Welcome to the new dawn of the Celtic Reich

Michel Barnier, the EU Commissioner for Internal Markets and a Chevalier of the Légion d'Honneur (pictured), sees light at the end of the tunnel for Ireland.

Chevaliers of the Légion d'Honneur must have special vision.

The people who matter, the bond traders, can't see any light. Not even after the beseeching effort of last Thursday to impress the bond traders by more promises to get the state's finances right with a €6 billion down-payment.

Confidence in Ireland has seeped away. Behind all the congratulatory palaver, the international financial community doesn't believe this government knows what it is doing or where it is going - and with good reason.

Remember Monday, September 13 last? That was the first day of the annual scheduled Fianna Fáil drink-in, the one in Galway.

The day before the hoarse interview.

Amid the revelries of the occasion, Fianna Fáil TDs had to listen to the set-piece dreary, self-congratulatory oration of the party leader, talking about how he and his Fianna Fáil ministers had done the devil-and-all for Ireland - built roads and bridges, brought us the smart economy, lots of capital spending. The usual stuff.

Right in the middle of the oration, there was this line: ''It is, of course, imperative that we achieve the €3 billion correction in savings in our budget for next year that we have agreed with the EU Commission."

They were talking at the time - less than eight weeks ago - about the deficit being €7.5 billion.

Now, less than two months later, we have been told that the deficit is €15 billion, not €7.5 billion, and the adjustment in the next budget has got to be €6 billion, not €3 billion.

They say this came as a surprise to them in October, because of interest rates turning out to be higher on the borrowed money, and projections of growth lower.

But didn't they know from the beginning of the year that interest rates were higher than projected?

And didn't they realise that projections for growth had dropped from July onwards?

They told us in September 2008 that the bank bailout would cost us nothing. In September 2009, they said it would cost €23 billion. Now they are saying it will cost us €50 billion.

Why would anyone believe a word these guys are saying?

More than that, why would any sensible bond trader, responsible for managing huge pension funds of workers in Germany and the rest of Europe, risk giving more billions of euro in loans to a country run by such dunderheads?

The bank bailout will almost certainly cost far more than the €50 billion projected, because the assumptions on property prices on which the estimate of the bailout cost were based have already proved false. For instance, they were predicated on property prices in Britain rising, but the opposite has happened.

As for the outline plan presented last Thursday, there is no reason to believe that either. It is predicated on growth of 3.25 per cent in 2012, 3 per cent in 2013 and 2 per cent in 2014.

What likelihood is there that, after a total of nearly €10 billion is taken out of the economy in 2011 and 2012, growth will continue at this rate?

And then there is the spectre of a Fine Gael-Labour coalition.

To be fair to Fine Gael, it is making an honest effort to address the crisis. And to be fair to Labour, it is not making an honest effort to address the crisis. But, together, they probably will deepen suspicions and hasten the arrival of our new rulers, the Celtic Reich.

Therefore, folks, our goose is cooked already.

Come April/May of next year, the Celtic Reich will be in situ, which maybe no bad thing since we have proved so incapable of ruling ourselves.

But there will be a price to pay.

One of those prices will be the end of our low rate of corporation tax that has been such a crucial driving force in our economy for decades by attracting foreign direct investment.

The Celtic Reich won't like our low corporation tax rate, and will insist it goes.

The Celtic Reich probably won't like the high number of public servants we have, and many of them may have to go - involuntarily. God only knows what else.

In a way, we deserve this. Two out of five people voted Fianna Fáil in each of the last three general elections and, even after the depredations that Fianna Fáil has perpetrated, one in five tell the pollsters they will still vote for Fianna Fáil.

The only consolation is that nobody at all may vote for the Greens - not even themselves - given the margin of error in the polls. Some fine mess.