O’Donoghue may be betting on a quick general election

The deferral of resignation until next week is incomprehensible, unless it is in the expectation (hope?) the government and the Dáil will fall before then and he (John O’Donoghue) will go into the election as sitting Ceann Comhairle with a guaranteed seat in the next Dáil. And the chances of that happening are not entirely remote.

Fianna Fail has just 72 guaranteed votes in the Dáil at present. The three Fianna Fail TDs without the whip would be expected to vote in favour of the government in the event of a no-confidence motion. And there are four Independents, including two ex PDs, who can be relied upon. That is a total of 79. But to get to 84 votes plus they need the 6 Green TDs and were the Greens to defect after this coming weekend…..

Curtains.

Meanwhile it was Eamon Gilmore who stole the show in the Dáil yesterday (Tuesday 6 December). It was he who ignited the series of events that forced the Ceann Comhairle to give way. Enda Kenny was a mere bystanders. As was Brian Cowen.

Brian Cowen did however attempt to bolster support for John O’Donoghue. He phoned the Green party leader, John Gormley on several occasions on Tuesday to ask for support for O’Donoghue, a request that as refused.

That Brian Cowen even should have attempted to rescue John O’Donoghue says a lot about Fianna Fail and about his own declining stature.

Roisin Shorthall, the Labour TD for Dublin West, said on the TV3 Tonight programme there was no way Brendan Howling, the Leas Ceann Comhairle and Labour TD for Wexford, would agree to accept the Ceann Comhairle position, which means either someone on the Fianna Fail benches or an Independent (Mary Harney?) has to take the job.

There is the separate question of whether John O’Donoghue will resign his seat next week when he ceases to be Ceann Comhairle. This would make no appreciate difference to the government’s chances of survival for, with the Greens, they would still have 84 votes out of 166, unless there are further defections.