FF-Green the least preferred coalition option among electorate

The RTÉ exit poll showed over 80 per cent were not put off Fianna Fáil by ‘Bertiegate'. By Vincent Browne  

A decisive majority of the electorate found the prospect of a Fianna Fáil-Green government unacceptable, according to the exit poll conducted for RTÉ by Lansdowne Market Research on a large sample of 3,206 voters taken on election day, 24 May. The poll was remarkably accurate in its prediction of the election result – it foretold Fianna Fáil would win 41.6 per cent, which was exactly the percentage won by the party.

The Fianna Fáil-Green coalition prospect was found to be acceptable to 40 per cent of the electorate but unacceptable to 54 per cent. Only the prospect of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government was more unacceptable – 28 per cent found that acceptable and 67 per cent unacceptable.

In fact a coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Green Party was the least preferred coalition option of the electorate. Only 4 per cent of the electorate said this was their preferred outcome, as compared with 30 per cent who said Fianna Fáil-Labour was their preference. Only 3 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters found coalition with the Greens their preferred coalition, as compared with 33 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters who wanted coalition with the PDs and 32 per cent who wanted Fianna Fáil on their own.

• The poll gave further insights into the mind of the electorate on polling day:

• Nearly two thirds of Fianna Fáil voters (64 per cent) transferred to the PDs.
• Half of Fine Gael voters transferred to Labour and 43 per cent of Labour voters transferred to Fine Gael.
• More older voters voted for Fianna Fáil than did younger voters – 45  per cent on the 50-64 age group and 49  per cent in the 65+, as compared with only 35  in the 18-24 group.
• Labour did better with the younger voters in general – 12 per cent in the 18-24 group as compared with 10 per cent generally.
• The Greens did best proportionately with the younger voters – 8 per cent of the 18-24 group voted Green as compared with just 5 per cent nationally.
• A surprising 12 per cent decided on how they would vote either on polling day or the previous day and of these 40 per cent voted Fianna Fáil.
• Over a quarter of the electorate (27 per cent) voted the way they always vote and 56 per cent of them voted Fianna Fáil and 26 per cent voted Fine Gael.
• Of everyone who voted Fianna Fáil more than a third (35 per cent) had always voted Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent decided to do so before the election was called, 16 per cent decided to vote for the party 2-3 weeks before the election, 15 per cent in the previous week and 12 per cent on the day of the poll or the previous day.
• Over a fifth of voters switched their vote from the previous election and of these most of them (65 per cent) were in the age group 35-64.
• Of the voters who switched their vote from the previous election, 18 per cent voted Fianna Fáil, 29 per cent voted Fine Gael, 14 per cent voted Labour, 10 per cent Greens and Sinn Féin.
• Over 40 per cent of those who switched from Fianna Fáil switched to Fine Gael and 22 per cent to Labour. Of those who switched from Fine Gael, 43 per cent went to Fianna Fáil.
• Fianna Fáil got only 28 per cent of first time voters. Fine Gael got 27 per cent of them, Labour 16 per cent, Greens 9, Sinn Féin 11 per cent.
• Of Fianna Fáil voters, 44 per cent said they were “close” to the party, only 34 per cent of Fine Gael voters said they were “close” to that party.

Health was by far the issue that voters said influenced their vote – 20 per cent gave it first mention and 45 per cent gave it a later mention as influencing them, a total of 65 per cent. Crime merited only 34 per cent, managing the economy only 33 per cent, cost of living 26 per cent, education 19 per cent, experience of government just 19 per cent, honesty and integrity just 14 per cent.

An amazing 39 per cent said choosing a candidate to look after their constituency was the most important factor in deciding who to vote for. Just 24 per cent said policies were the most important factor, 22 per cent said choosing a Taoiseach, and just 12 per cent said choosing a set of ministers.

But perhaps the most startling insight is that 75 per cent said “Bertigate” was not an issue in influencing their vote and 6 per cent said it made them decide to vote for Fianna Fáil.