour.

This would yield 55 seats and instead of the hung Dáil that Garret predicts would put FG and Labour very close to, if not past, the winning post on their own.

Of course, nobody can ever contradict Garret with total confidence, but I would contend that it's also highly unlikely that Tommy Broughan will lose out to SF in Dublin North-East; in the absence of Liz O'Donnell, I believe the PDs will lose and Eamon Ryan will hold on in Dublin South; and in Dublin South East the unthinkable may well happen, with John Gormley holding on and FF being left seatless.

Whilst two years is a political eternity, there will be one constant on the ever-changing landscape between now and polling day: unlike 2002, the next election will be a real one.

Labour: four more than predicted

Adrian Langan, Labour's chef de cabinet, thinks this Government's record of delivery will lead to quite a few more Labour gains

The analysis by Garret FitzGerald in last week's edition is a fascinating insight into a possible set of outcomes in each of the constituencies at the next election. But, as he himself freely acknowledges, many (if not all) of the constituencies would require only very modest shifts from the assumptions he makes as of now to result in a very different set of results.

A key element in this type of analysis is the extent to which the new dynamic arising from Labour's decision to enter into an electoral arrangement with Fine Gael to offer an alternative government will affect the final outcome. It is too early yet to be definite about the effect this will have but the early indications are positive.

In terms of specifics, FitzGerald acknowledges, for instance, the extremely strong position of our candidate in Meath East, Dominic Hannigan, and goes on to predict that he will take a seat for Labour in the next election. At the start of this year, based on local election results only, this would not have been seen as in any way a possible gain for Labour, and it was only through securing a candidate of his ability (and his subsequent strong showing in the by-election) that we have created the conditions for a Labour victory here.

If a shift of that size can occur in a constituency like Meath East in less than five months, it is quite conceivable that it could happen in a number of other constituencies as well.

The prediction of two Labour losses in the analysis is one that Labour strongly contests. In Dublin West, it is of course true that the Fine Gael flag-bearer in the local elections did poll very well – on the other hand, limits on general election spending and having to compete for votes directly against Joan Burton will tell a different story.

Predicting the demise of Tommy Broughan in Dublin North-East is a hazardous call. Tommy's extraordinary work rate in the constituency as well as the fact that we out-polled Sinn Féin in the locals in the constituency, without having our Dáil candidate on the ballot paper (whereas they had) makes us confident that (after a very tough battle) we can hold onto the seat.

In terms of the overall picture, calling a plus-four result for Labour is in our view modest – there are a number of other constituencies which we believe we can win – our opponents know it as well. As already pointed out, things can change very quickly in Irish elections – for example what commentator would have called Moosajee Bhamjee's winning in Clare 18 months before the 1992 election? With this government's record of delivery, I think we can expect to see quite a few more Labour gains.

Sinn Féin: FitzGerald's result underestimates SF strength

Pat Doherty MP, Sinn Féin's director of elections, says his party will come out with an increased electoral mandate

Election predictions, especially possibly two years before the event, are a notoriously uncertain business. Garret FitzGerald's assessment is more positive for Fine Gael and Labour than the facts suggest. Where he goes wrong is in underestimating Sinn Féin's growth in communities the length and breath of Ireland.

Over the past ten years Sinn Féin councillors and TDs have provided representation to communities formerly ignored by the three main parties. This has resulted in increased electoral gains for Sinn Féin and an ever-growing number of supporters and young dynamic candidates ready to serve their communities. Factoring this in, Sinn Féin will certainly come out of the next general election with an increased electoral mandate.

Garret FitzGerald's analysis appears to recognise this somewhat in Dublin although he seems to have overlooked some of the constituencies where our growth is phenomenal. Outside of the capital he obviously lacks a feel on the ground in many constituencies. Sinn Féin has made huge electoral inroads into many counties in Leinster, Munster and Connaught.

A brief look at our European and local election results should tell even the most jaundiced observers that the possibility of a Sinn Féin TD representing six new constituencies outside of Dublin is a very real possibility.

The fact is that whether in government or in opposition the three main political parties have failed miserably to represent those most marginalised by the state. In spite of the so called Celtic Tiger, the Government parties have refused to properly invest in the health service, infrastructure, education and housing and have instead made sure that the gap between rich and poor continues to grow at an obscene rate.

There is a real choice in the next general election. It is a choice between those who are working to create an Ireland of equals and those who have created an unequal and divided Ireland. It is a choice between the only all-Ireland party and the partitionist parties. It is a choice between the only growing force in Irish politics and the stagnant array of parties who have failed to inspire the electorate.

It is a choice between political commitment and political careerism. It is a choice between real change and more of the same. It is a choice between Sinn Féin and all the rest. This is the underlining reality that Garret FitzGerald failed to comprehend.

Greens: to hold existing seats and gain one

John Gormley TD, Green Party chairman, thinks he'll hang on in Dublin South-East, and the Greens will gain one seat as well

It's never easy reading predictions about one's political demise. Garret FitzGerald believes that both Eamon Ryan and I are going to get the chop at the next election and that the Greens will come back with a mere four seats. Needless to say, I do not agree with his analysis. Not only can the Greens hold their existing six seats, we can also make modest gains. Our performance will be similar to that of the Democratic Left in the 1997 election. But whereas they lost out narrowly in a number of constituencies, I think the Greens can win narrowly.

In poker they say if you don't know who the sucker is it's probably you. Looking around the card table of Dublin South-East isn't a comfortable feeling. Conventional political wisdom would have it that Michael McDowell and Ruairi Quinn are shoo-ins, that a resurgent Fine Gael are assured of a seat in this true blue area, and that a Fianna Fáil loss would be unprecedented. That leaves me as the fall guy. Be assured that I'll be doing everything to upset the odds, as will Eamon Ryan in Dublin South who has proved himself to be a consummate Dáil performer and a dedicated constituency worker. He'll hang on, as will all of the Green TDs but it will be nip and tuck all the way. And there may well be a few new Green TDs next time out. The local elections have sown green seeds in a number of constituencies. Our hopefuls in targeted areas are Councillor Mary White in Carlow, Councillor Niall O'Brolchain in Galway, who is emerging as a very strong contender in the City of the Tribes; Councillor Deirdre de Burca who is increasingly seen as a radical and effective voice in Wicklow and Councillor Brian Meaney who has been making his presence felt on Clare County Council. And there are others such as Councillor Bronwen Maher, the new Deputy Lord Mayor of Dublin, in Dublin North-Central, Councillor David Healy in the North-East, Councillor Mark Dearey in Louth and Councillor Tony McDermot in the five seater of South-Central, all of them, admittedly, with outside chances.

Remember, the Greens are still on an electoral learning curve, and whereas the electoral wind may or may not be at our back next time, our preparation for the next election will be far better than anything thus far. We'll play our own game, concentrate on our strengths, not allowing ourselves to be distracted by predictions, even if they are from eminent political experts such as Garret FitzGerald.

For what it's worth, I predict that the Greens will hold their existing seats and make one gain. Where that gain will come I'm not quite sure but you can pick any of the above named candidates. If people are looking for real change, a change of policy as opposed to a change of personnel in government, then they will vote for Green policies at the next election.