The Battle for Canada

The Liberal Party leadership convention in Montreal last December began as a typical political affair - 5000 delegates, endless mumbling into mobile phones, clandestine handshakes and pledges of support. But proceedings took an unexpected turn as Stéphane Dion, a low key figure during the election contest, surged from fourth to first place over four ballots to assume the responsibility of leading the federal Liberal party into 2007 and beyond.  John Downing reports from Canada on Dion's election, his environmental politics, the contest between the Liberal and Conservative parties, and relations between Canada and the United States.

After a disastrous year for the Liberals - a 12 year period of dominance was ended in January 2006 when they were ousted from power amid public outrage about the misuse of public funds in Quebec - Dion is the party's great white hope. Immediately after his election, the Liberals rose to a 37 per cent approval rating, 6 points ahead of the Conservatives, something that had not happened since the 2006 federal election. Within two weeks, the numbers had levelled off, leaving the Liberals (36 per cent) and the Conservatives (34 per cent) in a "near dead heat" in the polls as of December 14. 
The soft-spoken ex-environment minister was ostensibly elected on his platform of national unity, environmental sustainability and social justice. "Canadians think about the quality of life of their grandchildren and the next generations," he said in his victory speech. He was also aided greatly by sharp divisions between the camps of the early frontrunners Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae. Whether as a moderate or the lesser of a perceived number of evils, he was the major recipient of transferred votes as candidates were eliminated.

Commentators did not waste anytime in calling him a weak choice, citing lack of charisma and low public recognition. He is the third federal Liberal leader in a row from Quebec but one whose largest handicap may be his staunch opposition to the notion of his own province's independence. The Quebec sovereignty vote of 1995 represented a narrow federalist victory in which Dion was prominent as the chief author of the subsequent Clarity Act which sets out the ground rules for any future sovereignty referendum.

The party faithful were more upbeat back at the convention centre and the manner in which his defeated opponents rallied around him on the stage after the final results were announced seemed genuinely encouraging. The Liberal leadership stood united and in his acceptance speech Dion spoke directly to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper: "Stephen, if you're listening, we are counting the days until the next election.”

Dion is no ordinary politician. Firstly, he was elected Liberal leader on a green platform (he even named his dog ‘Kyoto'), ensuring that environmental issues will be front and centre when the nation next goes to the polls. But can a green mandate really win an election in a G8 nation? Dion's ability to assure voters that environmental progress and economic performance can go hand in hand will be crucial.

Second is Dion's leadership style which represents a victory for substance over style. He has worked hard to rally his troops throughout December, firstly choosing his runner-up in the leadership race, Michael Ignatieff, as deputy party leader. Indeed, he has found desirable roles for all of his leadership rivals, assembling his ‘dream team' as he likes to call it.
A modest person, Dion is lauded by colleagues for his listening skills and willingness to examine issues from various viewpoints – far from the stereotypical authoritarian leader rising through the ranks of the old boys club, never forgetting the friends that helped along the way.

The Battle for Canada

There are only two parties in Canada capable of winning enough votes to form a federal (as distinct from provincial) government: the Liberals and the Conservatives. The NDP, a leftist party with strong urban support, and the Bloc Québécois, the most popular party in Quebec with a strong separatist mandate, are the other main players. Modern Canada has been ruled and defined in large part by the Liberal Party, and major policy positions certainly portray them as left leaning. Chretien stood firmly against the Iraq war and in 2005 Paul Martin tabled legislation recognizing the legitimacy of same-sex marriage. With Dion holding the environment portfolio they signed up for Kyoto, although commitment and making targets are different marks of success. While American authorities complained about the infamous ‘BC bud' flooding US markets the Liberals flirted openly with the idea of decriminalizing cannabis for personal use.  Liberal dominance ended in January 2006 when a Conservative minority government was voted into power. The good ship Canada had a new captain – Stephen Harper.

Harper, a native of oil-rich Alberta, is an advocate of tax cuts, a promoter of family values and an author on hockey. In the 11 months since his election, his government has been very active in pushing its agenda while simultaneously forging an increasingly close relationship with the Bush administration. They have effectively reneged on Canada's commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, introducing their own Clean Air Act that was roundly criticized for lacking short-term goals and hard caps on emissions. They have increased the scale of existing Canadian commitments in Afghanistan, where troops are now on the front line fighting pro-Taliban insurgents, and support the idea of shared missile-defense with the US. Only this month Harper sought to readdress the issue of same-sex marriage in parliament – his motion was defeated comfortably, prompting him to announce the closure of this file for the ‘foreseeable' future.

The chasm between the incumbants and the Dion-led Liberals will provide distinct options to voters in the next election. Dion's political resume makes Harper's job of wooing Quebec that much easier but Dion's green leanings will certainly help the Liberals at the expense of the NDP. There can be no doubt that a Liberal success would represent a clear changing of the guard.

Dion is promoting a ‘much more generous' vision for the country than that of Mr. Harper, a vision of social justice, a strong economy and a healthy environment. To forge ahead and make real progress towards economic and environmental sustainability would test all of his experience and undoubted passion. How much do Canadian voters really care about the environment when the chips are down? Considering the amount of television advertising aimed at environmentally conscious Canadians, it is remarkable a Green MP has never been elected to government.

Dion believes that by embracing new technologies and funding research Canada can lighten its collective ecological footprint, and he would doubtlessly re-instate innovative programs and funding cut by the Harper government. On emissions, Dion's proposed program of tax incentives and regulatory sticks would certainly meet with resistance both from industry and more conservative political groups. To overcome this Dion would have to wield an extraordinary amount of political will whilst showing sensitivity towards business interests. As an environmental engineer in Vancouver said, “[Business] may whine and complain, but at the end of the day [business will] make the changes and be more energy efficient, profitable and competitive for it”.

Under Dion's leadership it is conceivable that Canada could emerge in the vanguard of environmentally conscious governments worldwide.  (Contrast this to the environmental shellacking that Canada took at the latest climate talks in Nairobi under the Conservative government, where Canada won several "fossil of the day" awards – an award presented to countries deemed to have contributed the least to progress in the climate talks.

A Dion-led government would have a second role to play on the global stage. Canada and the US share a mutual dependency built on trade, and harmonious relations with Washington are of course beneficial. The management of this dependency is what concerns so many Canadians who are openly distrustful of the Bush administration's ideology and policies.

Canada's international reputation is at risk as Harper stands accused of towing the line in mirroring US foreign policy positions. Bush administration officials have long argued that Washington should use the United Nations to serve its national interests and the US remains aloof on a number of major global issues, notably climate change and greater human rights protections. Canada, as a little brother of sorts, can use its influence to try and lessen the impact of American unilateralism, provide an example of how North America can do it right, or at the very least not follow the wake of a sinking ship. Confrontation with Washington, especially disagreements of an economic nature, is certainly undesirable but trade disputes are inevitable. There can, however, be no doubt that Canadian support lends credence to American foreign policy.

Dion, when pushed, would not support Harper's call to extend Canada's commitment in Afghanistan until 2009 and this is a clear indicator of what may lie ahead. The minority government could fall as early as this spring when Parliament votes on the 2007 federal budget. Even if the Conservatives can avoid an election on this occasion, it certainly won't be long until the people of Canada have a big decision to make.